Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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  • The Dubai shock

    March 14, 2026 · View original

    It is worth reiterating that one of the main reasons the majority of people live in cities is because they would like to make money and improve their economic status. There are, of course, other reasons too, but making money is an enduring attractor. In Alain Bertaud’s book, Order Without Design: How Markets Shape Cities, he famously argued that cities are, first and foremost, labour markets.

    Because of this, the success of cities depends on their ability to harness talent and turn it into economic progress. New York City, for example, is the city it is today because it was the largest port of entry for immigrants. And because transportation costs were high at the time, people arrived in New York and stayed in New York to work and create businesses.

    The same thing is generally true today in the San Francisco Bay Area. It is estimated that roughly 50% of all tech startups and 59 of the top 100 highest-valued unicorns have a foreign-born founder. (I’d love to know what percentage are Canadian graduates of the University of Waterloo.) These are immigrants looking for money and economic opportunity, and the local ecosystem is providing the right preconditions.

    But if the preconditions for success disappear, people will start to both leave and not come in the first place. So, it’s also worth reiterating that the fortunes of cities have always risen and fallen over a long enough time horizon. Here’s a great excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article by Richard Frost and Mary Hui, talking about what “war-rattled Dubai can learn from Hong Kong’s expat exodus.”

    > Financial centers rise and fall with the tides of geopolitics. From the mid-1500s, the tiny Portuguese enclave of Macau served as the primary intermediary for trade between Europe, Japan and China. In the mid-1800s, it was displaced by Hong Kong, which Britain secured by defeating the Qing dynasty. Hong Kong, in turn, was overtaken by Shanghai in the 1920s, when its more glamorous though still Western-run rival became the wealthiest city in East Asia. Both were occupied by Japanese forces during World War II, and their expatriate elite were interned in camps. > > Shanghai never regained its prewar status. After their 1949 victory in China’s civil war, the Communists seized foreign-owned assets, bringing an end to the dominance of one of Asia’s most prominent business dynasties — the Baghdadi-Jewish Sassoon family, known as the “Rothschilds of the East.” The exodus of wealthy Shanghainese to Hong Kong helped lay the foundations for the city’s modern-day revival as Asia’s leading financial hub.

    But between the protests of the 2010s, the 2020 national security law, and the draconian pandemic lockdowns, in recent years, it did feel like Hong Kong might be at risk of losing at least some of its status as a global financial hub. According to the latest Global Financial Centres Index, Hong Kong is still ranked third, behind New York and London, respectively. But Singapore is nipping at its heels in fourth position.

    Today, some are arguing that the current turmoil in the Middle East has broken the promise of Dubai as a stable, global financial capital where influencers roam freely on the beach. People are, not surprisingly, leaving in the immediate term, but will it be lasting? I think it’s too early to be calling the fall of Dubai, but there’s no question that this is a meaningful exogenous shock. Its real estate index fell 30% in two weeks.

    History shows us that there are no guarantees. Preeminence exists until something happens, and then it doesn’t. If this war becomes protracted, it will be a major problem for Dubai. Capital and talent want openness, stability, opportunity, and a favourable business environment (keep taxes reasonable and get out of the way). After all, it’s arguably the main reason why people come to cities in the first place.

    Cover photo by Sepehr Moradian on Unsplash

    Chart via the Global Financial Centres Index

  • Singapore’s Build-to-Order housing model

    March 13, 2026 · View original

    It is well known that the majority of Singaporeans live in public housing (that is, housing provided by the Housing and Development Board, or HDB). However, what you may not know is that the majority of residents obtain their housing through a model that shares some high-level similarities with the way we deliver new condominiums in Toronto.

    In 2001, the HDB introduced a program known as Build-to-Order (BTO). The way it works is fairly straightforward: the HDB announces a new project, prospective buyers apply and are assigned a queue number, and then, if they’re selected, they get to buy. Once a sufficient number of “pre-sales” have been obtained, the project begins construction, and buyers get a brand-new, subsidized apartment in 3 to 5 years.

    Singapore also mandates that the apartments must be owner-occupied and so, in this carefully controlled delivery model, supply very closely mirrors demand. This is different from traditional condominium pre-sales where some buyers might be end users, some might be planning to rent out the home, and some might want to sell immediately upon completion. In those markets, the risk of overbuilding and speculative volatility is greater.

    HDB classifies the apartments themselves into three groups: Standard, Plus, and Prime. This classification is meant to reflect the locational value of certain projects; but importantly, the intent is that they’re all equally attainable to citizens. The difference is that “choicer” locations (their vocabulary — now you have a new Scrabble word) require greater subsidies to make them affordable, and so they come with additional obligations.

    For example, in the case of Prime flats, there is a subsidy recovery upon any future sale (I’m told it’s between 6-9% of the first resale price), the minimum occupation period (MOP) is 10 years (versus 5 for the Standard class), and you can never ever rent out the whole home, even once the MOP has lapsed. Once again, this is about strictly matching new supply to end-user demand.

    It’s a lot of rules. But in Singapore, the majority of people accept them in exchange for affordability.

    Cover photo: Tengah, Singapore via Monocle

    Chart: Housing and Development Board

  • What your grocery store might say about your home value

    March 12, 2026 · View original

    After this post, I promise to stop continually plugging the work and writing of Aziz Sunderji — at least for a few days. Over the weekend, I wrote about his recent post on happiness in America. Today, his latest post is about what happens to home prices after a particular grocery store opens. And for this, he looked at 32,000 store openings dating back to the mid-1970s and then compared them to ZIP-code-level home price data.

    Here’s what he found:

    The average Walmart neighbourhood in this study has a median household income of $49,000, a college degree attainment rate of 23%, and a median home price of $144,000. And when a new Walmart opens, home prices have tended to underperform the national average by about 4% in the three years that follow.

    On the flip side, the average Trader Joe’s neighbourhood has a median household income of $82,000, a college degree attainment rate of 52%, and a median home value of $425,000.

    Importantly, though, Trader Joe’s isn’t just picking neighbourhoods with obviously favourable demographics (retail is a lagging indicator — it generally comes once the demand is already there). It seems to be picking neighbourhoods that, in the words of Aziz, have “room to keep running.” In the three years that follow a new Trader Joe’s opening, homes in those ZIP codes have tended to outperform the national average by 6%!

    One of the fascinating things about this finding is that it seems to perfectly support the company’s target market. It has been said that Joe Coulombe (founder of the company) used to describe his target customer as “overeducated and underpaid.” In other words, he actively targeted university graduates.

    But being underpaid only lasts so long. We know that educational attainment is typically the single best predictor of household income. So, if you target this group, chances are that they’ll eventually become fairly paid or maybe even overpaid. And when this happens, I guess it shows up in area home prices.

    Cover photo by Karolina Bobek on Unsplash

    Chart from Home Economics

  • When’s the bottom?

    March 11, 2026 · View original

    Howard Chai recently reported in the Globe and Mail on the number of “distressed” commercial real estate transactions that Canada has seen over the last few years:

    – 2023: 119 transactions totalling $767 million – 2024: 191 transactions totalling more than $1.5 billion – 2025: 252 transactions totalling more than $1.42 billion

    These numbers are from Altus Group and they, importantly, only include sales involving a court proceeding. They do not include properties sold at a loss because of financial distress or any other such scenarios. This means that the actual amount of “distress” in the market is certainly greater. We’re all just holding on.

    The hardest-hit asset class is, not surprisingly, development land. This makes sense because the value of development land is mostly binary right now. Either you can do something productive with it (in which case there’s value) or you can’t, and it’s illiquid. Land is risky. It just doesn’t seem that way when the market is hot.

    The theme of the article is that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Jeremiah Shamess of Colliers is cited as saying he thinks we will see the “emergence of a bottom” late this year or early into 2027. He must have read my annual predictions post in January, where I argued the same.

    These periods of time always suck for everyone involved. But as is always the case in markets, the faster we deal with the pain, the faster we’ll get to the other side. Failure is an essential part of capitalism. As many have said: “Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.”

    Cover photo by Damian Kravchuk on Unsplash

  • The urban inhale

    March 10, 2026 · View original

    I saw Paul Graham write this week that “Cities inhale and exhale each generation. People move to cities in their 20s in search of colleagues and mates, move back out to raise their kids, and then when their kids are in their 20s, they return.”

    I don’t like it being presented in such a single-minded way, but there is, of course, a lot of truth to this remark, particularly for North American cities. It’s basically the “dumbbell” housing demand profile that we in the industry often talk about.

    Whether you believe this is an innate housing preference, a deeply-rooted cultural bias, a fundamental truth about the optimal way to raise children, or the result of poor land-use decisions, it is a common housing outcome and, in some cities, the de facto housing outcome. But again, it is not universally the case.

    This is a semi-regular topic on this blog, but I’ve been thinking about it more now that Bianca and I are about to graduate to being urban parents. In fact, now that it has become known, we’ve started getting some questions: “So, do you think you will move to a house?” (We live in an apartment condominium.) And sometimes it’s not even a question; it’s a flat-out assumption: “Once you move to a house…”

    I wasn’t aware that this was a prerequisite. Little do they know that I spend my free time fantasizing about apartment renovations in Paris, Tokyo, and Rio de Janeiro.

    I’m sure that our thinking will evolve over time, but to a meaningful extent, I would classify us as being typologically agnostic, and instead resolute on a particular kind of urban context. What matters most to us is that we remain in a city where we can walk or bike to things, where a car is not an absolute necessity, and where exciting and cultured things take place from time to time.

    I’m not sure what definition of “city” Paul had in mind when he was talking about people leaving it. Did he mean downtowns? Are the inner suburbs within a city an acceptable geography? I don’t know, but I can confidently say that leaving the city is the last thing on our minds right now.

    Maybe that will change. Or maybe it won’t.

    Cover photo by Henry Ren on Unsplash

  • When autonomy is a solution to the wrong urban problem

    March 9, 2026 · View original

    If you have a long, painful, soul-crushing commute, Tesla has a solution for you: Full Self-Driving (their autonomous, but still supervised, self-driving technology). And it makes sense that Tesla would position its product in this way. A great deal of our built environment (the vast majority of it in some geographies) has been designed around the car. We are dependent. And this is an obvious solution to its negatives.

    To be clear, I’m excited about autonomy, which is why it’s a frequent topic on this blog. But the urbanist in me can’t help but think that positioning it in this way is in some ways a solution to the wrong problem. Here’s an alternative solution: live and work in a walkable, transit-oriented community.

    Imagine, for instance, pitching this Tesla positioning to a Tokyoite. Tokyo is reported to have the highest railway modal split in the world. According to some measurements, only something like 12% of trips in the city are done by car. So if you said, “FSD is the solution to your long and boring commute. Now you can just sit, relax, read a book, do work, or play on your phone!” it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine Tokyoites saying that they already do this on a train.

    Of course, Tokyo is a unique place, and there are lots of car-dependent cities where there is simply no other practical option. I also recognize that housing attainability is a major driver of sprawl. In these cases, FSD represents a meaningful quality-of-life upgrade.

    Again, I support this happening, but at the same time, I worry about it placating us into thinking that we’ve solved one of the major negatives of urban sprawl. Yes, you have to sit in a car for two hours each day, but now you’re not actually driving. Isn’t that, like, so much better? In a best-case scenario, we maintain the status quo when it comes to our built environment. And in the worst-case scenario, it leads to even more sprawl.

    This is an open question that we have on this blog: To what extent will self-driving cars increase our willingness to commute? Historically, new mobility technologies have promoted urban sprawl because they allowed us to travel greater distances in the same amount of time. Consider streetcar suburbs and then our car-oriented suburbs.

    A big part of the AV argument is not that they will solve traffic congestion (they won’t); it’s that they will make your commute suck a lot less, and in an even rosier scenario, become a kind of “third space” where people work, relax, or whatever. This, in turn, will make sprawl more widely palatable.

    But the more I think about this, the less I believe it. Marchetti’s Constant tells us that humans have generally maintained a consistent “time budget” for commuting irrespective of the technology being used. Will this time really be different?

    On the flip side, there are many who would argue that urban sprawl is a natural market outcome. Not everyone wants the “utopian, socially-engineered dream” that urbanists and YIMBYs like me want. And this is a fair response. I believe in individual freedoms. Give people housing options (we’re very bad at this) and let them choose where they want to live.

    But we should acknowledge the tradeoffs. Traffic congestion is a clear byproduct of urban sprawl and land-use patterns that leave no other practical option for getting around. Complaining about traffic is complaining about sprawl. One more lane or cars that drive themselves have not been shown to change this relationship.

    Sprawl also contributes to greater loneliness and declines in happiness. In 2000, Robert Putnam argued in his book, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, that, roughly speaking, every 10 minutes of additional travel time leads to a 10% reduction in social connections. We spend less time with our families, friends, and communities.

    There’s little doubt that self-driving cars will make commutes more tolerable. But perhaps that’s not ambitious enough.

    Cover photo by HONG FENG on Unsplash

  • The happiness recession

    March 8, 2026 · View original

    The fact that we still refer to things as pre- and post-COVID shows just how impactful this period of time was in our lives. What initially seemed like house arrest for only a few weeks ended up having a lasting impact. One of those impacts appears to be happiness. In a recent post by Aziz Sunderji, who is the author of Home Economics (you should subscribe), he shared this chart:

    The data is taken from the General Social Survey. What it shows is the shift in the “very happy” group of Americans, and the ten demographic groups that experienced the biggest declines in reported happiness. Overall, the share of Americans reporting to be “very happy” has dropped from 29% before COVID (2016-18) to 22% in our post-COVID world (2022-24).

    The biggest decline is among those who make the most money and were previously quite happy. Top earners went from 49% reporting they were “very happy” to 30%. On the other end of the spectrum, the unhappiest people moved the least. If you were unhappy before, chances are you have a similar level of unhappiness today. All of this is problematic.

    This is an important societal problem to solve, and I’m not going to come close to doing that in today’s pithy blog post. But I did want to point out two things (the latter of which is the key takeaway in Aziz’s post).

    First, I think it’s important to note that at the top of this chart are those with “excellent health.” The older I get, the more I have come to realize that the greatest luxury in life is our health. If you don’t have your health, nothing else matters. This probably seems obvious, but it remains a real challenge in our increasingly sedentary world.

    Second, Aziz notes that the groups that held up the best in terms of happiness all shared one trait: social connection. Interacting with other humans and your friends is good for your mental health!

    Of course, the problem is that we are designing our cities and our economies in the opposite direction. Call it “sedentary isolation.” AI is a powerful multiplier that allows us to do and produce more while we sit at our desks. And autonomous vehicles are in the process of making long, painful commutes more enjoyable. Now you have more time to sit and stare at a screen while a car drives you!

    This is not to say that I’m against these new technologies. I’m not. But driving or not, I don’t want to sit in an AV for hours each day. There are real individual and collective costs to social isolation and car-dependent land-use patterns. Let’s not forget the simple merits of living in a walkable neighbourhood and socializing with friends, in person.

    Cover photo by Ryan Searle on Unsplash

    Chart from Aziz Sunderji, “The Great Happiness Compression,” Home Economics.

  • Come cycle with us in support of brain health

    March 7, 2026 · View original

    Regular readers of this blog might remember that last “summer” (it was still chilly), I biked for brain health here in Toronto.

    I rode 75 km, raised $3,800, and helped Multiplex Construction Canada raise over $14,000, with 100% of these donations going directly to the Baycrest Foundation to fund work related to dementia, Alzheimer’s, and other brain-related illnesses.

    This summer I’ll be riding again on Sunday, May 31, 2026, except with a few changes:

    – They’ve moved the starting location to the Aga Khan Museum (architecture by the Pritzker Prize-winning Japanese architect Fumihiko Maki). – They’ve increased the longest circuit to 90 km. – We’ve created our own Globizen team! If we’re feeling really ambitious, maybe we’ll even create our own cycling bibs. (This strikes me as a low probability scenario.)

    If you’re up for it, I would encourage you to join our team and ride for brain health. Alternatively, you can always just participate with your wallet.

    Full disclosure caveat: Bianca and I are expecting our first child (a girl) in June. This ride is closeish to the due date, creating at a minimum three possible scenarios for the day:

    – Scenario one is that she is not yet born on May 31 and I ride as one would expect. – Scenario two is that she is born early, and I then spend this Sunday morning at home in some kind of sleep-deprived state. (Or, the “vibe” is that I should probably stay home.) – And I suppose scenario three is that I don’t finish the ride and I end up at the hospital in head-to-toe lycra, clicking and clacking around in my cycling shoes.

    Scenarios one and two feel more optimal, in my humble opinion.

    Cover photo: Len Abelman (Principal at WZMH Architects) and me completing the Bike for Brain Health end-of-summer follow-up ride in September 2025.

  • The illiquidity advantage

    March 6, 2026 · View original

    Conventional wisdom suggests that if you’re going to invest $10 million into an illiquid real estate investment that will not bear delicious fruit for 7 to 10 years, you may want to be compensated for the illiquid nature of your commitment. In other words, there’s an “illiquidity premium.” Flexibility is worth something. If you can get the same return and have the flexibility to get your money back when you want it, isn’t that better? I don’t know; maybe that’s not always the case. Here’s an excerpt from a clever article written by Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, where he argues the reverse:

    > If people get that PE [private equity] is truly volatile but you just don’t see it, what’s all the excitement about? Well, big time multi-year illiquidity and its oft-accompanying pricing opacity may actually be a feature not a bug! Liquid, accurately priced investments let you know precisely how volatile they are and they smack you in the face with it. What if many investors actually realize that this accurate and timely information will make them worse investors as they’ll use that liquidity to panic and redeem at the worst times? What if illiquid, very infrequently and inaccurately priced investments made them better investors as essentially it allows them to ignore such investments given low measured volatility and very modest paper drawdowns?

    Perhaps another way to think about illiquid private investments is that they kind of force you to think more like Warren Buffett. He has so many great lines to this effect: “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.” And: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” He has also written over the years about how a tolerance for short-term volatility can improve long-term prospects. So, behaving in this way, it would seem, is generally good for making money.

    The problem — and this is really Cliff’s more precise argument — is that the majority of people simply aren’t good at being like Warren Buffett. We’re impatient and emotional. That’s why he’s so remarkable. His approach certainly sounds simple, but it’s clearly not so easy. Illiquidity can help with this. It removes the fraught thinking part and might actually protect you from your own thoughts and emotions.

    Cover photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash

  • Construction is about to begin on the new Tour Montparnasse

    March 5, 2026 · View original

    At the end of this month, the last tenants will vacate the Tour Montparnasse in Paris to make way for its renovation. Nouvelle AOM, a collective of architects formed to respond to the project’s international design competition, first won the commission back in 2017. And initially, the plan was to complete the renovation in time for the Paris Olympics in 2024.

    But that time came and went, as it does, and now construction is starting this year. Nouvelle AOM, which includes Franklin Azzi Architecture, ChartierDalix Architectes, and Hardel Le Bihan Architectes, is in charge of the tower. And Renzo Piano Building Workshop is in charge of redesigning the commercial podium at the tower’s base.

    We’ve spoken about the Tour Montparnasse many times over the years on the blog (here, here, and here). Parisians customarily hate it, and after visiting it in 2023, I can confirm that it’s desperately in need of a renovation, and that the ground plane experience is abysmal at best. It is of that era where grandiose “slab-based planning” was going to elevate us beyond the pathologies of fine-grained urbanism.

    Here’s a Google image from atop the site’s enormous podium:

    What’s interesting about the design from Renzo Piano is that it will reuse a lot of the structure that’s already in place. The plan is to carefully open up the site, stitch it back together with the surrounding urban context, and then build up from there. Importantly, at the centre of the project will be a large, planted piazza that is intended to become a new civic space for the community.

    The project renovations are expected to last until “at least 2030.” So, we have several years until we’ll know if it’s an urban and financial success. But my prediction is that this project will positively transform how Parisians think about the Tour Montparnasse, and maybe how they think about tall buildings.

    The tower itself will, of course, need to be beautiful. It’s a highly visible object. There’s only a trifecta of buildings and structures inside Paris proper that exceed 150 meters in height: the Eiffel Tower, Tour Montparnasse, and the Tour Triangle (Herzog & de Meuron), which is currently under construction and expected to finish this year. In this case, architecture is not irrelevant.

    But it is the ground plane experience that will ultimately revitalize the area and demonstrate that tall buildings can be good urban neighbours, even in a sea of Haussmannian mid-rise buildings. I’ve said before that the reconfiguration of the podium is arguably the project’s most crucial design move.

    Get it right and you’ll see what happens.

    Cover photo by Luxigon via Nouvelle AOM

    Aerial and street view photos from Google

    Model photos from Renzo Piano Building Workshop