Category: Uncategorized

• The childless city debate

  There’s an interesting debate happening online right now. A recent article by Derek Thompson (of the Atlantic) made the claim that today’s urban renaissance is great for young college graduates, but not so good for kids.

  Here’s a quick synopsis:

  Cities have effectively traded away their children, swapping capital for kids. College graduates descend into cities, inhale fast-casual meals, emit the fumes of overwork, get washed, and bounce to smaller cities or the suburbs by the time their kids are old enough to spell.

  Raising a family in the city [New York City] is just too hard. And the same could be said of pretty much every other dense and expensive urban area in the country.

  Michael Lewyn (of the Touro Law Center) responded to this argument with a post titled “the myth of the childless city.” While it is true that the US fertility rate is at an all-time low, the numbers — at least some of them — suggest that cities aren’t all that childless:

  Furthermore, not all urban cores are doing poorly in retaining children. Washington, D.C. had just under 32,000 children under 5 in 2010, and has over 45,000 today. In Philadelphia, the number of children under 5 increased from just over 101,000 in 2010 to 104,152 in 2018. Even in San Francisco (which, according to The Atlantic article, “has the lowest share of children of any of the largest 100 cities in the U.S.”), the number of under-5 children increased from 35,203 in 2010 to 39,722 in 2018.

  What I would be curious to see is a more granular look at where children are being raised within specific cities, and how that may, or may not, be changing over time. City boundaries can be broad.

  2019.07.26

• My first dockless scooter ride

  

  I now know what all the fuss is about. Yesterday I rode a dockless (Lime) scooter for the first time. I took in lieu of an Uber in order to get to the Museum of Art, Architecture, and Technology (MAAT) on Lisbon’s waterfront.

  Here’s another photo from my ride:

  

  We don’t have these scooters in Toronto, but I understand they are imminent. And now that I’ve used one — and learned how shockingly fun they are — I can see why they are proliferating across so many cities.

  They’re a solution to the last mile problem, but they’re also fast enough (20 km/h) that they can be a substitute for other forms of urban mobility, as was the case for me yesterday. I can also see myself using one to get to the office when I would rather not sweat through my suit.

  Of course, there is the much talked about problem of scooters as urban litter. It’s a real thing and I am seeing that firsthand here in Lisbon. Because they are dockless, people leave them anywhere and everywhere. At the same time, part of what makes them so convenient is that, well, you can leave them anywhere and everywhere.

  

  I’m confident there’s a tidier solution that doesn’t involve fixed docking stations. Geofencing, perhaps? Cars are “dockless” and we’ve sort of figured that out. Many cities are already working on and experimenting with different solutions. Here’s an example from Tel Aviv. I have also noticed a natural clustering effect.

  I’m not sure how good of a business they will prove to be. The barriers to entry seem fairly low right now. You just need some Chinese scooters and an app, which is why I am noticing so many competing companies. But as the market matures, increased regulation could change this.

  We are going through a period of growing pains and it’s not particularly elegant. However, I believe we’ll get there. So I am looking forward to riding these scooters when they do finally land in Toronto.

  2019.07.16

• Out of office: Lisbon

  

  The out of office responder is on.

  I am currently on a multi-day stopover in Lisbon on my way to Malaga, Spain. One of my oldest friends (we went to elementary school together in Toronto) is getting married there this weekend. They chose Spain because that’s where they met (she is Parisian). They have an incredible love story and I’m looking forward to celebrating with them in a few days.

  The above photo was taken with my iPhone from Sky Bar.

  The green you see in the foreground is Av da Liberdade. Here is another photo from a different angle, where you can begin to see the water (Tagus). Its tree canopy is one of the most impressive that I have ever seen. Its grandeur (largely its width) is quite a contrast against the small and winding streets in the rest of Lisbon. And it may be one of the only level places in this exceptionally hilly town.

  I’m a big fan of Lisbon, already.

  2019.07.15

• The densest urban cells in America

  Garrett Dash Nelson recently published a study looking at urban density on a cell-by-cell basis for a number of US cities. Each “cell” is a 30 arc-second grid cell, but you can think of them as being approximately one square kilometer. The goal of the project was to better define urban density and do it in a more granular way. City averages don’t tell you a whole lot about how neighborhoods vary, and they can be skewed by the denominator you use. i.e. Where are you drawing the urban boundary?

  

  You can play around with his interactive study, here. Each city can be explored according to its 200 most dense cells. One interesting takeaway — though it is probably not all that surprising to this audience — is that New York City is really a unique place when it comes to American cities. If you look at the above chart (sourced from CityLab), you’ll see that most other US cities don’t come close to it in terms of urban density. New York’s 200th densest cell is still denser than the most dense cells of Boston, the Twin Cities, and of Dallas.

  The y-axis is the total population in each grid cell.

  2019.07.11

• Zoned for detached single-family housing

  We are in West Virginia now, where the only kind of housing that we have come across is — not surprisingly — low-density, detached, and single-family.

  Indeed, approximately 75% of the residential land across the entire US is estimated to be zoned for detached single-family homes. Using data from UrbanFootprint, the NY Times recently published a series of city maps outlining the percentage of land dedicated exclusively to this housing type.

  

  

  In some cases, such as on residential corner lots in Portland, duplexes are allowed. But generally speaking, the pink corresponds to detached single-family housing. About 15% of residential land in New York City is zoned for this, compared to about 94% of the land in San Jose.

  Interestingly enough, none of the residential land in Manhattan is zoned to accommodate detached single-family housing.

  2019.06.30

• Hello from Savannah

  

  I’m in Savannah, Georgia right now. See above (iPhone) photo taken from River Street. My dad and I are road tripping from West Palm Beach to Toronto in order to bring his car back to the city. So why not check out a few, new, cities along the way? I have my Fujifilm with me, but I won’t be posting any of those photos until I’m back in Toronto. Happy Canada Day weekend.

  2019.06.29

• 17 years of inventory in Miami

  Miami has historically had a volatile housing market because of its position as a second-home destination and because of its dependency on Latin American buyers. There is perhaps no other housing market in the US with the same kind of overall reliance on capital from abroad. This recent article by Candace Taylor in the WSJ is yet another reminder that we are once again in one of those cycles. Below are two excerpts that I found interesting. Note the stats, particularly the last bit in bold. It is also a reminder that when housing supply exceeds demand, usually something happens: prices come down.

  At the same time, new condos launched just as the owners of older units looked to cash out. There were 691 condo sales in Miami Beach in the first quarter of 2019, down 24 percent from 909 in the first quarter of 2015. During the same period, single family homes sales dropped to 81 from 117. The threat of climate change has had some impact on Miami home buyers’ decisions. A 2018 study showed that the value of single-family homes near sea level in Miami-Dade County rose more slowly than that of homes at higher elevations. But agents said a greater threat to the high-end market is inventory buildup.

  Meanwhile, a strong dollar incentivizes international buyers to sell the units they already own, even at below-market prices. The result is a glut of condos for sale, both new and resale. In December 2018, there were 3,663 condo listings for sale in the greater downtown Miami area—more than double the 1,591 for sale in December of 2013, according to an Integra Realty Resources report. Sunny Isles, where new buildings include the 53-story Jade Signature, the Porsche Design Tower and the Turnberry Ocean Club, is estimated to have about 17 years of inventory of condos priced at $5 million and up.

  2019.06.28

• Aman New York’s $180 million penthouse

  

  This morning I was reading about Aman’s new condo and hotel project in New York, which is planned for the 100-year-old Crown Building at 730 Fifth Avenue. It will have 83 hotel rooms and just 22 homes, and be the first urban condominium for the resort company.

  Owned by OKO Group, the hospitality company is mostly known for their “sleek, minimalist hotels in secluded, far-flung destinations,” according to the WSJ. Rooms go for upwards of USD 2,500 per night and they, supposedly, have a rabid customer base known as “Amanjunkies.”

  What’s interesting about this project is that (among other things) it’s a bet the Aman brand will translate to an urban context and drive above-market pricing. And it will do it at a time when the ultra high-net-worth segment of the market in NYC has been cooling because of a new “mansion tax” and probably other factors.

  The five-storey penthouse, which will be built into the building’s “crown,” is asking USD 180 million. If/when it sells, it will break the record for the most expensive home ever sold in the city on a square foot basis at $14,358 psf.

  If you subscribe to the WSJ, you can read the full story here. I find it valuable to see how projects position themselves.

  Rendering: Aman

  2019.06.16

• Toronto Raptors

  

  Photo: Frank Gunn/Associated Press

  2019.06.14

• Helium launches new decentralized wireless network

  

  San Francisco-based Helium launched a new wireless communication standard today that it is calling “LongFi.” It has 200x the range of WiFi and operates at 1/1000th the cost of a cellar modem. It is perfectly suited to IoT (Internet of Things) devices, such as the electric scooters that are proliferating across our cities. Helium’s goal is to build out the “world’s first peer-to-peer wireless network.”

  What’s potentially very exciting about this technology is that it represents decentralized network infrastructure. Anyone can install a Helium Hotspot in their home (to grow the network). And if you do that, you’ll be rewarded with tokens, which, in theory, will have some value going forward. Another way to think of a Helium Hotspot is as “the equivalent of bitcoin mining for network infrastructure.”

  

  Put yet another way, it’s a new kind of wireless protocol and an entirely new business model — which is often how startups end up beating entrenched incumbents. Here is a short description from Union Square Ventures (an investor in the company) on how the Helium network will work:

  Hotspots, the backbone of the Helium network, can be deployed by anyone, anywhere, simply by plugging into an existing router.  The Helium network will be assembled, over time, by a broad community of volunteers, civic organizations, commercial partners, and ideally a new class of entrepreneurs building out connectivity in new cities and towns.

  Economic activity in the Helium network is coordinated through a new type of blockchain that uses “proof of coverage” (proving that a Hotspot is actually located in physical space) to secure the network and incentivize deployment where it is needed most.  We believe that the Helium network has the potential to become one of the most decentralized blockchain networks in existence, due to physical location as the underpinning of the economic and security model.

  This is a good example of the potential of the blockchain technology. We are still waiting for mainstream consumer applications to be built on top of it, but many people within the industry believe we’re only a few years out from that. I’m going to try out a Helium Hotspot as soon as they’re available in Toronto.

  Images: Helium

  2019.06.12