I spent much of this morning reading about and listening to discussions about what's happening in Ukraine and so, instead of a typical post this morning, I'm just going to share a mélange of links.
Monocle 24 Foreign Desk episode talking about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Speakers are Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, former NATO chief Richard Shirreff, Russian journalist Ekaterina Kotrikadze, and Russia expert Mark Galeotti. I found this helpful in better understanding some of the dynamics at play here and what might happen going forward -- though, of course, who knows. All of this is both deeply sad and frustrating. [Link]
Discussion in Bloomberg Green about the feasibility of the EU shutting off Russian gas right now, as opposed to through a protracted transition. Currently, the EU satisfies about 20% of its total energy needs through gas and about 40% of it comes from Russia. [Link] Also, a chart showing Russian natural gas exports, by destination. [Link]
Warren Buffet published his widely read annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this weekend. He likes to deliver news like this on a Saturday so that people have time to digest it before the markets reopen on Monday. The overall message was one that we have heard before: BH has a lot of cash (~$144 billion to be exact) and they're not finding very many compelling opportunities in which to deploy it. [Link]
To add to the above, here is a longish Q&A session with Buffet's partner, Charlie Munger. He continues to be worried about excess money in the system and high inflation. [Link]
Construction has been recently completed on a Mies van der Rohe design from 1952 that had been forgotten and buried in some archives. Originally commissioned to be a fraternity house at Indiana University, the building is now the Eskenazi School of Art, Architecture + Design. This is a supremely cool story, particularly for an architecture school. [Link]
Yet another simple example by Bobby Fijan on how highly restrictive zoning codes and design guidelines don't always produce the end results that we might want. Different times and different contexts in this example. But it's interesting to think about how best to promote design excellence in our cites. Is more creative market freedom the answer? [Link]
My friend Randy Gladman, who is senior vice-president of development advisory at Colliers here in Toronto, published an opinion piece in the Financial Post last week about the hidden costs of inclusionary zoning. It is consistent with the ad nauseam discussions that we have been having on this blog for the past few years, but it of course remains an important read. [Link]
Steve Pomeroy of Focus Consulting makes an argument in the Globe and Mail that elevated home prices in Canada isn't primarily the result of a supply deficit. Using recent census data that allegedly shows that housing supply in Vancouver actually kept pace with demand (over how long of a period?), Pomeroy instead points to the other typical culprits: strong demand, low interest rates, unused homes owned by non-residents, and so on. This one likely deserves a dedicated post at some point. [Link]
Ironically, the post turned out to be wordier than my usual ones.
Warren Buffet's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders was just published for 2020. It can be downloaded here. I have made a habit out of reading his letter every year and his overall approach has been instrumental in shaping the way I think about investing.
What is clear to me when I look at the first page of each letter -- which contains a comparison of Berkshire's performance to that of the S&P 500 -- is that he and Charlie Munger have got to be the most successful stock market investors of the last century.
They have consistently outperformed the market. And they have done that by focusing on fundamentals, doing what others are not (i.e. being contrarians), and being incredibly patient, among other things. All of this isn't rocket science. It's simple, understandable, and repeatable.
The other thing we can learn from his widely read letters is that clear and concise writing is a powerful tool. I have said this many times before, but to explain something clearly it means you need to really understand it. Things tend to get complicated when you don't know what you're taking about.
And with that, here's an excerpt from this year's annual letter:
In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises.
I was recently asked about why I'm not writing more about the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate industry and on city building more broadly. The honest answer is that, like everyone else, I've been preoccupied with two other topics: our health and our economy. And as we write this playbook for the very first time and start to think about reopening the global economy, these are the two things we are obviously going to need to balance.
I also don't believe that we're going to see a fundamental reshaping of our cities. Many of the trends that were already underway could get accelerated. But it feels too premature to prognosticate pivotal shifts in the way we are going to live our lives (though they make for good headlines). And, ultimately, I believe wholeheartedly in what Fred Wilson wrote earlier this week: "In person social interaction is the core of being human and I think this pandemic is reminding all of us how vitally important that is."
All this said, it is probably time to talk about what's happening in the real estate / development space.
Much of the real estate industry has been focused on rent collection and on working with all of its various stakeholders so that as many people and companies as possible can make it to the other side of this. Everyone has bills to pay. Tenants have expenses. Landlords have expenses. And I don't think that many people appreciate how interconnected and circular the whole system is. The rents that get paid are, in many instances, being used to fund people's retirements. (i.e. The real estate is owned by pension funds.)