Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
In response to this narrative, City Observatory recently published a post where they call this a new mythology. Joe Cortright argues that it is simply an exaggeration that sounds good in media headlines. And indeed, if you look at some accounts of poverty, the swings haven’t been that dramatic.
However, if you dig into this study by Luke Juday at the University of Virginia (cited in the City Observatory article), there have been some interesting changes.
Below is a chart that shows the percentage of adults (over 25) with a bachelor’s degree (or higher) sorted by distance from the city center. This particular chart is a composite of 7 northeastern (US) cities. The brown line is 2012 and the orange line is 1990.
As you can see, there has been a huge spike in educated people living in city centers – at least in the northeast.
Here is that same chart for Atlanta:
New York:
In the case of New York, it looks like the entire city just became more educated.
Miami:
Educational attainment is often the single biggest determinant of income. So there is something to be said about highly educated people concentrating themselves in city centers. We may not want to call it an inversion of great proportions, but it’s a meaningful shift.
Using anonymized credit and debit card data from over 54 million Chase customers across the US, City Observatory recently published a chart showing the percentage of retail sales that goes to “small businesses” in 15 US cities.
This is based on proprietary data (2015) from JPMorgan Chase and is surely not perfect. But it’s still an interesting approximation.
At the top of the list is New York with 36% of all retail sales going to small businesses. And at the bottom of the list – keep in mind that this list only has 15 cities – is Columbus with 23% of retail sales.
One of the overarching findings was that urban centers tend to see 10-15% more retail sales going to small and medium sized businesses compared to the suburbs.
Intuitively, this makes sense to me. Space is a precious commodity in urban centers and that may naturally privilege the small operator. There’s also the question of consumer preference among urbanites.
If you’re interested, you can download the full report from JPMorgan Chase, here.
Between 2001 and 2010, Detroit lost more than 200,000 jobs. It went from over 900,000 jobs to a low of about 690,000 jobs. All of this was happening while the United States was experiencing – up until 2008 at least – an economic growth cycle.
But we all know that Detroit is now a city on the move. According to City Observatory, Detroit has exhibited 5 consecutive years of job growth. And 2016 looks to be no different. Since bottoming out, Detroit has added more than 50,000 jobs.
The above chart is based on federal data for Wayne County, Michigan. It includes Detroit, Dearborn, and Livonia, but does not include any other counties within the Detroit metro area. (The above chart and stats are all via
In response to this narrative, City Observatory recently published a post where they call this a new mythology. Joe Cortright argues that it is simply an exaggeration that sounds good in media headlines. And indeed, if you look at some accounts of poverty, the swings haven’t been that dramatic.
However, if you dig into this study by Luke Juday at the University of Virginia (cited in the City Observatory article), there have been some interesting changes.
Below is a chart that shows the percentage of adults (over 25) with a bachelor’s degree (or higher) sorted by distance from the city center. This particular chart is a composite of 7 northeastern (US) cities. The brown line is 2012 and the orange line is 1990.
As you can see, there has been a huge spike in educated people living in city centers – at least in the northeast.
Here is that same chart for Atlanta:
New York:
In the case of New York, it looks like the entire city just became more educated.
Miami:
Educational attainment is often the single biggest determinant of income. So there is something to be said about highly educated people concentrating themselves in city centers. We may not want to call it an inversion of great proportions, but it’s a meaningful shift.
Using anonymized credit and debit card data from over 54 million Chase customers across the US, City Observatory recently published a chart showing the percentage of retail sales that goes to “small businesses” in 15 US cities.
This is based on proprietary data (2015) from JPMorgan Chase and is surely not perfect. But it’s still an interesting approximation.
At the top of the list is New York with 36% of all retail sales going to small businesses. And at the bottom of the list – keep in mind that this list only has 15 cities – is Columbus with 23% of retail sales.
One of the overarching findings was that urban centers tend to see 10-15% more retail sales going to small and medium sized businesses compared to the suburbs.
Intuitively, this makes sense to me. Space is a precious commodity in urban centers and that may naturally privilege the small operator. There’s also the question of consumer preference among urbanites.
If you’re interested, you can download the full report from JPMorgan Chase, here.
Between 2001 and 2010, Detroit lost more than 200,000 jobs. It went from over 900,000 jobs to a low of about 690,000 jobs. All of this was happening while the United States was experiencing – up until 2008 at least – an economic growth cycle.
But we all know that Detroit is now a city on the move. According to City Observatory, Detroit has exhibited 5 consecutive years of job growth. And 2016 looks to be no different. Since bottoming out, Detroit has added more than 50,000 jobs.
The above chart is based on federal data for Wayne County, Michigan. It includes Detroit, Dearborn, and Livonia, but does not include any other counties within the Detroit metro area. (The above chart and stats are all via
Of course, the big question is: Has Detroit made the requisite structural changes to its economy to keep this trend line continuing or is this simply a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?
I have visited Detroit basically every two years since 2009 and you can certainly feel the change, even in that short period of time.
And if you look at total non-farm employment growth over the last year (June 2015 to June 2016) for the entire Detroit metro area, you see that some of the fastest growing industries include: professional and business services (+14,200 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+10,500 jobs); education and health services (+9,300 jobs); and financial activities (+5,500 jobs). In fact, many of these industries are growing faster than national averages.
In case you were wondering, manufacturing added 1,200 jobs and government lost 1,800 jobs.
I’ve heard some people complain that the city, at least downtown, is now too controlled by one entity (Dan Gilbert). But that’s probably what had to happen to really kickstart the city’s renaissance. Somebody had to seed it before you could get the cool coffee shops, bars, restaurants, and coworking spaces.
There’s still heavy lifting to do, but the data suggests that the city is now headed in the right direction.
What are your thoughts? Also, if any of you are working on interesting projects in Detroit, I would love to hear from you.
Of course, the big question is: Has Detroit made the requisite structural changes to its economy to keep this trend line continuing or is this simply a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?
I have visited Detroit basically every two years since 2009 and you can certainly feel the change, even in that short period of time.
And if you look at total non-farm employment growth over the last year (June 2015 to June 2016) for the entire Detroit metro area, you see that some of the fastest growing industries include: professional and business services (+14,200 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+10,500 jobs); education and health services (+9,300 jobs); and financial activities (+5,500 jobs). In fact, many of these industries are growing faster than national averages.
In case you were wondering, manufacturing added 1,200 jobs and government lost 1,800 jobs.
I’ve heard some people complain that the city, at least downtown, is now too controlled by one entity (Dan Gilbert). But that’s probably what had to happen to really kickstart the city’s renaissance. Somebody had to seed it before you could get the cool coffee shops, bars, restaurants, and coworking spaces.
There’s still heavy lifting to do, but the data suggests that the city is now headed in the right direction.
What are your thoughts? Also, if any of you are working on interesting projects in Detroit, I would love to hear from you.
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