This month, Amazon announced that it will be opening a new 230,000 sf big box store in the suburbs of Chicago. Half of the store will be consumer-facing, where customers can browse aisles for groceries, household items, and general merchandise, and the other half will serve as a kind of micro-fulfillment center.

Supposedly, the municipality applied a restriction to the lands requiring it to be a consumer-facing store; it can't just be for fulfillment. But it seems that some kinds are allowed.

My understanding is that the "fulfillment" component of the project will allow customers to order (on kiosks throughout the store) certain items "from the back" and have them delivered to the front of the store for checkout. Importantly, it also decouples inventory management and optimizes the back-of-house for online grocery.

This is a big store; bigger than even a Walmart Supercenter. It also sits on a 35-acre site, which means the lot coverage is only around 15%. However, there's also a large stormwater management pond and room for additional pad buildings based on this site plan:

A store this massive is a fascinating signal because it's a clear admission from Amazon that it needs to get its brick-and-mortar strategy right if it wants to compete in grocery. Even after its Whole Foods acquisition, it's only about 3% of the US grocery market, whereas Walmart is sitting at over 20%.

Ten years ago, it did not feel like this would be where we would end up. Retail as a real estate asset class was out of favor. Brick-and-mortar retail seemed destined to be disrupted by e-commerce and drone delivery. But retail evolved and grocery proved to be a unique facet of retail. At least so far.

Cover photo by Brittani Burns on Unsplash

Wing, the aerial delivery company owned by Alphabet, recently announced an expansion to 150 more Walmart stores across the US this year. This also includes four new cities: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Miami, and Cincinnati. The company now says that it has completed over 750,000 deliveries since it launched in 2012. And the goal is to be flying out of 270 Walmart locations by 2027.

There was a period over a decade ago when drone delivery was in its "hype phase." This also coincided with retail being out of favor as a real estate asset class. Drones made e-commerce seem even more threatening. Then things quieted down when regulation, noise, privacy, and other obstacles got in the way of the drone hype. But as with all new and promising technologies, the building continued, just less publicly.

Noise and privacy are serious concerns, but I understand that there are now "bladeless" drones and drones that use shrouds to direct sound upward. For the sake of argument, let's assume these problems can be solved. Now I wonder: Who is this for and where do they live?

Because of weight limitations, drone delivery payloads tend to be smaller items (under five pounds). And because there's only so far that these drones can fly on a single battery charge, they tend to be for quick local deliveries. So, the use case seems to be for people who don't have the luxury of being able to walk 10 minutes to a corner store, or can't be bothered to do so.

This also aligns with the early adopters of this tech: people who live in suburban homes and have driveways where a drone can easily land. This makes sense as an easy first solution, though I think you could make the case that landing on the roof of a tall building might actually be less conspicuous and disruptive at scale.

As it stands, drone delivery is an overwhelmingly suburban solution. The environment is convenient for takeoff and landing, and it's an environment where fetching small items probably isn't convenient. This solves that. And the company appears to be scaling. But how far will it go? And will it ever become a widespread urban solution?

There are now over 2,300 cities and towns across the US where Amazon offers free same-day grocery delivery for Prime members. This means a 2-hour delivery from an Amazon Fresh or Whole Foods Market. And apparently, 90% of what people buy this way is perishable, namely, fruit. Perishable food purchases also increased 30x this year, according to the company.

When it comes to online grocery shopping, this falls under what is typically referred to as the "delivery" bucket. There are three main shopping categories. The delivery bucket, which is now the largest category, gets fulfilled through a local grocery store. It's an Instacart worker or someone else collecting your food and delivering it to your home.

The next largest bucket is pickup, or click-and-collect. This is where a consumer buys what they want online and then picks it up in person. Lastly, there's the ship-to-home category. This is typically for non-perishable products, and the difference here is that the goods are coming from a distribution center, as opposed to a local grocery store. Think of it like a typical purchase from Amazon.

The grocery model continues to evolve rapidly. But local stores — and the real estate that houses them — seem to be remaining central to it. In Toronto, I don't normally shop at Whole Foods Market, but there is one very close to Parkview Mountain House that I like shopping at when I'm in Park City. And every time I go, it feels more like an Amazon store.

There's special pricing and deals for Prime members. The Amazon One palm scanning technology is at every register. And there's an Amazon return facility in the store to deal with that thing you erroneously ordered from China. It's all becoming seamlessly integrated with the broader Amazon ecosystem.

So from a real estate standpoint, the brick-and-mortar store is not being supplanted in the way that people once speculated. The physical store is just continuing to evolve to meet a changing omnichannel landscape, acting as a grocery store, distribution center, physical customer service center, casual restaurant, and more.

If anything, this makes the real estate more, rather than less, valuable.

Cover photo by Karsten Winegeart on Unsplash

This month, Amazon announced that it will be opening a new 230,000 sf big box store in the suburbs of Chicago. Half of the store will be consumer-facing, where customers can browse aisles for groceries, household items, and general merchandise, and the other half will serve as a kind of micro-fulfillment center.

Supposedly, the municipality applied a restriction to the lands requiring it to be a consumer-facing store; it can't just be for fulfillment. But it seems that some kinds are allowed.

My understanding is that the "fulfillment" component of the project will allow customers to order (on kiosks throughout the store) certain items "from the back" and have them delivered to the front of the store for checkout. Importantly, it also decouples inventory management and optimizes the back-of-house for online grocery.

This is a big store; bigger than even a Walmart Supercenter. It also sits on a 35-acre site, which means the lot coverage is only around 15%. However, there's also a large stormwater management pond and room for additional pad buildings based on this site plan:

A store this massive is a fascinating signal because it's a clear admission from Amazon that it needs to get its brick-and-mortar strategy right if it wants to compete in grocery. Even after its Whole Foods acquisition, it's only about 3% of the US grocery market, whereas Walmart is sitting at over 20%.

Ten years ago, it did not feel like this would be where we would end up. Retail as a real estate asset class was out of favor. Brick-and-mortar retail seemed destined to be disrupted by e-commerce and drone delivery. But retail evolved and grocery proved to be a unique facet of retail. At least so far.

Cover photo by Brittani Burns on Unsplash

Wing, the aerial delivery company owned by Alphabet, recently announced an expansion to 150 more Walmart stores across the US this year. This also includes four new cities: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Miami, and Cincinnati. The company now says that it has completed over 750,000 deliveries since it launched in 2012. And the goal is to be flying out of 270 Walmart locations by 2027.

There was a period over a decade ago when drone delivery was in its "hype phase." This also coincided with retail being out of favor as a real estate asset class. Drones made e-commerce seem even more threatening. Then things quieted down when regulation, noise, privacy, and other obstacles got in the way of the drone hype. But as with all new and promising technologies, the building continued, just less publicly.

Noise and privacy are serious concerns, but I understand that there are now "bladeless" drones and drones that use shrouds to direct sound upward. For the sake of argument, let's assume these problems can be solved. Now I wonder: Who is this for and where do they live?

Because of weight limitations, drone delivery payloads tend to be smaller items (under five pounds). And because there's only so far that these drones can fly on a single battery charge, they tend to be for quick local deliveries. So, the use case seems to be for people who don't have the luxury of being able to walk 10 minutes to a corner store, or can't be bothered to do so.

This also aligns with the early adopters of this tech: people who live in suburban homes and have driveways where a drone can easily land. This makes sense as an easy first solution, though I think you could make the case that landing on the roof of a tall building might actually be less conspicuous and disruptive at scale.

As it stands, drone delivery is an overwhelmingly suburban solution. The environment is convenient for takeoff and landing, and it's an environment where fetching small items probably isn't convenient. This solves that. And the company appears to be scaling. But how far will it go? And will it ever become a widespread urban solution?

There are now over 2,300 cities and towns across the US where Amazon offers free same-day grocery delivery for Prime members. This means a 2-hour delivery from an Amazon Fresh or Whole Foods Market. And apparently, 90% of what people buy this way is perishable, namely, fruit. Perishable food purchases also increased 30x this year, according to the company.

When it comes to online grocery shopping, this falls under what is typically referred to as the "delivery" bucket. There are three main shopping categories. The delivery bucket, which is now the largest category, gets fulfilled through a local grocery store. It's an Instacart worker or someone else collecting your food and delivering it to your home.

The next largest bucket is pickup, or click-and-collect. This is where a consumer buys what they want online and then picks it up in person. Lastly, there's the ship-to-home category. This is typically for non-perishable products, and the difference here is that the goods are coming from a distribution center, as opposed to a local grocery store. Think of it like a typical purchase from Amazon.

The grocery model continues to evolve rapidly. But local stores — and the real estate that houses them — seem to be remaining central to it. In Toronto, I don't normally shop at Whole Foods Market, but there is one very close to Parkview Mountain House that I like shopping at when I'm in Park City. And every time I go, it feels more like an Amazon store.

There's special pricing and deals for Prime members. The Amazon One palm scanning technology is at every register. And there's an Amazon return facility in the store to deal with that thing you erroneously ordered from China. It's all becoming seamlessly integrated with the broader Amazon ecosystem.

So from a real estate standpoint, the brick-and-mortar store is not being supplanted in the way that people once speculated. The physical store is just continuing to evolve to meet a changing omnichannel landscape, acting as a grocery store, distribution center, physical customer service center, casual restaurant, and more.

If anything, this makes the real estate more, rather than less, valuable.

Cover photo by Karsten Winegeart on Unsplash