Happy new year, everyone! Yesterday we spoke about what actually happened in 2024 (and evaluated my predictions from exactly a year ago). Today, let's prognosticate about what might happen in 2025 (keeping in mind that I'm based in Toronto and so there will naturally be a bias toward this market):
Very broadly speaking, our current commercial real estate downturn started, in my opinion, around the middle of 2022. That's when sentiment started to feel different and the market was starting to respond to increasing interest rates. Over the past few years, I've been overly optimistic in terms of how soon the market would reset. But eventually I'll be right. So I'm going to call 2025 as an important turning point where we see more capitulation, more bankruptcies, and a shedding of legacy assets/deals. For the other side of the market, this will mean more new deals.
This, however, does not mean that we will see a development environment that anywhere resembles what we saw prior to 2022. On the new construction residential side (condominium and multi-family rental specifically), I think it's going to take 2-3 years for us to work through and absorb our current supply pipeline. This will be an obvious headwind for land prices. The successful projects in this environment will be located in core/prime locations, underwritten at more modest scales, and focused largely on end users.
In 2024, we saw the continued rise of more people going back to the office. Here in Toronto, the average weekday figure is approximately 73% of what it was pre-COVID (data from November 2024). This year, I think we'll see this figure get close to 90% and then likely start to level off, some five years after the first lockdowns. I think it makes sense that we'll stabilize at some number
This is an interesting article talking about the price of carbon and where it will need to go if we are to get to zero carbon emissions by 2050. The current price of carbon on the EU’s Emissions Trading System is around $59 per tonne. But according to the OECD, carbon will need to be closer to $150 per tonne by 2030 to keep the world on track with its sustainability goals. What this means is that if you emit carbon, it will get more expensive to do that.
The article also suggests that there is talk of a minimum price on carbon that would slowly increase over time. This would provide greater certainty to investors who are buying/trading carbon, while at the same time encouraging a broader push away from carbon emissions. This proposal has been backed by the Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, which is a group of companies that collectively represent about $6.6 trillion of assets under management.
I think it is clear that we are headed in this direction. But it is going to be an expensive transition. Take, for example, the case of new buildings. Many/most cities now have sustainability goals that similarly increase — become more stringent — over time. The thinking is that this gradual transition allows the development industry to incrementally adapt. Makes sense.
However, there are real challenges. Generally speaking, these new targets increase the cost of building. The result is a set of opposing forces. We want more sustainable buildings, but we also want more affordable housing. The problem is that the former often works against the latter, even though it is the right thing to do. And so it is not only about the industry catching up to new targets, it is also about the market catching up through higher rents and higher sale prices.
