It has been over four years since the Surfside tragedy in South Florida and the partial collapse of the 12-storey Champlain Towers South building. In response to this, the state of Florida enacted stricter condominium regulations. Buildings over 30 years old (or over 25 years if located within three miles of a coast) must now undergo mandatory structural inspections. Condominium reserve funds are also required to be fully funded, and owners can no longer waive or reduce the contributions. Surprisingly, this was not the case before.

The site itself has also moved forward. In May 2022, Dubai-based DAMAC International acquired the 1.8-acre parcel for $120 million. They hired Zaha Hadid Architects (ZHA) and, in 2023, submitted designs to the Town of Surfside. Earlier this year, pre-construction condominium sales launched for The Delmore — with a starting price of $15 million and an average price of $40 million. And this month, the developer announced that they have secured a foundation permit.

With only 37 condominiums in the project, the land cost alone works out to over $3.2 million per suite.

Rendering via DAMAC

The term "missing middle" is typically used to refer to a missing scale in our built environment. It is that middle scale of housing between low-rise and high-rise. But there's another way to think about it and that is in terms of the market that the housing is serving.

Over the last cycle, cities like Toronto saw a kind of "barbell" dynamic. Meaning, new supply tended to target the poles. It was delivering for young professionals and young couples on one end and for downsizers and wealthy retirees on the other. But what has been missing is new supply that targets the belly of the market. And by this I mean something like low-amenity, well-designed, mid-market homes.

Of course, there are good reasons for why this is the case. The cost structure of new developments makes it so that the only feasible way to underwrite new projects is to maximize rents through smaller suite sizes and copious amounts of amenities. It is not that developers don't want to do it any other way, it's that they generally can't.

This is the paradox underpinning Canada's housing crisis. Yes rents are softening and vacancies are rising right now, but it would still be right to say that we are in a crisis. And that's because it largely exists in a different segment of the market — the biggest one.

In my view, this is our great challenge and opportunity as we move through this downturn. And I would bet that once we unlock the right model(s), we will see just how pent-up the demand for housing is in cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

Back in the spring, I wrote about a small social housing project in Paris at 18 rue Pradier. And the reason I wrote about it is because it's one of those beautiful European projects that makes every city builder in North America wonder: Why don't we build projects like this?

I mean, it's nicer than most market-rate housing projects.

As part of my post, I did some internet sleuthing to find out the site area, the gross construction area, and what appeared to be the land price. But it was a modest piece. Thankfully, developer Brendan Whitsitt (of Imprint Development) just published a far more comprehensive summary of the project.

In it, he pieces together the building's mechanical systems, the wall assemblies, the project costs, and even the capital stack. He also compares everything back to what's typical and allowable by code here in Toronto. It's well worth a read.

However, I am going to spoil the punchline: Building in Europe is not cheaper. 18 rue Pradier is a beautiful — but very expensive — project. It only works because of subsidies. No private-sector developer would build it otherwise.