I started a new French class his week. Most of my classmates are regulars, but since we have a new teacher, we were all asked to introduce ourselves. And to spice things up, we were asked to talk about whether we're glass half full or half empty kind of people.
When it came to my turn, and before I could answer, one of my classmates jumped in and said "Brandon est un optimiste." And you know what, this made me happy. I took it as a great compliment.
Because to be a real estate developer, I think you need to be an optimist. I have argued this before on the blog.
This is not to say that you don't need to carefully manage risk, and think about all of the things that can and probably will go wrong. It is say that the inertia working against you is so great, that you really need to believe in the future you are trying to create. If not, you're liable to not make it.
So this morning, when my partner Lucas showed me the below quote from Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, I immediately thought, "yeah, this is going on the blog."
"If you are allowed one wish for your child, seriously consider wishing him or her optimism. Optimists are normally cheerful and happy, and therefore popular; they are resilient in adapting to failures and hardships, their chances of clinical depression are reduced, their immune system is stronger, they take better care of their health, they feel healthier than others and are in fact likely to live longer.
I started a new French class his week. Most of my classmates are regulars, but since we have a new teacher, we were all asked to introduce ourselves. And to spice things up, we were asked to talk about whether we're glass half full or half empty kind of people.
When it came to my turn, and before I could answer, one of my classmates jumped in and said "Brandon est un optimiste." And you know what, this made me happy. I took it as a great compliment.
Because to be a real estate developer, I think you need to be an optimist. I have argued this before on the blog.
This is not to say that you don't need to carefully manage risk, and think about all of the things that can and probably will go wrong. It is say that the inertia working against you is so great, that you really need to believe in the future you are trying to create. If not, you're liable to not make it.
So this morning, when my partner Lucas showed me the below quote from Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, I immediately thought, "yeah, this is going on the blog."
"If you are allowed one wish for your child, seriously consider wishing him or her optimism. Optimists are normally cheerful and happy, and therefore popular; they are resilient in adapting to failures and hardships, their chances of clinical depression are reduced, their immune system is stronger, they take better care of their health, they feel healthier than others and are in fact likely to live longer.
Optimistic individuals play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are the inventors, the entrepreneurs, the political and military leaders – not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge… the people who have the greatest influence on the lives of others are likely to be optimistic and overconfident, and to take more risks than they realize."
This excerpt is from Kahneman's book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. I haven't read it. But now I want to.
I've been having more coffee meetings over the last few weeks. And one of the things they are doing -- besides making me jittery -- is reminding me that at least two things happen during bear markets:
Conviction gets tested.
People get really creative.
Let's start with number one. It's easy to have conviction in something when it's obviously working and lots of other people are doing it. But what about when that is no longer the case?
Take the example of Amazon. In this 2018 post by Fred Wilson, he reminds us that at the peak of the internet bubble in 1999, Amazing was trading at around $90 per share. Two years later it was somewhere around $6 per share. And it was not until 2007 that Amazon would start trading above its peak again.
In hindsight, holding on was very obviously the right thing to do. But to do that from 1999 to 2007, you would have needed patience. And to have patience, you would have needed a high degree of conviction in Amazon as a company and in the internet as the harbinger of an important societal shift. That wouldn't have been easy -- just like many things today are not easy.
At the same time, bear markets force people to get really creative -- we're now onto thing number two. In this case, it's not a question of patience. It's, "the thing I was doing before no longer works and I don't know if/when it will work again, so I'm going to get creative and try something new." Bear markets give you this wonderful opportunity because the opportunity cost of not doing the status quo disappears (or greatly reduces).
On some level, though, these are two contradictory things: are we sticking to our guns or are we trying something new? But in my mind, you want both. This is not about saying, "lots of people used to want to buy cryptocurrencies and condominiums, but now a lot of people don't, so I'm going to move onto the next hot thing." It's something more calculated than this.
To return to Amazon, I think it's akin to Jeff Bezos' old mantra that you want to be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Right now, lots of people are being forced to be flexible. But the vision part is what you still need conviction around. Otherwise, how will you get to where you want to go?
Optimistic individuals play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are the inventors, the entrepreneurs, the political and military leaders – not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge… the people who have the greatest influence on the lives of others are likely to be optimistic and overconfident, and to take more risks than they realize."
This excerpt is from Kahneman's book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. I haven't read it. But now I want to.
I've been having more coffee meetings over the last few weeks. And one of the things they are doing -- besides making me jittery -- is reminding me that at least two things happen during bear markets:
Conviction gets tested.
People get really creative.
Let's start with number one. It's easy to have conviction in something when it's obviously working and lots of other people are doing it. But what about when that is no longer the case?
Take the example of Amazon. In this 2018 post by Fred Wilson, he reminds us that at the peak of the internet bubble in 1999, Amazing was trading at around $90 per share. Two years later it was somewhere around $6 per share. And it was not until 2007 that Amazon would start trading above its peak again.
In hindsight, holding on was very obviously the right thing to do. But to do that from 1999 to 2007, you would have needed patience. And to have patience, you would have needed a high degree of conviction in Amazon as a company and in the internet as the harbinger of an important societal shift. That wouldn't have been easy -- just like many things today are not easy.
At the same time, bear markets force people to get really creative -- we're now onto thing number two. In this case, it's not a question of patience. It's, "the thing I was doing before no longer works and I don't know if/when it will work again, so I'm going to get creative and try something new." Bear markets give you this wonderful opportunity because the opportunity cost of not doing the status quo disappears (or greatly reduces).
On some level, though, these are two contradictory things: are we sticking to our guns or are we trying something new? But in my mind, you want both. This is not about saying, "lots of people used to want to buy cryptocurrencies and condominiums, but now a lot of people don't, so I'm going to move onto the next hot thing." It's something more calculated than this.
To return to Amazon, I think it's akin to Jeff Bezos' old mantra that you want to be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Right now, lots of people are being forced to be flexible. But the vision part is what you still need conviction around. Otherwise, how will you get to where you want to go?
. After 8 very productive and exciting years at the company, it was time.
I joined Slate in 2016 to help start the development group. Here is the post that I wrote back then. And it all came about because of a coffee meeting at Starbucks at the corner of Yonge & King.
At the time, Lucas Manuel was looking to hire someone, and so our mutual friend, Kieran Boyd, connected us with the expectation that I would make some industry introductions. But at the end of our meeting, Lucas was quick to say, "actually, I think you should come join Slate."
And obviously, that's what I did.
Fast forward to today, and Slate has grown into a global investment and asset management company with $13 billion of assets under management across Canada, the US, and Europe. And within this platform is a supremely talented development group with an awesome portfolio of sites and projects.
Thankfully though, this is not a goodbye. Myself and the Globizen team will still be working very closely with Slate on a handful of development projects, including One Delisle and Corktown. And the intent is that we will continue to work on new projects together in the future.
I learned a lot during my time at Slate, and I have so much respect for Blair and Brady Welch and the rest of the partners. They have built an incredible global company and assembled some of the most creative, entrepreneurial, and smartest people I have ever worked with.
Thank you for everything over the last 8 years.
So what's the plan for Globizen? This will be the topic of a follow-up post.
. After 8 very productive and exciting years at the company, it was time.
I joined Slate in 2016 to help start the development group. Here is the post that I wrote back then. And it all came about because of a coffee meeting at Starbucks at the corner of Yonge & King.
At the time, Lucas Manuel was looking to hire someone, and so our mutual friend, Kieran Boyd, connected us with the expectation that I would make some industry introductions. But at the end of our meeting, Lucas was quick to say, "actually, I think you should come join Slate."
And obviously, that's what I did.
Fast forward to today, and Slate has grown into a global investment and asset management company with $13 billion of assets under management across Canada, the US, and Europe. And within this platform is a supremely talented development group with an awesome portfolio of sites and projects.
Thankfully though, this is not a goodbye. Myself and the Globizen team will still be working very closely with Slate on a handful of development projects, including One Delisle and Corktown. And the intent is that we will continue to work on new projects together in the future.
I learned a lot during my time at Slate, and I have so much respect for Blair and Brady Welch and the rest of the partners. They have built an incredible global company and assembled some of the most creative, entrepreneurial, and smartest people I have ever worked with.
Thank you for everything over the last 8 years.
So what's the plan for Globizen? This will be the topic of a follow-up post.
