I have been using an Apple Watch for a couple of months now. A lot of people ask me why I feel it is necessary to have a screen on my wrist, and I certainly get why some would see it as a massive distraction. You have to be selective with your notifications. Generally speaking, I find it very useful, though not necessarily invaluable.
But every now and then I come across a new use case and think to myself, "well this is pretty cool." I recently discovered that you can use it for boarding passes, which means one less thing in your hands at the airport. And this week I've been using it while snowboarding, which is helpful if you're trying to manage a WhatsApp group chat and you don't want to take your phone out on the lifts.
The numbers also suggest I'm not alone in finding utility. Here are Apple's sales numbers from Neil Cybart of Above Avalon:
Apple has sold more than 90 million Apple Watches to date with 29 million sold in calendar year 2019. With an average selling price of more than $400, the Apple Watch is bringing in $12 billion of revenue per year, and that total is growing by 30% per year. After taking into account upgrade trends, the number of people wearing an Apple Watch has crossed 65 million. Based on my forward projections, the Apple Watch installed base will surpass 100 million people in 2021.
In Neil's view, the Apple Watch is indeed one of those paradigm shifts in computing. It is taking over tasks that our phones used to do and it is allowing for entirely new use cases. Neil cites three important features. We are now able to (1) seamlessly track/monitor aspects of our health, (2) intelligently receive small bits of information, and (3) augment our surroundings ("contextual awareness.")
For more on why the Apple Watch is / could be fundamentally changing mobile tech, click here.
At the beginning of this year – January 2nd to be exact – Apple revised its earnings guidance, downward. It was the first time in 15 years that the company had to do this.
Tim Cook’s letter to shareholders, which can be found here, focuses a lot on China and its “economic deceleration.” But M.G. Siegler of 500ish Words believes that a greater pivot could be underway. His piece can be found here. It’s a good read.
Firstly, Apple’s current growth period is probably over. And secondly, the company is likely going to need to diversify away from high margin hardware/software sales and continue to grow its Services business (something that Microsoft has, ironically, already done).
I have been using an Apple Watch for a couple of months now. A lot of people ask me why I feel it is necessary to have a screen on my wrist, and I certainly get why some would see it as a massive distraction. You have to be selective with your notifications. Generally speaking, I find it very useful, though not necessarily invaluable.
But every now and then I come across a new use case and think to myself, "well this is pretty cool." I recently discovered that you can use it for boarding passes, which means one less thing in your hands at the airport. And this week I've been using it while snowboarding, which is helpful if you're trying to manage a WhatsApp group chat and you don't want to take your phone out on the lifts.
The numbers also suggest I'm not alone in finding utility. Here are Apple's sales numbers from Neil Cybart of Above Avalon:
Apple has sold more than 90 million Apple Watches to date with 29 million sold in calendar year 2019. With an average selling price of more than $400, the Apple Watch is bringing in $12 billion of revenue per year, and that total is growing by 30% per year. After taking into account upgrade trends, the number of people wearing an Apple Watch has crossed 65 million. Based on my forward projections, the Apple Watch installed base will surpass 100 million people in 2021.
In Neil's view, the Apple Watch is indeed one of those paradigm shifts in computing. It is taking over tasks that our phones used to do and it is allowing for entirely new use cases. Neil cites three important features. We are now able to (1) seamlessly track/monitor aspects of our health, (2) intelligently receive small bits of information, and (3) augment our surroundings ("contextual awareness.")
For more on why the Apple Watch is / could be fundamentally changing mobile tech, click here.
At the beginning of this year – January 2nd to be exact – Apple revised its earnings guidance, downward. It was the first time in 15 years that the company had to do this.
Tim Cook’s letter to shareholders, which can be found here, focuses a lot on China and its “economic deceleration.” But M.G. Siegler of 500ish Words believes that a greater pivot could be underway. His piece can be found here. It’s a good read.
Firstly, Apple’s current growth period is probably over. And secondly, the company is likely going to need to diversify away from high margin hardware/software sales and continue to grow its Services business (something that Microsoft has, ironically, already done).
The iPhone has simply been too good of a business. And it’s hard to see what tops it. Certainly in the near term. If Services is to carry Apple in the future, it will likely be only after years of relatively stagnant iPhone revenue growth mixed with a rising overall market. In other words, time and the broader world will have to catch up. And then Apple can have their “Microsoft Moment” — a services-based resurrection of growth.
As Tim points out in his letter, most of Apple’s Services revenue is tied to its installed base, as opposed to current period sales (also: less exposure to China). Last quarter that number was $10.8 billion – a new record.
So what we may see in the near future is the end of outright phone purchases and instead some sort of iPhone as a Service (or iPaaS). Pay Apple every month in perpetuity; always have the latest iPhone.
Of course, Apple has many other irons in the fire. Apple Watch has turned out to be a big business and the company is said to have 2,700 “core employees” working on its autonomous driving project.
Maybe some of these businesses will also end up as Services.
Today was Apple’s big “Spring Forward” event. We already knew the Watch was coming, but now we know that it’ll be available for sale on April 24, 2015 and that their high-end “Edition” line will start at just $10,000.
Within the tech community, there are mixed opinions when it comes to the Apple Watch. Some think it’ll be a total flop. Some think it’ll be the next iPhone. And some think it’ll do reasonably well, but that it just won’t be the next category killer for Apple.
I personally think it will do really well.
I think there are enough use cases for which looking at your wrist is a better experience than pulling out your phone – particularly for quick glance activities. Think payments, transit fares, airline tickets, location-based notifications, and so on.
However, one of the big challenges for Apple Watch will be that they’re trying to replace an entrenched fashion piece. So not only is Apple trying to solve a problem that most people didn’t know they had, but they’re also trying to get people to give up their Movado or Patek Philippe – which is why they created a super high-end line.
Whatever the case may be, I plan to pre-order a Watch next month (just the regular one, not the $10,000 one).
I’m excited to try the health features (it’s a passion of mine). I’m excited to see what kind of data this new device generates both for me personally and in aggregate. And I’m excited to see what clever software developers end up creating for this new platform. Because that’s where the real potential lies.
It might not seem like a big deal to move a computer from your pocket to your wrist (assuming people are willing to do that). But I think we’ll all be surprised at what kind of new ideas that generates.
Hopefully I’ll soon be able to board a Toronto streetcar and tap my wrist to pay the fare. That would certainly be a civilized way to travel.
What about you? Do you plan on buying an Apple Watch?
The iPhone has simply been too good of a business. And it’s hard to see what tops it. Certainly in the near term. If Services is to carry Apple in the future, it will likely be only after years of relatively stagnant iPhone revenue growth mixed with a rising overall market. In other words, time and the broader world will have to catch up. And then Apple can have their “Microsoft Moment” — a services-based resurrection of growth.
As Tim points out in his letter, most of Apple’s Services revenue is tied to its installed base, as opposed to current period sales (also: less exposure to China). Last quarter that number was $10.8 billion – a new record.
So what we may see in the near future is the end of outright phone purchases and instead some sort of iPhone as a Service (or iPaaS). Pay Apple every month in perpetuity; always have the latest iPhone.
Of course, Apple has many other irons in the fire. Apple Watch has turned out to be a big business and the company is said to have 2,700 “core employees” working on its autonomous driving project.
Maybe some of these businesses will also end up as Services.
Today was Apple’s big “Spring Forward” event. We already knew the Watch was coming, but now we know that it’ll be available for sale on April 24, 2015 and that their high-end “Edition” line will start at just $10,000.
Within the tech community, there are mixed opinions when it comes to the Apple Watch. Some think it’ll be a total flop. Some think it’ll be the next iPhone. And some think it’ll do reasonably well, but that it just won’t be the next category killer for Apple.
I personally think it will do really well.
I think there are enough use cases for which looking at your wrist is a better experience than pulling out your phone – particularly for quick glance activities. Think payments, transit fares, airline tickets, location-based notifications, and so on.
However, one of the big challenges for Apple Watch will be that they’re trying to replace an entrenched fashion piece. So not only is Apple trying to solve a problem that most people didn’t know they had, but they’re also trying to get people to give up their Movado or Patek Philippe – which is why they created a super high-end line.
Whatever the case may be, I plan to pre-order a Watch next month (just the regular one, not the $10,000 one).
I’m excited to try the health features (it’s a passion of mine). I’m excited to see what kind of data this new device generates both for me personally and in aggregate. And I’m excited to see what clever software developers end up creating for this new platform. Because that’s where the real potential lies.
It might not seem like a big deal to move a computer from your pocket to your wrist (assuming people are willing to do that). But I think we’ll all be surprised at what kind of new ideas that generates.
Hopefully I’ll soon be able to board a Toronto streetcar and tap my wrist to pay the fare. That would certainly be a civilized way to travel.
What about you? Do you plan on buying an Apple Watch?
