Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
The office cyclicality is interesting to see. But of course, the point of this chart is the dramatic rise in data center construction. As of August 2025, it's about 2x retail construction and it's on track to overtake both offices and warehouses.
Will this happen and is this pace of construction sustainable? I frankly don't know. But AI and the need for more compute are obviously here to stay.
I'm reminded of something that venture capitalist Fred Wilson once wrote on his blog. His argument was that when it comes to speculative frenzies, or just new stuff in general, it's common to be directionally correct, but be off in terms of the order of magnitude.
I wouldn't be surprised if this proves to be true for AI-driven investments.

Given how nice it is outside right now, some of you may be forgetting that Canada does have winter. And it is largely because of winter that we are the biggest foreign buyer of homes in the state of Florida (and the US as a whole for that matter). In 2024, Canadians bought over $2.4 billion worth of homes in Florida. And between April 2023 and March 2024, it is estimated that Canadians accounted for nearly 25% of all foreign home sales in the state (this is according to the National Association of Realtors).
Because of this strong demand, I would imagine that many and perhaps even most Canadians would tell you that being allowed to buy a home in the US — or elsewhere in the world — is a nice freedom to have. (Although demand is waning because of the strong US dollar and because of the current geopolitical climate.)
If we flipped this around and asked Canadians whether foreigners should be allowed to buy homes in Canada, I suspect that we might get a different leaning. And that's why there is the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (which is currently set to expire on January 1, 2027). This was and likely still is the politically popular thing to have in place.
Now, it could be the case that these two groups are mutually exclusive. In other words, the people who own homes outside of Canada (a small minority) do not overlap with the people who support a ban on foreign buyers (the majority). And so when looked at in aggregate, the majority of Canadians do in fact want this ban. That said, I would not be surprised if Canadians buy more homes abroad than foreigners buy homes in Canada, which would make our current policies, at the very least, mildly hypocritical.
Whatever the case may be, it is in the news this week that some of the largest builders in British Columbia have just sent a letter to our governments arguing that the foreign buyer ban and BC's foreign buyer tax need to be reconsidered — or modified to something that resembles Australia's model. (Australia restricts foreign ownership to newly constructed homes and pre-sales. Foreigners can't buy resales.) The letter was signed by 25 companies including developers like Amacon, Beedie, Strand Development, and Westbank.
As you know, sixplexes are now permitted in certain parts of Toronto. We've spoken before about how it should be all of Toronto; but nevertheless, they are allowed in areas where they were not allowed before. That constitutes progress.
But it gets much better: This week, Mayor Chow announced that she will be bringing forward a motion to Council to eliminate development charges and parkland dedication cash-in-lieu requirements for new developments of up to six residential homes. This is a big deal and something that is necessary if we want to spur more rental housing.
To quote my friend Craig Race (of Craig Race Architecture), "this is the first thing [Olivia Chow has] done I'm happy about, and I hope to see more." Mayor Chow was criticized for standing around while sixplexes were being debated, and so this is perhaps her now trying to step up. Whatever it is, home builders will take it.
Globizen wasn't looking at this scale before, but I'm now going to adapt one of our screening models to see if the math works. If it does, then expect the industry to mobilize around it.
The office cyclicality is interesting to see. But of course, the point of this chart is the dramatic rise in data center construction. As of August 2025, it's about 2x retail construction and it's on track to overtake both offices and warehouses.
Will this happen and is this pace of construction sustainable? I frankly don't know. But AI and the need for more compute are obviously here to stay.
I'm reminded of something that venture capitalist Fred Wilson once wrote on his blog. His argument was that when it comes to speculative frenzies, or just new stuff in general, it's common to be directionally correct, but be off in terms of the order of magnitude.
I wouldn't be surprised if this proves to be true for AI-driven investments.

Given how nice it is outside right now, some of you may be forgetting that Canada does have winter. And it is largely because of winter that we are the biggest foreign buyer of homes in the state of Florida (and the US as a whole for that matter). In 2024, Canadians bought over $2.4 billion worth of homes in Florida. And between April 2023 and March 2024, it is estimated that Canadians accounted for nearly 25% of all foreign home sales in the state (this is according to the National Association of Realtors).
Because of this strong demand, I would imagine that many and perhaps even most Canadians would tell you that being allowed to buy a home in the US — or elsewhere in the world — is a nice freedom to have. (Although demand is waning because of the strong US dollar and because of the current geopolitical climate.)
If we flipped this around and asked Canadians whether foreigners should be allowed to buy homes in Canada, I suspect that we might get a different leaning. And that's why there is the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (which is currently set to expire on January 1, 2027). This was and likely still is the politically popular thing to have in place.
Now, it could be the case that these two groups are mutually exclusive. In other words, the people who own homes outside of Canada (a small minority) do not overlap with the people who support a ban on foreign buyers (the majority). And so when looked at in aggregate, the majority of Canadians do in fact want this ban. That said, I would not be surprised if Canadians buy more homes abroad than foreigners buy homes in Canada, which would make our current policies, at the very least, mildly hypocritical.
Whatever the case may be, it is in the news this week that some of the largest builders in British Columbia have just sent a letter to our governments arguing that the foreign buyer ban and BC's foreign buyer tax need to be reconsidered — or modified to something that resembles Australia's model. (Australia restricts foreign ownership to newly constructed homes and pre-sales. Foreigners can't buy resales.) The letter was signed by 25 companies including developers like Amacon, Beedie, Strand Development, and Westbank.
As you know, sixplexes are now permitted in certain parts of Toronto. We've spoken before about how it should be all of Toronto; but nevertheless, they are allowed in areas where they were not allowed before. That constitutes progress.
But it gets much better: This week, Mayor Chow announced that she will be bringing forward a motion to Council to eliminate development charges and parkland dedication cash-in-lieu requirements for new developments of up to six residential homes. This is a big deal and something that is necessary if we want to spur more rental housing.
To quote my friend Craig Race (of Craig Race Architecture), "this is the first thing [Olivia Chow has] done I'm happy about, and I hope to see more." Mayor Chow was criticized for standing around while sixplexes were being debated, and so this is perhaps her now trying to step up. Whatever it is, home builders will take it.
Globizen wasn't looking at this scale before, but I'm now going to adapt one of our screening models to see if the math works. If it does, then expect the industry to mobilize around it.
At the very least, I think there's a strong argument to be made that pre-construction and new home sales should be exempt from the ban. Most people probably don't appreciate that developers rely on pre-sales to finance the construction of new homes. It is significantly more challenging for end users to buy in this same way given how long projects take. We can certainly have a conversation about whether this is the optimal financing approach, but it is the way things work today.
So my view is this: If foreign capital wants to finance new housing and help increase our overall housing supply, that's a good thing. Let's take their money and use it to build lots more homes for Canadians. With this approach, foreigners won't be competing for our existing housing stock and, over the longer term, it is likely that most of these pre-sales will end up as new rental supply or as a resale home for Canadians.
The alternative is building fewer new homes, waiting until there's a worse housing shortage, and then turning the industry back on to deliver new homes in 5-7 years.
Cover photo by Denys Kostyuchenko on Unsplash
At the very least, I think there's a strong argument to be made that pre-construction and new home sales should be exempt from the ban. Most people probably don't appreciate that developers rely on pre-sales to finance the construction of new homes. It is significantly more challenging for end users to buy in this same way given how long projects take. We can certainly have a conversation about whether this is the optimal financing approach, but it is the way things work today.
So my view is this: If foreign capital wants to finance new housing and help increase our overall housing supply, that's a good thing. Let's take their money and use it to build lots more homes for Canadians. With this approach, foreigners won't be competing for our existing housing stock and, over the longer term, it is likely that most of these pre-sales will end up as new rental supply or as a resale home for Canadians.
The alternative is building fewer new homes, waiting until there's a worse housing shortage, and then turning the industry back on to deliver new homes in 5-7 years.
Cover photo by Denys Kostyuchenko on Unsplash
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