Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway announced that it has come to an agreement to buy Arizona-based homebuilder Taylor Morrison for US$6.8 billion in cash. The agreed-upon price is $72.50 per share, representing a 24% premium over the company's closing stock price on the prior Friday. Once the transaction closes, Taylor Morrison will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and become a privately held company within the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate.

Now, the press release only says so much, but I did find the canned quotes interesting. Greg Abel of Berkshire said that the company wants to "unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform." And Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor, said the acquisition "will allow us to scale the Taylor Morrison platform in ways that would not be possible as a standalone company.”

Berkshire has a long history in housing. It also owns a manufactured home company (i.e. not site-built), and various companies that make up the housing supply chain: bricks, paint, insulation, roofing, sales, and more. So it'll be interesting to see what they are able to achieve by way of a "combined platform." It has elements of both vertical and horizontal integration.

The other interesting thing about this announcement is that it also seems to signal the following: Abel wants Berkshire to be more of an active manager (finding those "synergies" across its subsidiary companies), and he likely feels the housing market is at or near the bottom of the cycle (despite current inflation risks). Regardless, the US has a structural housing deficit and so homebuilding is probably a good business to be in for the long term.

Cover photo by Josh Olalde on Unsplash

Over the weekend, Warren Buffett and his team hosted some 40,000 people in Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. And during the event the 94-year-old announced that he would be retiring at the end of the year. This is after 55 years as CEO, which makes him the longest-serving chief executive of an S&P 500 company.

What a run. Thanks for all the wisdom that you have shared over the years, Warren. In honor of this milestone, I decided to go back and reread his last shareholder letter (which was published back in February). His comments on the insurance industry are particularly interesting, and naturally relevant to real estate.

Over the decades, Warren has talked a lot about the benefits of owning insurance companies, namely the "money-up-front, loss-payments-later" model. It creates a "float" of cash that can be invested in the interim. But the flip side of this benefit is that it can sometimes conceal a shitty business.

As a business, if you have to pay your costs up front before you sell your products or services, then it's pretty easy to determine if you're not making any money. But in insurance, there's a long-tail of liabilities that can be far more insidious and that may not appear for many years, or even decades according to Warren.

There's also climate change bringing more uncertainty:

In general, property-casualty (“P/C”) insurance pricing strengthened during 2024, reflecting a major increase in damage from convective storms. Climate change may have been announcing its arrival. However, no “monster” event occurred during 2024. Someday, any day, a truly staggering insurance loss will occur – and there is no guarantee that there will be only one per annum.

Think back only 135 years when the world had no autos, trucks or airplanes. Now there are 300 million vehicles in the U.S. alone, a massive fleet causing huge damage daily. Property damage arising from hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires is massive, growing and increasingly unpredictable in their patterns and eventual costs.

In a perverse way, all of this is good for the insurance business. More economic risk means higher premiums and a greater overall need for insurance products. But you have to accurately underwrite this risk:

Properly pricing P/C insurance is part art, part science and is definitely not a business for optimists. Mike Goldberg, the Berkshire executive who recruited Ajit, said it best: “We want our underwriters to daily come to work nervous, but not paralyzed.”

This reminds me. I was speaking with one of our insurance advisors a few years ago and he made a comment that he was going to be "on risk for the project." I responded by half-jokingly saying "it's funny, you see only risk, and I see an opportunity to create something special for the city." Both of us then laughed, but there's obviously some truth to these two perspectives.

I guess I chose the right profession.

Cover photo by Chris Nguyen on Unsplash

I admire Warren Buffet's humility:

In the physical world, great buildings are linked to their architect while those who had poured the concrete or installed the windows are soon forgotten. Berkshire has become a great company. Though I have long been in charge of the construction crew; Charlie [Munger] should forever be credited with being the architect.

This is an excerpt from his recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, which, this year, he opens up with an obituary to his late partner, Charlie Munger.

I don't agree with everything Warren says and writes. He, for instance, doesn't seem to like crypto and streetcars. Though, surely, he'd really dig my CryptoParisian.

That said, I never miss his letters and his thinking has been broadly instrumental in how I tend to think about real estate.

If you take his description (same letter) of what Berkshire does, and replace businesses with properties, this is what you get:

Our goal at Berkshire is simple: We want to own either all or a portion of [properties] that enjoy good economics that are fundamental and enduring. Within capitalism, some [properties] will flourish for a very long time while others will prove to be sinkholes. It’s harder than you would think to predict which will be the winners and losers.

This is a good way to think about real estate.