The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (US) created something known as Opportunity Zones. These are low-income and high-poverty census tracts that are designed to attract investment by offering a number of different tax benefits. I first wrote about it on the blog, here.

Now that some time has passed since the final Opportunity Zones were announced, Zillow Economic Research decided to look at the possible impact of this designation on real estate values. In other words: To what extent, if at all, are the tax benefits getting capitalized into the value of the properties?

Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in the 12-month moving average sale price for low-income census tracts that were (1) eligible and selected as an Opportunity Zone; (2) eligible and not selected; and (3) not eligible.

Fred Wilson made an interesting remark in his recent post about the current "IPO bonanza" that is taking place in the tech space. He is, of course, talking about the recent IPO of Lyft, the recent S-1 filings from Pinterest and others, and the expected filings from Uber, Airbnb, and so on.

After listing the benefits of going public, he went on to say that this bonanza will surely also mean that it is going to become even more unaffordable in the Bay Area. Part of this is perhaps self-serving, since he operates a VC firm out of NYC. (Take your money and move to NYC.)

But the data suggests that there is truth to this.

When Twitter when public in 2013, it was estimated that it created some 1,600 millionaires. This is great for the local startup ecosystem as many of these beneficiaries could go on to found their own companies and create a whole new batch of jobs. The money gets recycled.

But what does it do to the local housing market -- especially a supply-constrained one like that of the Bay Area where it is difficult to build?

I was reading today about some houses in Boca Raton, Florida selling for as low as $1. The reason they're selling for nothing, in some cases, is because you're required to join the local golf/country club as part of the purchase. Initiation fees could be in the range of $70,000 and that doesn't include whatever ongoing fees you would also be responsible for paying. What this demonstrates is that there isn't enough demand from the next generation to sustain the pricing for this housing type. Part of this probably has to do with simply cohort size (the number of people retiring), but I suspect that there may have also been some changes in consumer preference. Some of it is probably golf related. Participation in the sport is relatively tepid among Millennials. And some of it may be related to the fact that these communities don't have the kind of (urban?) amenities that the next generation is looking for. But if you derived enjoyment from the home during your retirement years, maybe it's not the end of the world that there isn't a strong resale market.