I am sure many of you are getting tired of the news. I know I am. But it turns out that when you're in a global pandemic and you spend the entirety of your day looking at Zoom -- while fidgeting your leg, I might add -- there's only so much else you can talk and write about.
One of the more interesting things you could read is Howard Marks' memos. Howard is the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management and, from what I can tell, he's been writing since 1990. Some years it's an annual memo and some years -- like this year -- he writes a bunch more. His most recent is regarding, "Knowledge of the Future."
If I had to summarize it: The future is unknowable and none of us can say with any certainty what the next quarter or the next year is going to look like. In Howard's words: "These days everyone has the same data regarding the present and the same ignorance regarding the future."
Most of the time, he explains, we simply extrapolate from the past and then apply our own biases to come up with a prediction. Howard describes himself as more of a worrier, whereas I would describe myself as more of an optimist. I believe, to a certain extent, in creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
I am sure many of you are getting tired of the news. I know I am. But it turns out that when you're in a global pandemic and you spend the entirety of your day looking at Zoom -- while fidgeting your leg, I might add -- there's only so much else you can talk and write about.
One of the more interesting things you could read is Howard Marks' memos. Howard is the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management and, from what I can tell, he's been writing since 1990. Some years it's an annual memo and some years -- like this year -- he writes a bunch more. His most recent is regarding, "Knowledge of the Future."
If I had to summarize it: The future is unknowable and none of us can say with any certainty what the next quarter or the next year is going to look like. In Howard's words: "These days everyone has the same data regarding the present and the same ignorance regarding the future."
Most of the time, he explains, we simply extrapolate from the past and then apply our own biases to come up with a prediction. Howard describes himself as more of a worrier, whereas I would describe myself as more of an optimist. I believe, to a certain extent, in creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
Notwithstanding our inability to predict the future (which isn't a new phenomenon), I think it's important to have opinions and take positions. Any decision is better than no decision,
Notwithstanding our inability to predict the future (which isn't a new phenomenon), I think it's important to have opinions and take positions. Any decision is better than no decision,
From the outset, people have been predicting that the internet would become a decentralizing force for cities. That is, technology would allow us to spread out and work from anywhere -- perhaps from a small mountain town in the BC interior. While working from home (WFH) and working from anywhere (WFA) does appear to be on the rise, it hasn't made cities irrelevant. (US Census data from 2018 estimates that only about 5.2% of Americans work entirely from home.) In fact, the "new economy" seems to have made superstar cities, such as London, seemingly even more important. It has concentrated economic activity; so much so that we're searching for ways to spread out income and wealth more evenly.
But could it be that the technology simply wasn't there yet? Fred Wilson posited on his blog today that right now might be video conferencing's moment. Between not wanting to travel (coronavirus, carbon footprint, time, etc...) and advancements in the actual technology, companies such as Zoom are changing the way people and companies engage over long distances. It is happening in our offices. And come to think of it, there are probably a bunch of meetings that I could and should switch over to Zoom. I'm not yet convinced that it will become a decentralizing force for cities. But it does seem to be empowering less travel and more flexibility.
From the outset, people have been predicting that the internet would become a decentralizing force for cities. That is, technology would allow us to spread out and work from anywhere -- perhaps from a small mountain town in the BC interior. While working from home (WFH) and working from anywhere (WFA) does appear to be on the rise, it hasn't made cities irrelevant. (US Census data from 2018 estimates that only about 5.2% of Americans work entirely from home.) In fact, the "new economy" seems to have made superstar cities, such as London, seemingly even more important. It has concentrated economic activity; so much so that we're searching for ways to spread out income and wealth more evenly.
But could it be that the technology simply wasn't there yet? Fred Wilson posited on his blog today that right now might be video conferencing's moment. Between not wanting to travel (coronavirus, carbon footprint, time, etc...) and advancements in the actual technology, companies such as Zoom are changing the way people and companies engage over long distances. It is happening in our offices. And come to think of it, there are probably a bunch of meetings that I could and should switch over to Zoom. I'm not yet convinced that it will become a decentralizing force for cities. But it does seem to be empowering less travel and more flexibility.
