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This UN report (2018) on urbanization trends is a fascinating way to understand how our world is growing and changing. So today's post is about some of my takeaways. If you have others, feel free to add them to the comment section below.
But first, some definitions.
The UN report considers 3 ways to measure the size of a city, all of which we have used before on this blog. The first is the "city proper." That is the current administrative boundary of a city. The second is the "urban agglomeration" area, which is a city's contiguous built-up area. And the third is the "metropolitan area," which is the approximate area of economic and social interconnectedness.
Above is what these 3 boundaries might look like for Toronto (which is the example they use in their report). About the only one that isn't debatable is the "city proper" boundary; but it really doesn't capture the full extent of a city. Wherever possible, the UN report relies on the city's urban agglomeration area. They also define a "megacity" as a city of over 10 million people.
The largest city in the world is currently Tokyo. However, from 2018 to 2030 it is expected to decline by almost 900,000 people. Whereas, the city in 2nd position -- Delhi -- is expected to add more than 10 million inhabitants during this same time period. By 2030, these are expected to be the largest cities in the world:
Most current megacities are located in what the UN refers to as the "Global South." And 9 out of the 10 cities projected to become megacities by 2030 are located in developing countries. The one exception is London. Though all regions in the world are becoming more urban, the real population growth is happening in Asia and Africa.
Most cities -- 59% of cities with 500,000 or more people -- are at risk of at least one natural disaster. And 3 megacities -- namely Manila, Osaka, and Tokyo -- are high risk for 3 or more types of natural disaster.
Going through the report's data charts, it's also interesting to note that Toronto is not projected to become a megacity by 2030. However, the Toronto area already represents over 20% of Canada's entire urban population.
In the United States, Chicago's urban agglomeration is projected to continuing growing and does come close to megacity status by 2030. The Miami region is similarly expected to grow and is actually right on top of Toronto in terms of population. But the fastest growing regions are, of course, expected to be the city's that can more easily sprawl (Las Vegas, Phoenix, and so on).
Bogotá, Colombia is already a megacity and is expected to add almost 2 million people by 2030. It currently represents about 26.5% of the country's entire urban population. São Paulo remains one of the top 10 largest cities in the world and is similarly projected to add over 2 million people in the same time period, but to a much larger base.
In Europe, it's London, Paris, and Moscow, with the latter two already in possession of megacity status.
Now quantity isn't everything. Despite not ranking in the top 10 in terms of population, both New York and London are widely considered to be the world's preeminent global cities. At the same time, we do know that the size of a city does create certain socioeconomic benefits. Urban agglomerations create agglomeration economies.
If you'd like to download a copy of the World's Cities in 2018 (United Nations), click here.
Charts/Maps: United Nations
Applications to American business schools, including MBA programs, have fallen for five straight years according to this recent WSJ article.
Compared to last year, business school applications to US schools are down about 9.1%; whereas they have been rising in other parts of the world. If you look at the change in applications from international students, the drop is even more significant -- about 13.7%.
Here are two charts from the WSJ:
Over the weekend, Qantas Airways set a new record with a nonstop ultra long haul flight from New York to Sydney. At a distance of 16,200 kilometers and a duration of 19 and a half hours, this is now the world's longest flight. Though, this was still a test voyage. It remains to be seen whether this will be a commercially viable route. The company also plans to offer a similar ultra long haul from London.
It's fascinating to think about the logistics that go into a flight like this. The flight took off with its fuel tanks maxed out at 101 tons. But
There are a couple of possible explanations for this. Tech is/has been hot. I would imagine that space has been absorbing many people who would have historically gone to do an MBA.
But perhaps more significantly, stricter immigration policies are making it harder for international students to come to the US. At the same time, top tier alternatives are emerging around the world, such as in China.
China exports more business school students than any other country and they are by far the largest international student base in the US. But the numbers are coming down. At the peak in 2015, the US issued nearly 275,000 student visas to people from China. By 2017, that number had more than halved to 112,817.
Out of curiosity, I decided to look up the class profile for the most recent Rotman MBA cohort (my alma mater). 70% of the class was born outside of Canada. That's not surprising.
Charts: WSJ
Similarly, every ten passengers roughly equates to one ton (200 pounds per person). So there's a balancing act between reducing weight (optimizing fuel consumption) and maximizing revenue (adding lots of people). There's also a question of how best to price discriminate across economy, premium economy, and first class.
Initially these ultra long haul flights were imagined to be flying hotels, where people could sleep, workout, and do all sorts of other things while they traveled halfway around the world. But the economics didn't work. Too much wasted space on non-revenue generating items.
The other interesting thing about these ultra long haul flights is how much work goes into passenger comfort, specifically around our body's natural rhythms. Angus Whitley of Bloomberg was onboard this maiden voyage and he talks about how the food they served -- spiced with things like chili and lime -- was designed to fire up your clock when you shouldn't be sleeping.
And this isn't new a feature of ultra long hauls. Qantas already employs things like hot chocolate laced with tryptophan in order to help people sleep onboard. I'm not great at sleeping on planes, generally because I don't fit in the seats very well. But maybe it's because I've been passing on the hot chocolate.
Image: Qantas via Bloomberg
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