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I was at a dinner recently where the topic of crypto came up. Only two of us at the table were full-on believers, and the rest were generally sceptics. So naturally, the two of us started talking about why we think crypto is important. But in moments like this, it always becomes immediately clear that crypto is really hard to explain in a succinct and compelling way. Like, I don't know how to do it. Thankfully, venture firm a16z just released their latest State of Crypto report, and so here are a handful of interesting takeaways.

The number of crypto addresses continues to grow. Currently it's at an all-time high of approximately 220 million, which roughly mirrors the adoption curve of the internet back in the 90s (log scale). It is, however, important to note that one crypto address does not necessarily correspond to one human being. For example, I have many different crypto addresses. So if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that their net estimate is somewhere between 30-60 million real human beings transacting using crypto every month. This is the estimated active user base and it continues to grow.

The number of mobile crypto wallet users is also growing rapidly outside of the US, namely in countries like Nigeria, India, and Argentina. This is the result of a number of factors: population growth, mobile phone adoption, government support, inflation, and many others. I mean, since 2010, the Argentine Peso has lost basically 99% of its value against the USD. So of course you'd rather put your money somewhere else, such as in stablecoins.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have their value pegged to something else, such as a fiat currency. Today, they are one of the most popular crypto products and virtually all of them (more than 99%) are pegged to the USD dollar. This is viewed by some as an opportunity to strengthen the dominance of the US dollar at a time when it's waning (see above). But more importantly, stablecoins already serve two important functions in the market: one, it's as stable as the US dollar; and two, the cost of sending a stablecoin anywhere in the world is now basically free. Say goodbye to bank wire transfers.
It's worth reiterating that a16z is a venture capital firm that is heavily invested in the crypto space. And so reports like this are naturally a form of marketing and a form of lobbying. Still, there's a lot of great information in here that you can use to form your own opinions about the sector. It may not be succinct, but if you take the time, I think you'll find it compelling.
I just finished listening to this podcast about venture capital and consumer products. One of the underlying questions is whether we are currently in a “consumer downturn.” Rebecca Kaden of Union Square Ventures (USV) talks about the importance of “platform shifts” for venture returns. These are moments where a new technology hits the marketplace and there’s a corresponding mass consumer adoption. When and where will that next shift occur? Maybe it’ll be in real estate.
I like the discussions at 10:00 and 13:50. The first deals with the importance of non-paid customer acquisition strategies for consumer products. Rather than relying on bought attention, you really need organic growth strategies, which is often an indication that people are passionate about your product. This is arguably more important when you’re fundamentally reliant on massive growth/scale, but whether we’re talking about software or a home, I still believe it’s paramount. Create things people love.
The second point is about commerce, Amazon, and how USV avoids investing in companies that are unlikely to ever win against Bezos. Kaden’s position is that Amazon’s advantage is and has been more executional than structural. They are simply really good at doing things better. But Amazon wins at logistics, speed, and value. They are not as focused on experience, entertainment, and discovery. And people still want that.
I’ll stop there. If you can’t see the podcast below, click here.
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I’ve been spending my mornings this weekend, listening, watching, and reading things. I’m always reading to find content for this blog, but I’ve allocating more time to consumption this weekend. So you might be noticing a slightly different varietal of posts over the past few days.
This morning it’s a podcast called Dorm Room Tycoon. It’s an interview with Andy Weissman, who is a partner with the New York venture capital firm, Union Square Ventures. The topic is “how we invest” and I’m enjoying the discussion.
Andy describes their firm as being boutique and thesis-driven. Meaning they have theses and they look for companies that dovetail with them. But in addition, he also labels their approach as “conversational investing.”
What does that mean?
It means they listen, watch, and read. They blog (all the partners write their own personal blog). They engage and discuss. They put themselves and the firm “out there”. And they don’t pretend to have all the answers or to be able to predict the future. Instead they let their conversations – both internal and with the broader market – help them make their investing decisions.
So why do I bring this up?
Because in my own small way, I am trying to do the same with real estate development, architecture, and city building. I write every day to learn and because I am infinitely curious. If you want to know what I’m thinking about, read this blog.
It’s for this reason that my favorite blog posts are the ones in which there’s lots of discussion in the comment section. It’s the market talking back, telling me whether I’m out to lunch or not. Ultimately, this idea of “conversational investing” is really about iterative decision making.
Here’s the podcast embed in case you would also like to listen:
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Regardless, the Dorm Room Tycoon is worth checking out. They have other interviews with people like Malcolm Gladwell and Simon Sinek.
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