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Ground-related housing vs. apartment permits across the Greater Golden Horseshoe

Here are two charts from a recent blog post by Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development. The charts compare residential building permits issued for ground-related housing vs. apartment suites.

Over the last two quarters (Q4 2020 and Q1 2021), the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) issued a record (all-time record?) number of permits: 39,734 housing units. This represents a 56% year-over-year increase.

The biggest contributor to this increase is, not surprisingly, apartment units. These permits saw a 73.6% year-over-year increase. There’s simply no other way to deliver this amount of new housing — at least in the context of the GGH. You have to go up.

But given the price increases that we have seen across the region for ground-related housing, Ryerson’s CUR concludes that there must be a strong home buyer preference that is simply not being met by the amount of low-rise supply we are delivering.

Notwithstanding this potential mismatch, I don’t see things changing anytime soon.

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