| 1. | 0xdb8f...bcfd | 4.5M |
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| 1. | 0xdb8f...bcfd | 4.5M |
| 2. | jcandqc | 4.1M |
| 3. | baldinini | 941K |
| 4. | partytime | 939K |
| 5. | jimmyyyy | 918.6K |
| 6. | witcher01 | 898.8K |
| 7. | kualta.eth | 869.1K |
| 8. | Brandon Donnelly | 702.4K |
| 9. | ZORG | 487.3K |
| 10. | Ev Tchebotarev | 170.5K |
There is a common narrative that, when it comes time to start a family and have kids, you should probably consider moving to the suburbs. Sure, you'll have a painful commute, but you'll get more space for your money, and maybe you'll end up with better kids.
I don't know, obviously not everyone agrees with this. I certainly don't.
But it is something that commonly happens and, in many cities, it is now happening more often. Here is a map from the Centre for London showing the change in the proportion of households with at least one dependent child from 2001 to 2021:
A darker borough means that it lost households with at least one child. And a lighter borough means that it gained more kids. Why this is concerning is that it means the trendline is toward more, and not less, childless cities. Here's an excerpt from a recent FT article:
A future with dwindling numbers of children is one many cities, including San Francisco, Seattle and Washington DC, are grappling with. In Hong Kong, for every adult over 65 there are, to put it crudely, 0.7 children, and in Tokyo it is even fewer (0.5).
Of course, this is not a new phenomenon. And we know the main drivers:
Randal Cremer is one of several planned primary school closures and mergers in inner London triggered by low birth rates, families moving away because of expensive childcare, Brexit, and parents re-evaluating their lives during the pandemic. The biggest factor, says Riley, is that “housing is just becoming unaffordable”. Philip Glanville, mayor of Hackney, calls it “the acute affordability crisis”.
So how do we start to solve this? Here are a few ideas that we recently talked about on the blog, but it is by no means an exhaustive list. In my opinion, this is a problematic trend that deserves a lot more attention. Because cities are at their best when they work for everyone -- from the young to the old.
This is the message that the mayor of Miami Beach, Dan Gelber, delivered this week as it moved to sell $97.6 million of new municipal debt. The proceeds are intended to help the city fund more cultural projects and move away from its "old economic model" of selling Bellinis on Ocean Drive. But it is also a case of Miami Beach flexing its rising property values.
Residential property values across Miami Beach grew by about 125% over the past decade
Between 2019 and 2022, the number of "million-dollar zip codes" more than doubled (presumably these are just zip codes with median home prices above $1 million)
And from 2012 to 2022, the number of high-net-worth individuals in the city increased by about 75% (I wonder how many moved to the city versus just got richer while already living there)
All of this has been good for property tax revenues:
The Eglinton Crosstown line is going to open, here in Toronto, sometime next year -- I think. And I'm sure that it is going to be a massively beneficial addition to Toronto's transit network. But at the same time, we should be talking about this:
There is a common narrative that, when it comes time to start a family and have kids, you should probably consider moving to the suburbs. Sure, you'll have a painful commute, but you'll get more space for your money, and maybe you'll end up with better kids.
I don't know, obviously not everyone agrees with this. I certainly don't.
But it is something that commonly happens and, in many cities, it is now happening more often. Here is a map from the Centre for London showing the change in the proportion of households with at least one dependent child from 2001 to 2021:
A darker borough means that it lost households with at least one child. And a lighter borough means that it gained more kids. Why this is concerning is that it means the trendline is toward more, and not less, childless cities. Here's an excerpt from a recent FT article:
A future with dwindling numbers of children is one many cities, including San Francisco, Seattle and Washington DC, are grappling with. In Hong Kong, for every adult over 65 there are, to put it crudely, 0.7 children, and in Tokyo it is even fewer (0.5).
Of course, this is not a new phenomenon. And we know the main drivers:
Randal Cremer is one of several planned primary school closures and mergers in inner London triggered by low birth rates, families moving away because of expensive childcare, Brexit, and parents re-evaluating their lives during the pandemic. The biggest factor, says Riley, is that “housing is just becoming unaffordable”. Philip Glanville, mayor of Hackney, calls it “the acute affordability crisis”.
So how do we start to solve this? Here are a few ideas that we recently talked about on the blog, but it is by no means an exhaustive list. In my opinion, this is a problematic trend that deserves a lot more attention. Because cities are at their best when they work for everyone -- from the young to the old.
This is the message that the mayor of Miami Beach, Dan Gelber, delivered this week as it moved to sell $97.6 million of new municipal debt. The proceeds are intended to help the city fund more cultural projects and move away from its "old economic model" of selling Bellinis on Ocean Drive. But it is also a case of Miami Beach flexing its rising property values.
Residential property values across Miami Beach grew by about 125% over the past decade
Between 2019 and 2022, the number of "million-dollar zip codes" more than doubled (presumably these are just zip codes with median home prices above $1 million)
And from 2012 to 2022, the number of high-net-worth individuals in the city increased by about 75% (I wonder how many moved to the city versus just got richer while already living there)
All of this has been good for property tax revenues:
The Eglinton Crosstown line is going to open, here in Toronto, sometime next year -- I think. And I'm sure that it is going to be a massively beneficial addition to Toronto's transit network. But at the same time, we should be talking about this:
And now the city is leveraging them to invest in culture.
Chart: Bloomberg
Urban transit stations shouldn't look like this. It's a missed opportunity, both in terms of the foregone housing (and other uses) that could be on top of these stations and the additional value that could have been captured from these air rights. Transit is a crucial lever for land values and development overall, and so it's no wonder that many of the best transit authorities around the world think in terms of "rail + property".
So what happened here?
I don't know exactly. But I do know that nearly a decade ago I called up Metrolinx and said, "Hey, so I'm a developer who can build things. I see that you're building a number of exciting transit stations along Eglinton. Want me to build on top of them for you?" Now obviously Metrolinx wasn't going to be able to sole-source to Brandon, but regardless, I thought it should happen and I just hoped to be in the mix.
In 2015, things did start to happen. Avison Young, on behalf of Metrolinx, issued a request for proposal to developers for 4 sites/stations along the line. There were two at Keele Street, one at Weston Road, and one at Bathurst Street. And at the time, it was thought that these sites could generate somewhere between $14-22 million (speaking of reasonable).
I think it was also being viewed as a bit of a pilot. If things went well with these 4 initial sites, then this same approach was going to be rolled out across all suitable sites on the line. I'm not sure what happened with the RFP or the broader intent -- maybe some of you know -- but it clearly didn't pan out as planned.
That's too bad. But I suppose done is better than perfect. Plus, now we're building the Ontario Line and so we have another opportunity to get it right. And right means lots of density on top of stations -- both directly on top and all around it.
And now the city is leveraging them to invest in culture.
Chart: Bloomberg
Urban transit stations shouldn't look like this. It's a missed opportunity, both in terms of the foregone housing (and other uses) that could be on top of these stations and the additional value that could have been captured from these air rights. Transit is a crucial lever for land values and development overall, and so it's no wonder that many of the best transit authorities around the world think in terms of "rail + property".
So what happened here?
I don't know exactly. But I do know that nearly a decade ago I called up Metrolinx and said, "Hey, so I'm a developer who can build things. I see that you're building a number of exciting transit stations along Eglinton. Want me to build on top of them for you?" Now obviously Metrolinx wasn't going to be able to sole-source to Brandon, but regardless, I thought it should happen and I just hoped to be in the mix.
In 2015, things did start to happen. Avison Young, on behalf of Metrolinx, issued a request for proposal to developers for 4 sites/stations along the line. There were two at Keele Street, one at Weston Road, and one at Bathurst Street. And at the time, it was thought that these sites could generate somewhere between $14-22 million (speaking of reasonable).
I think it was also being viewed as a bit of a pilot. If things went well with these 4 initial sites, then this same approach was going to be rolled out across all suitable sites on the line. I'm not sure what happened with the RFP or the broader intent -- maybe some of you know -- but it clearly didn't pan out as planned.
That's too bad. But I suppose done is better than perfect. Plus, now we're building the Ontario Line and so we have another opportunity to get it right. And right means lots of density on top of stations -- both directly on top and all around it.
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