One thing that I do not do on this blog is provide investment advice. And this post is certainly not that. But here's an idea and thought exercise that relates to urban mobility. Let's assume you own a personal vehicle that is currently valued at US$30k, and that this car is what you use to go about your daily life. Now imagine that you sold this car today, harvested all of the proceeds, and invested them into the following three companies: Uber, Alphabet, and Tesla. If you did this equally, your US$30k would end up as the following (based on today's share prices and if rounded down):
111 shares in Uber ($89.56/share)
49 shares in Alphabet ($201.42/share)
30 shares in Tesla ($329.68/share)
Then, instead of driving yourself around, you'd put the money that you would have normally spent on insurance, gas, and maintenance toward Ubers and Waymos (assuming Waymo is available in your city). Perhaps you even own a parking spot that could be rented out for an extra few hundred dollars each month. Whatever the specifics, let's just assume that what you used to spend to operate and service your car is now being spent on getting around using ride sharing services. It's a wash. So the only difference is that instead of having US$30k tied up in a depreciating asset, you're now part owner of the above three businesses.
This, once again, is not investment advice. I personally don't know how to make sense of Tesla's current valuation. There's a hell of a lot of optimism being priced in. I'm simply picking these three companies as a way to bet on Waymo's autonomous vehicle program (which is currently in the lead), Tesla's robotaxi promises (which, who knows, could actually materialize), and the fact that Uber might still remain the dominant marketplace for rides (though there's already evidence that Waymo is on track to overtake Uber in San Francisco within the next ~8 months).
It's not clear who will be the primary beneficiary of this shifting mobility landscape. Is Tesla right about
Remember Wuhan? Well, it turns out that it is emerging as an important hub for driverless vehicles. Right now it is home to the largest fleet in the world:
In Wuhan, 500 robotaxis, mostly run by Baidu, China’s rival to Google, recorded more than 730,000 ride-hailing trips last year. That compares with combined orders of more than 700,000 last year in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, according to Waymo, the self-driving car developer of Google’s parent company Alphabet. Waymo told the Financial Times that it had “a couple of hundred cars” in each of the three fully autonomous zones.
One of the things that is allegedly helping Chinese companies is that they have access to more data. The networks of cameras and other infrastructure that make Chinese cities the most surveilled in the world are, coincidentally, also good for training machine learning models.
This has some industry experts speculating that China could reach an autonomous vehicle "tipping point" sometime around 2027. Meaning, the technologies will be significantly safer than human drivers (at least 10x) and ready for mass adoption.
I don't know if this is the right timeline. There have been many forecasts made over the years. But I do know that competition is good for progress and that having a rival can be an important motivator. And right now, this is yet another example of the US vs. China.
