Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

  • Flights per day

    I recently wrote about this visual essay – showing the world’s population – from The Pudding.

    They have some great essays. So I went exploring today. 

    Here is one that looks at the phenomenon of “poor-country urbanization” by way of the number of flights per day from a city.

    The argument is that a low number of daily flights means that the city, despite perhaps having a large number of people, is actually quite disconnected from the global economy.

    Typically, people moving from rural areas to urban areas has tended to translate into rising incomes. It has lifted people out of poverty.

    But today we’re seeing examples of poor urbanization, where the migration is less about opportunity and more about necessity.

    While maybe crude, this measuring stick of flights per day piqued my curiosity. So here are some preliminary figures from the Airports Council International for 2017:

    The primary example mentioned in the essay is that of Kinshasa, which is the capital of the DRC. 

    It has a population of around 13 million people, but only 13 departing flights per day. (I’m assuming its “total movements” would be higher.)

    Based on the above list, ATL has ~2,461 total movements per day (defined as an aircraft either landing or taking-off). And YYZ has ~1,275 movements per day.

  • San Francisco’s tax for the homeless

    Proposition C will be on San Francisco’s ballots this November 6th, 2018. 

    If approved by voters, the following additional taxes would be levied on businesses in order to create a dedicated fund to both support and prevent homelessness in the city:

    For businesses that pay a gross receipts tax, an additional tax of 0.175 percent to 0.690 percent on those gross revenues in San Francisco over $50 million;

    For businesses that pay the administrative office tax, an additional tax of 1.5 percent of their payroll expense in San Francisco.

    Marc Benioff – the founder of Salesforce (which happens to be the city’s largest employer) – has emerged as the lead supporter of Prop C. Between personal and corporate funds, he has contributed almost $8 million to getting this passed.

    But other billionaires in the Bay Area, such as Jack Dorsey of Twitter, have taken a different position, instead siding with Mayor London Breed, who does not support Prop C. 

    If you’re interested in this topic, the New Yorker has a piece called, The Battle of the Big-Tech Titans Over San Francisco’s Tax for the Homeless

  • World’s most diverse city-region

    For those of you who aren’t going to be in Toronto next week, you can stop reading now and check back tomorrow. For the rest of you, next week is The Future Cities Canada Summit, which will be taking place from November 7 – 9. Full schedule, here.

    Day 1 equals the Urban Land Institute Symposium 2018, which is all about Toronto urbanism. The tagline is: “Explore the urban frontiers of North America’s fastest growing, and the world’s most diverse city-region.” 

    A big part of day 1 will be bus tours around the city. And one of those tours is going to be focused on Toronto’s laneways. I am a speaker on that tour and the bus will be stopping at Junction House to talk about the laneway houses that we plan to release as part of the project.

    But there’s much more to this summit than just laneway housing.

  • Transit tech lab launches in NYC

    image

    Earlier this month, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) and the Partnership for New York City launched a new vertical accelerator dedicated to public transit. The mission is to make the city a global leader in this space.

    Applications are open until November 30, 2018 and they are looking for early and growth stage companies that address one or both of the following challenges:

    1. How can we better predict subway incident impacts and serve customers?
    2. How can we make buses faster and more efficient?

    Selected companies will go through an 8-week accelerator and, at the end of it, the most promising companies will partner with the MTA on a 12-month pilot. So it is an opportunity to potentially test your product(s) on the largest transit authority in the US.

    If you’d like to apply, you can do that here.

    Photo by Tim Gouw on Unsplash

  • The five rules of wealth creation

    Jamaican-Canadian billionaire, Michael Lee-Chin, was in ROB Magazine last week talking about how he grew up, how he got into the investment industry, and how he thinks about wealth creation.

    I met Michael once back in 2009 thanks to an introduction by my father. And at that meeting I remember him explaining the five rules of wealth creation. It’s his formula and he’s been practicing it since 1978.

    Everybody who creates wealth does five things: They own a few high-quality businesses. They make sure they really understand those businesses. They make sure those few businesses are in strong, long-term-growth industries. They use other people’s money to invest in them. And they vow to hold them as long as they remain great businesses.

    That’s consistency. And he’s a pretty consistent guy. The other quote I would like to share from the article is this one here:

    Outside wealth is created when there’s a difference between perception and reality, when there are inefficiencies, and when there’s a lack of equity capital flowing into the country, sector or company.

    This is something that we have talked about before on the blog. The real value creation happens when you believe in and you’re right about something that most people think is wrong.

    As Michael says in the article, you have to be willing to swim upstream, because floating downstream is far too easy and will only get you to the same place as everyone else.

  • A moral compass for autonomous vehicles

    One of the challenges that self-driving vehicles present is not about technology per se, it is about ethics. The typical example scenario is this one: If a pedestrian were to step out in front of an autonomous vehicle illegally, should the car be programmed to hit the pedestrian or veer off the road at the risk of potentially harming its passengers?

    I believe that self-driving vehicles will ultimately result in fewer accidents. Statistically they will be safer. But self-driving vehicles, particularly early on, are going to get a lot of attention when they do get into accidents, even if they are still safer as a whole. And that’s because they will make for good headlines.

    Safety and statistics aside, in turns out that the answer to the above moral question could depend on where you’re from. Nature recently published what they are calling the largest ever survey of “machine ethics.” And out of this survey they discovered some pretty distinct regional variations across the 130 different countries that responded.

    The responses were able to be grouped into 3 main buckets: Western, Eastern, and Southern. Here is the moral compass that was published in Nature:

    And here are a few examples. In North America and in some European countries where Christianity has historically dominated, there was a preference to sacrifice older lives for younger ones. So that would guide how one might program the car for the case in which a pedestrian steps out in front.

    In countries with strong government institutions, such as Japan and Finland, people were more likely to say that the pedestrian – who, remember, stepped out onto the road illegally – should be hit. Whereas countries with a high level of income inequality, often chose to kill poorer people in order to save richer people. Colombia, for example, responded this way.

    Also interesting is the ethical paradox that this discussion raises. Throughout the survey, many people responded by saying that, in our example here, the pedestrian should be saved at the expense of the passengers. But they also responded by saying that they would never ever buy a car that would do this. Their safety comes first in the buying decision. And I can see that.

    There’s an argument that these are fairly low probability scenarios. I mean, the last time you swerved your car, you probably weren’t driving on the edge of a cliff where any deviation from the path meant you would tumble to your death. But I still think that these are infinitely interesting questions that will need to be answered. And perhaps the answer will depend on which city you’re in.

  • China has a lot of people

    Matt Daniels over at The Pudding recently visualized the world’s population in this spiky 3D map. You need to take a look. Better on desktop.

    The data is from 2015, but you can also compare it to and show the change from 1990.

    Here is the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region (16.8 million people reside in this screen grab):

    Here is the New York City region (55.4 million people reside in this screen grab):

    And here is China (1.054 billion people reside in this screen grab):

    I tried to capture both Shanghai and Hong Kong in this image. Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen are currently in the mist of forming a 40 million-person megalopolis.

    If we pan back over to the northeastern United States and Central Canada – keeping the same scale as the above image from China – it looks like this:

    These last two images say a lot. 

  • Project Profile: Coal Drops Yard

    A new retail district called, Coal Drops Yard, opened this week in King’s Cross, London. The architecture is by Heatherwick Studio and the project is absolutely stunning. I love the idea of taking the roofs of the existing buildings and delaminating them to create the new spaces. It is a good example of old meets something new and cool. Here is a short video that I think many of you will enjoy. If you can’t see it below, click here.

    [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLUGxPP0iNw&w=560&h=315]

    Image: Heatherwick Studio

  • Plus atelier

    This morning I went through some of the floor plans for King Toronto, which are now up on BuzzBuzzHome. In case you’re wondering, they are currently showing an average price of $1604 per square foot.

    Here is a 1 bedroom + atelier:

    And here is a 2 bedroom + atelier:

    Right away you’ll probably notice a few things. 

    There are no dens in these plans. They have been replaced with ateliers, which sounds cool. I want my own atelier where I make things. But it may also be a clever way to get around calling them studies or nooks.

    A lot of people in the industry have been commenting on how they’ve included the exterior living space in the calculation of total area. That seems logical to me, especially for a project like this where the terraces form such an integral part of the architecture.

    The other thing I noticed is that the buildings are, actually, being referred to as mountains. This has been part of the project’s design narrative since the beginning. So I like the consistency. The above plans are for suites within the “east mountain.” 

    But what I wanted to ask all of you today is whether you find the addition of a 3D plan helpful. It’s obviously not new, but it is still fairly uncommon, at least in this market. Do you think it’s worth it?

  • Buy land, Chip. Buy land.

    Bloomberg Businessweek just published a longish article about Vancouver and the Chinese capital that fuels it. It’s called, The City That Had Too Much Money. 

    Most of you are already familiar with this narrative, but here’s an excerpt that talks about the city’s economic base and its apparent dependency on foreign capital:

    Change will be difficult and fraught. Vancouver has been closely connected to Asia since the late 19th century, when the first Chinese laborers arrived to help build the trans-Canada railway, and the city is proud of its record of integrating immigrants. Also, beyond real estate, Vancouver’s economic base is shallow. It’s not the business capital of western Canada—that’s Calgary—and it has few major corporate headquarters or large-scale manufacturing operations. “Asian capital has kept this economy alive, end of story,” says Ron Shon, a Chinese-Canadian venture capitalist who arrived as a teenager in the late 1960s. “You can see it in every aspect of our lives.”

    One of the things I found particularly interesting were Chip Wilson’s comments around what is going on. Chip is the founder of Lululemon and is largely credited with pioneering the current “athleisure” trend.

    Yet as Wilson explains, sitting in his office on the top floor of a century-old warehouse, these days he’s as interested in bricks and mortar as in quick-drying fabrics. “The global capital flowing out of China across the world, you’d have to be an idiot not to acknowledge it,” he says. “You know, we could just be at the cusp of that.”

    To profit from the deluge, he’s been buying up land all over town, especially in False Creek Flats, a derelict industrial area that’s slated for redevelopment. He estimates that about a third of his holdings are now in real estate. British Columbia’s current government may succeed in slowing inflows temporarily, Wilson says, but China’s boom has created many multimillionaires who need a place to put their money. “So where do you go if you’re Chinese? Sydney, maybe. But nowhere, probably, is more friendly than Vancouver.” One way or another, he says, those funds will find their way to Canada.

    That’s why, Wilson says, whenever he returns from a trip to Asia, his first thought is simple: “Buy land, Chip. Buy land.”

    For the full article, click here.

    Image: Jens Kristian Balle/The Forbes Collection/Contour/Getty Images (via Bloomberg)