Category: Uncategorized

• The new AirTags and Apple’s global mesh network

  Apple recently released a new tracking device called AirTag. It is similar to the small Tile devices that have been in circulation for many years in that they help you find misplaced items like your keys or a bag. They locate your stuff and work like this. I pre-ordered a 4-pack of them last month but they aren’t scheduled to arrive until June. Maybe it’s because I got custom engravings on the back of them.

  Perhaps the most obvious use case for these new AirTags is to place one inside of your checked bag(s) when you travel. There’s nothing worse than an airline losing your luggage and you not knowing where it is. So I can see myself using one of these every time I travel. Hopefully that will be very soon.

  But the other really interesting thing about these devices is that they run on Apple’s “Find My” network, which is the same network that allows you to find your other iOS devices if you happen to misplace them. This is essentially a decentralized mesh network that is powered by all of Apple’s devices around the world, as opposed to some big telco network.

  According to Wikipedia, there is believed to be about 1 billion Apple devices around the world that are capable of transmitting anonymous signals. Your phone may be doing it right now. What this means is that these new AirTags are being located not by way of a cell network, but by way of some dude with an iPhone standing nearby to your AirTag.

  Why I find this so interesting is that the internet has way of decentralizing things and also cutting out intermediaries. We’ve seen that happen with travel agents and we are now seeing it take place with cryptocurrencies and blockchains. These new AirTags feels like a microcosm of that trend. They are running on a giant global network that has been created one device at a time.

  2021.05.08

• One big tower split into two

  The OMA-designed Greenpoint Landing Towers in northern Brooklyn recently topped out. Photos and announcement over here. If you aren’t familiar with the project, it’s very OMA. What I mean by that is that there’s a kind of simple rationality to it. (I just made up this architecture speak.) Big bold moves with a certain logic behind it. Here’s the story and thinking behind Greenpoint Landing:

  

  Supposedly this project is in a part of Brooklyn that stipulates a maximum tower floor plate size of 11,000 square feet. Following this rule, you get a two-tower design that looks something like image number one in the top left hand corner of the above diagram. The resulting tower separation would be 40 feet, or just over 12 meters. (Are you seeing these numbers, Toronto?)

  What OMA did was taper one tower (diagram image #2) and then create an inverted ziggurat form for the second tower (diagram image #3). The effect is two towers that look like they were almost one giant tower that had been simply pulled apart. The resulting tower separation distance in this final scenario is 60 feet, or just over 18 meters.

  I am assuming that there’s some area loss in this design because of the increased tower separation, though maybe the larger podium makes it up. Either way, from what I can tell, there are two main benefits to this design: (1) you get a tower with stepbacks facing the water (so places for outdoor spaces) and (2) it breaks up the visual monotony of two equally extruded towers.

  If any of you are more familiar with this project, I would welcome your thoughts in the comment section below.

  Image: OMA

  2021.05.06

• More drivers, more supply

  

  This week, Lyft announced that it is going to be selling its autonomous vehicle division to Toyota for some $550 million. (Apparently $200 million of this will be paid upfront, with the remaining $350 million paid out over a five year period.) This is notable because Uber did the exact same thing last year when it sold its autonomous vehicle business to Aurora (which happens to be working with Toyota), and because the reasons for selling seem clear: getting to full autonomy is going to cost a bunch more money and both Uber and Lyft are determined to reach profitability sooner rather than later.

  The other thing that you might be able to glean from these announcements is that neither company seemingly feels like they need to fully own/control the autonomous piece. Presumably the thinking is that someone else can spend the money on developing full autonomy and they’ll just stick to building out their ride-hailing network. Once we have autonomous taxis, they’ll need a network to run on anyway, right? I guess. But wouldn’t this dramatically undermine the network effects of Uber and Lyft?

  If you go back to Uber’s S-1, there was a diagram that explained Uber’s “liquidity network effect.” See above. It starts with more drivers and more supply (1), because more cars driving around means that wait times and fares are lower (2) and so more people are likely to use Uber (3). Network size matters. But if you no longer have drivers — only autonomous vehicles — isn’t it relatively easy to add more supply to any network? I suppose this partially depends on how the ownership structure will end up working for these autonomous taxis. Still, I wonder about the barriers to entry under this scenario.

  2021.05.04

• NFTs, luxury brands, and reclaiming ownership

  Here is an interesting interview discussion about NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and the world of luxury brands. It’s a conversation between Benoit Pagotto, cofounder of the NFT brand RTFKT Studios, and Ian Rogers, who is Chief Experience Officer at the blockchain startup Ledger (he was previously the Chief Digital Officer at LVMH). Below is an excerpt that stood out to me. It starts to speak to the potential of NFTs for fashion/luxury brands. Rogers also makes an interesting comparison to the music industry in that things are playing out very differently today compared to what happened back in the late 90s.

  Benoit is proving that he can basically sell a $4,900 digital good alongside a $100 physical good. Now imagine when the lightbulb goes off in Adidas’s head, that the item on adidas.com comes with a digital collectible and the item at “retailer dot com” does not. It fits with their focus way more than the internet did. The internet didn’t fit in any incumbent’s focus. It was the opposite. It was like, “Oh my God, this threatens our monopoly in some way,” right? For the music business, it was, “Wait a minute, we want to sell a $17 compact disc, not a $1 digital file.” They got dragged into that world. 

  On a related note, it was recently announced that model Emily Ratajkowski has made an NFT containing a photograph of herself standing in front of a Richard Prince print that had previously appropriated one of her photos. (Richard Prince’s artwork is known for appropriation.) So this is an exceptionally neat idea. Here she is using an NFT to try and take back some control. Basically: You took my photo and then profited from it. So now I’m going to stand in front of that image, take a new photo, and then reclaim some ownership using the blockchain. Is this the future?

  2021.04.27

• The price of lumber is up about 193%

  

  Many of you are probably acutely aware that the cost of lumber has risen dramatically over the last year. Builders are building and many people seem interested in renovating their home right now — so demand is outstripping supply. But here is a chart from Fortune, with data from Random Lengths, showing you just how wild things have gotten. Back in April 2020, lumber was going for about $358 per thousand board feet, according to this data. As of the beginning of this month, the number had jumped to $1,048, which represents an all-time high and a 193% year-over-year increase. Who knows where pricing will go next, but the National Association of Home Builders is estimating that current pricing has added about $24,000 to the price of a typical new single-family home in the US.

  Image: Fortune

  2021.04.19

• How the world changed over the last 37 years

  Google Earth has a feature called Timelapse that combines millions of different satellite images to show you how the world has changed over the last 37 years — sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. It’s a feature that’s been out for a few years, but they just made it available in 3D. Some of you may have also missed the feature if you don’t normally use Google Earth. So here’s an overly wondrous video (also embedded above) showing off the new feature, and here is a dedicated site that allows you to quickly try out Timelapse in 2D. Dubai’s “coastal expansion” is one of the places you can quickly land on and its growth over the last few decades is always mind boggling to see. But of course, there are also many other important Timelapses that should be viewed. A number of them speak to our environmental impacts on the world.

  2021.04.14

• Second home and investor mortgage applications accounted for 14.1% of all applications in February

  

  As a follow-up to my recent post about the rise of the second home, here is a chart (via the WSJ) showing second home and investor mortgage applications as a share of all applications in the US. In February of this year (2021), second home and investment properties accounted for 14.1% of all applications. This is a record number going back to January 2010.

  What’s also interesting about this chart is that, but for COVID, it shows a general decline over the last decade. I’m not sure what the split is between vacation and investment properties, but can we conclude that pre-COVID Americans were becoming less interested or perhaps less able to own a second home? And could the reason be that instead of owning a second home, more people simply started relocating permanently?

  There is also an obvious seasonality to these applications. Each of the above valleys tend to correspond to the spring and summer months. It’s almost as if every fall/winter we start thinking to ourselves, “Right, winter. Let’s look for a place somewhere else.” Is it that, or are there other forces at work here?

  2021.04.01

• The Ideal City

  

  Gestalten and SPACE10 have a new book out that I think many of you may want to add to your library. It’s called The Ideal City, and it’s all about what’s next when it comes to cities. Here’s a short excerpt from the publisher:

  Urban life is humankind’s biggest experiment to date, our cities are constantly evolving and adapting to climate and economy. The cities we have today are not necessarily the ones we need, but big and small innovation is rethinking visions of urbanization. Together with pioneering research and design lab SPACE10, we present future-orientated design which enhances quality of life and makes our urban spaces more vibrant.

  As technology and urban life edge ever closer, The Ideal City explores the ambitious actions and initiatives being brought to life across the globe to meet tomorrow’s demand in clever, forwarding-thinking ways. From pedestrian infrastructure to housing, the book uncovers what is being discussed at the forefront of urbanism through expert essays and profiles.

  Image: Gestalten

  2021.03.11

• Who should win the 2021 Pritzker Prize?

  

  The winner of the 2021 Pritzker Prize — which is often considered to be the highest honor in the world of architecture — is expected to be announced sometime in “early March.” In anticipation of that, ArchDaily is asking its readers to opine on who they think should win the prize. This is something they usually do each year. I just casted my vote (for someone who happens to be pictured above). If you’d like to do the same, click here. And if you’d like to see who the jury members are for this year, go here.

  Image: ArchDaily

  2021.03.07

• What will be the new New York City?

  Peggy Noonan argues, in this recent WSJ article, that the world has changed forever. A human habit was broken during this pandemic and city life, including office life, will never be the same in New York City. She qualifies this by saying that some people will return to offices, potentially in significant numbers. (People like being around other people.) But that things will never be what they once were. We’ve learned that we can decentralize and still get work done.

  As many of you know, I am bullish on cities and I am bullish on offices. So I found myself disagreeing with many of her arguments. But Peggy does raise some valid concerns: How are cities going to pay for what just happened over the last 12 months? According to the Partnership for New York City, the city lost about 500,000 private-sector jobs since March 2020. About 300,000 residents from high-income neighborhoods also filed for a “change of the address” during this time period.

  Given that the top 5% in New York represent about 62% of the state’s income tax base, the movement of people to low-tax states (and warmer places) is something to watch. It’s also a trend that existed well before this pandemic.

  At the same time, I’m not necessarily convinced that (at least some of) these fleeing rich people aren’t coming back. I was speaking with a real estate agent over the weekend who is based in a popular US resort/recreation market and while he told me that, yes, he’s seeing a massive influx of people from expensive coastal markets, these people are largely choosing to rent. They want to take the lifestyle for a test drive and they are also waiting to see what happens with the world once city life returns.

  There will be real financial challenges coming out of this. But as I’ve said time and time before, cities are remarkably resilient. And as Jack Shafer argued in this recent article about “memorializing the pandemic,” humans tend to have short memories, especially when it comes to bad things. The Spanish Flu has been regarded by many as a forgotten pandemic. We moved on and the same will happen this time around.

  2021.02.27