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Wing, the aerial delivery company owned by Alphabet, recently announced an expansion to 150 more Walmart stores across the US this year. This also includes four new cities: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Miami, and Cincinnati. The company now says that it has completed over 750,000 deliveries since it launched in 2012. And the goal is to be flying out of 270 Walmart locations by 2027.
There was a period over a decade ago when drone delivery was in its "hype phase." This also coincided with retail being out of favor as a real estate asset class. Drones made e-commerce seem even more threatening. Then things quieted down when regulation, noise, privacy, and other obstacles got in the way of the drone hype. But as with all new and promising technologies, the building continued, just less publicly.
Noise and privacy are serious concerns, but I understand that there are now "bladeless" drones and drones that use shrouds to direct sound upward. For the sake of argument, let's assume these problems can be solved. Now I wonder: Who is this for and where do they live?
Because of weight limitations, drone delivery payloads tend to be smaller items (under five pounds). And because there's only so far that these drones can fly on a single battery charge, they tend to be for quick local deliveries. So, the use case seems to be for people who don't have the luxury of being able to walk 10 minutes to a corner store, or can't be bothered to do so.
This also aligns with the early adopters of this tech: people who live in suburban homes and have driveways where a drone can easily land. This makes sense as an easy first solution, though I think you could make the case that landing on the roof of a tall building might actually be less conspicuous and disruptive at scale.
As it stands, drone delivery is an overwhelmingly suburban solution. The environment is convenient for takeoff and landing, and it's an environment where fetching small items probably isn't convenient. This solves that. And the company appears to be scaling. But how far will it go? And will it ever become a widespread urban solution?
Drone delivery is one of those things that has always sounded really cool, but has yet to see a lot of adoption. As of May of this year, Amazon Prime Air has only made about 100 drone deliveries in California and Texas (the two states where it operates). This is compared to their initial target of 10,000 deliveries before the end of 2023.
That said, last week, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved UPS (as well as other companies) to fly drones "beyond visual line of sight." This seems like a pretty important approval, because I don't know how you deliver anything meaningful if somebody needs to keep the drone within their line of sight.
The thing that I can't get over in my mind, though, is how you deal with the noise population associated with lots of drones flying around. It's one thing if you live in a low-density community and a lonely drone comes by once in a blue moon to say hello. But in the city, even just replacing every cubed-shaped Uber Eats backpack would equal a hell of a lot of drones.
Presumably they would fly, at least some of the time, on top of our existing streets, just above the cars. Because the authorization is only for altitudes below 400 feet. So for tall buildings, you wouldn't always be able to do deliveries from the roof. And I guess that would be fine so long as they stop sounding like giant insects.
If that were to be the case, it's interesting to think about what that would do to all the real estate that exists at that same elevation.
Wing, the aerial delivery company owned by Alphabet, recently announced an expansion to 150 more Walmart stores across the US this year. This also includes four new cities: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Miami, and Cincinnati. The company now says that it has completed over 750,000 deliveries since it launched in 2012. And the goal is to be flying out of 270 Walmart locations by 2027.
There was a period over a decade ago when drone delivery was in its "hype phase." This also coincided with retail being out of favor as a real estate asset class. Drones made e-commerce seem even more threatening. Then things quieted down when regulation, noise, privacy, and other obstacles got in the way of the drone hype. But as with all new and promising technologies, the building continued, just less publicly.
Noise and privacy are serious concerns, but I understand that there are now "bladeless" drones and drones that use shrouds to direct sound upward. For the sake of argument, let's assume these problems can be solved. Now I wonder: Who is this for and where do they live?
Because of weight limitations, drone delivery payloads tend to be smaller items (under five pounds). And because there's only so far that these drones can fly on a single battery charge, they tend to be for quick local deliveries. So, the use case seems to be for people who don't have the luxury of being able to walk 10 minutes to a corner store, or can't be bothered to do so.
This also aligns with the early adopters of this tech: people who live in suburban homes and have driveways where a drone can easily land. This makes sense as an easy first solution, though I think you could make the case that landing on the roof of a tall building might actually be less conspicuous and disruptive at scale.
As it stands, drone delivery is an overwhelmingly suburban solution. The environment is convenient for takeoff and landing, and it's an environment where fetching small items probably isn't convenient. This solves that. And the company appears to be scaling. But how far will it go? And will it ever become a widespread urban solution?
Drone delivery is one of those things that has always sounded really cool, but has yet to see a lot of adoption. As of May of this year, Amazon Prime Air has only made about 100 drone deliveries in California and Texas (the two states where it operates). This is compared to their initial target of 10,000 deliveries before the end of 2023.
That said, last week, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved UPS (as well as other companies) to fly drones "beyond visual line of sight." This seems like a pretty important approval, because I don't know how you deliver anything meaningful if somebody needs to keep the drone within their line of sight.
The thing that I can't get over in my mind, though, is how you deal with the noise population associated with lots of drones flying around. It's one thing if you live in a low-density community and a lonely drone comes by once in a blue moon to say hello. But in the city, even just replacing every cubed-shaped Uber Eats backpack would equal a hell of a lot of drones.
Presumably they would fly, at least some of the time, on top of our existing streets, just above the cars. Because the authorization is only for altitudes below 400 feet. So for tall buildings, you wouldn't always be able to do deliveries from the roof. And I guess that would be fine so long as they stop sounding like giant insects.
If that were to be the case, it's interesting to think about what that would do to all the real estate that exists at that same elevation.
One of Alphabet's moonshot projects is an autonomous delivery drone service called Wing. As far as I can tell, they're only company offering this kind of service to the general public in North America -- though they are only operating in a few test locations in Virginia, Finland, and Australia.
Specifically:
Canberra, Australia
Logan, Australia
Helsinki, Finland
Christiansburg, United States
Not surprisingly, demand for Wing deliveries has surged during this pandemic. According to the Verge, the company made over 1,000 deliveries in the past two weeks, which represents a doubling of deliveries in the US and Australia. The most popular items seem to be essentials like toilet paper and coffee.
This is perhaps a good example of the argument that COVID-19 isn't going to change things per se, it will simply accelerate the adoption of things that were already in the process of happening. I was and am of the opinion that drones will become an integral part of delivery logistics. (Full disclosure: I own a bit of Alphabet and Drone Delivery Canada stock.)
There is still a lot that will need to happen. Alphabet/Wing is also working on an autonomous traffic management platform, because you obviously need something robust if you're going to scale this up. How you make this work in dense urban environments is also a whole other kettle of fish, though already people are starting to reconsider how rooftops are used.
For more on Wing, click here.
Image: Wing
One of Alphabet's moonshot projects is an autonomous delivery drone service called Wing. As far as I can tell, they're only company offering this kind of service to the general public in North America -- though they are only operating in a few test locations in Virginia, Finland, and Australia.
Specifically:
Canberra, Australia
Logan, Australia
Helsinki, Finland
Christiansburg, United States
Not surprisingly, demand for Wing deliveries has surged during this pandemic. According to the Verge, the company made over 1,000 deliveries in the past two weeks, which represents a doubling of deliveries in the US and Australia. The most popular items seem to be essentials like toilet paper and coffee.
This is perhaps a good example of the argument that COVID-19 isn't going to change things per se, it will simply accelerate the adoption of things that were already in the process of happening. I was and am of the opinion that drones will become an integral part of delivery logistics. (Full disclosure: I own a bit of Alphabet and Drone Delivery Canada stock.)
There is still a lot that will need to happen. Alphabet/Wing is also working on an autonomous traffic management platform, because you obviously need something robust if you're going to scale this up. How you make this work in dense urban environments is also a whole other kettle of fish, though already people are starting to reconsider how rooftops are used.
For more on Wing, click here.
Image: Wing
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