This past weekend I toured my friend's purpose-built rental project in Wynwood, called Midtown 29. It was completed last year and has already been stabilized.
Real estate development is very much a local business. It is that way because so much of it is driven by relationships, but also because every market has its own little idiosyncrasies.
This is always valuable to see. Sometimes we do things in our home market because it makes perfect sense to do so and sometimes we do it just because it's, "the way we've always done it."
One of the most obvious things about development in South Florida is that the parking is always above-grade. No basements. That has the result of bringing down construction costs; though I understand that, with sea level rise, insurance costs are on the rise.
If (or when) this whole autonomous vehicle thing does in fact take hold, it's going to be a hell of lot easier to convert all of that excess parking in Miami than it will be in Toronto.
As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
Over the winter I visited BMW World, and its neighboring museum, in Munich, Germany. I loved seeing how the company got its start and how far it has come since it helped to invent the automobile at the beginning of the 20th century. I think their first product was actually an airplane engine. But you and I both know that the paradigm is changing. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is going away and pretty soon we won't be driving, so much as being driven around by our cars. Bloomberg recently published an interesting article about this shift and about BMW. Here is an excerpt:
The fact that both combustion engines and electric motors find themselves inside the same 18,000-person complex in Dingolfing, BMW’s largest in Europe, makes it a microcosm of a shift overtaking automakers the world over. A visitor can see that 625-horsepower engine—more than twice as powerful as the original from 1985, a luxury product relentlessly branded as “the ultimate driving machine”—then walk around the corner and see its puny electric replacement. You start thinking the better slogan might be “the ultimate combustion engine.” As in: last of its kind.
Electric motors are a hell of a lot simpler to manufacture (and service) than gasoline engines. BMW estimates that they take about 30% less time to make. So the impacts of this transformation span everything from supply chain to human capital. Today, about 10% of the work that goes on in Dingolfing is related to electric vehicles.
This past weekend I toured my friend's purpose-built rental project in Wynwood, called Midtown 29. It was completed last year and has already been stabilized.
Real estate development is very much a local business. It is that way because so much of it is driven by relationships, but also because every market has its own little idiosyncrasies.
This is always valuable to see. Sometimes we do things in our home market because it makes perfect sense to do so and sometimes we do it just because it's, "the way we've always done it."
One of the most obvious things about development in South Florida is that the parking is always above-grade. No basements. That has the result of bringing down construction costs; though I understand that, with sea level rise, insurance costs are on the rise.
If (or when) this whole autonomous vehicle thing does in fact take hold, it's going to be a hell of lot easier to convert all of that excess parking in Miami than it will be in Toronto.
As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
Over the winter I visited BMW World, and its neighboring museum, in Munich, Germany. I loved seeing how the company got its start and how far it has come since it helped to invent the automobile at the beginning of the 20th century. I think their first product was actually an airplane engine. But you and I both know that the paradigm is changing. The internal combustion engine (ICE) is going away and pretty soon we won't be driving, so much as being driven around by our cars. Bloomberg recently published an interesting article about this shift and about BMW. Here is an excerpt:
The fact that both combustion engines and electric motors find themselves inside the same 18,000-person complex in Dingolfing, BMW’s largest in Europe, makes it a microcosm of a shift overtaking automakers the world over. A visitor can see that 625-horsepower engine—more than twice as powerful as the original from 1985, a luxury product relentlessly branded as “the ultimate driving machine”—then walk around the corner and see its puny electric replacement. You start thinking the better slogan might be “the ultimate combustion engine.” As in: last of its kind.
Electric motors are a hell of a lot simpler to manufacture (and service) than gasoline engines. BMW estimates that they take about 30% less time to make. So the impacts of this transformation span everything from supply chain to human capital. Today, about 10% of the work that goes on in Dingolfing is related to electric vehicles.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
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