I have been through two major downturns in my real estate career. The first was the 2007-2008 financial crisis. And the second is what's happening right now. Right before the first one, I was working for a small real estate developer/consultancy in Dublin and, let me tell you, it was an exuberant time. Ireland was at what ended up being the tale end of its "Celtic Tiger" and everything was possible.

One of the projects I was working on was the proposed U2 Tower at the mouth of the River Liffey in the Docklands area. We were running the international design competition to select an architect and everyone from Foster and Partners to Zaha Hadid was participating. It was going to be the tallest tower on the island of Ireland and in the penthouse was going to be a recording studio for the rock band U2.

But then, the great financial crisis happened and the tower got cancelled. By then, I had returned from the US (where I was finishing grad school) to work in Toronto. The writing was starting to be on the wall, but I managed to get a summer internship for a developer. By fall, shit had hit the fan and they reneged on my full-time offer, citing that the market was just too bad.

In reality, though, things were much worse in the US. I vividly remember developers claiming that it would take decades for development to return to feasibility. That's how bad things felt. In hindsight, this was pivotal timing for me for two reasons. One, it taught me early on in my career just how bad things can get in real estate, and I try to always remember that. And two, it forced me out of the US after graduation.

I had initially planned to stay and work there for a few years, but there were simply no real estate jobs and, if there was one, they weren't going to hire a Canadian with a background in architecture. Who knows where I would have ended up had I stayed. Despite it being my plan, it's possible I may have never returned to Toronto.

During this period, I remember thinking to myself that development is super risky, it shuts off periodically, and so it's a good idea to also own long-term assets with long-term leases, like office buildings. And after returning to Toronto, I ultimately went to work for a company that did both development and that owned office buildings, among other commercial assets.

This seemed like a reasonable approach up until 2020, which is of course when office buildings were negatively impacted by the pandemic. But I don't know how anyone could have predicted this. It was truly a black swan event that had far reaching implications on real estate beyond just office assets.

But here's the thing: I feel lucky with the timing I've had. These are the best times to be starting something. During the first cycle, I was just starting my real estate career and it taught me things. And now, during this current downturn, I'm focused on growing Globizen. It's hard to imagine a better time to find opportunities that the rest of the market may be overlooking or simply can't execute on.

Roncesvalles Avenue is a successful north-south main street in the west end of Toronto. I say successful, because it is truly a great street. It has transit, bike lanes, a fine-grained built form, and lots of interesting retail:

But it is somewhat unique in that a large section of it is a one-sided retail street. Meaning, it looks like this:

This obviously isn't a fatal flaw. It remains a wonderful street. And there are lots of examples of thriving one-sided retail streets. Ocean Drive in Miami Beach immediately comes to mind (notwithstanding the fact that locals tend not to go to it).

But conventional retail wisdom does dictate that two sides are better than one. Consider this 2023 report by Cushman & Wakefield ranking the top global main streets across the world. All of the streets that I have been to before are two-sided:

• 5th Avenue in New York between 49th and 60th (above 60th is, incidentally, when the street converts to single-sided because of Central Park)

• Montenapoleone in Milan

• The main street of Tsim Sha Tsui in Hong Kong

• New Bond Street in London

• Avenues des Champs-Élysées in Paris

• Grafton Street in in Dublin

• Passeig de Gracia in Barcelona

• Bloor Street in Toronto

These are all two-sided retail streets.

None of this is to say that the west side of Roncesvalles has nothing going on. It has a diverse mixture of uses, including churches, libraries, apartments, and many other things. But I think there is still an argument to be made that it has been hamstrung by restrictive zoning.

That said, Roncevalles is defined as a "major street" in Toronto's Official Plan and so it does fall under the city's new Major Street Study. Maybe that changes things.

These are the current (well, 2019) and targeted (2028) mode share splits for Dublin city centre (sourced from here):

The biggest planned change is a ~41% reduction in cars, taxis & goods entering the city centre. More specifically though, the plan contemplates a reduction in the number of cars in the core. The number of taxis and goods being moved around are both expected to increase.

To achieve this, the city is targeting drivers that pass through rather than stop in the city centre. Supposedly, about two out of every three drivers are currently doing this, and so the goal will be to redirect them.

Though, to be clear, this is not a plan to stop people from driving into the city centre. It is rightly about reducing the amount of road space allocated to private vehicles, prioritizing other modes of transport, and creating more "traffic-free civic spaces" for Dubliners and visitors.

Of course, this is what many cities around the world are trying to do. So perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of this plan is that most Dubliners actually support it.

According to The Irish Times, the plan received more than 3,500 public submissions, and 81% supported "reducing road space for private vehicles to facilitate a more efficient public transport system." Further, 82% said they wanted more pedestrianized public spaces.

There were, however, some concerns expressed. The carpark operators in the city centre are naturally worried about the impact to their businesses. This is expected and self-serving.

Guinness (owned by Diageo) is also asking about how its delivery trucks will get to and from their brewery. This is obviously a crucial consideration. But I'm confident in saying that, whatever gets implemented, I'm sure that nobody is going to mess with the operations of St. James's Gate Brewery.

In fact, I'd be surprised if this weren't written into the Constitution of Ireland somewhere.