Way back when everyone wanted to buy development land, my friend Jeremiah Shamess of Colliers used to always tell me that the only way to do this was to either (1) pay the most or (2) believe in something that others don’t. This — making non-consensus bets — is something I like to talk about a lot on this blog, but what did that mean back then? 

Well, when sites were seeing dozens of offers and the market was hyper-competitive, you really had to work to find any sort of overlooked value. Maybe it was an assembly. Maybe it was a density opportunity that others were missing. Or maybe it was a rail setback that the market felt would neuter the site, but that you had a solution for. Whatever the case, believing in something different was hard work.

Today, things are a lot different. The consensus bet would be to not buy development land in the first place, and the non-consensus bet would be to buy. But instead of having to believe in unique unlocks for a site, it’s obvious that the greater obstacle is believing that the market will be there to absorb your space. And if it is there, at what price? 

Nobody really knows, and that’s what makes it non-consensus. But as always, non-consensus bets are where the greatest opportunities exist. That was true when the market was booming, and it remains true today.

Cover photo by Alfan Ziyyadan on Unsplash

There is a great quote in Shakespeare's Hamlet: "There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."

The point of this quote is to argue that the universe is fundamentally neutral. When an event happens, it is neither good nor bad; the label is determined by the judgment we ultimately bring to it.

Take snow, for instance.

Here in Toronto, I find that when it snows, people tend to look at it as a bad event. They think of the traffic that will ensue and the work that will be required to clear out walkways and driveways. But I love snow (maybe because I don't have a driveway). Snow is good. As an avid snowboarder, it gets me excited for the winter season.

And right now I can tell you that I'm praying to the snow gods for a dumping or two in Northern Utah. The entire Mountain West region is off to a slow start this season and has had to delay resort openings. My judgment tells me this is "bad."

Now, let's consider the real estate development market.

The prevailing narrative right now is that it's bad. But Hamlet would say that only thinking makes it so. An alternative way to think about the market is that it's presenting a generational buying opportunity.

Like snow, I would call that a good thing.