Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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  • A mapping of restaurant “chaininess”

    This is an interesting study by Clio Andries (assistant professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology) and Xiaofan Laing (city planning graduate student). It looks at restaurant “chaininess” across the United States.

    To do this, they mapped over 800,000 restaurants and looked for, among other things, restaurants with the same name. If the same restaurant name shows up in multiple locations, it is considered to be a chain.

    Looking at the above snapshot of San Francisco, a yellow dot represents what is thought to be an independent restaurant and a dark purple/maroon dot represents a chain.

    San Francisco has a very high percentage of independent restaurants. In their study, the city receives a chainess score of 28, compared to the national average of 1,247. (Some cities in the southeastern US are in the 1,900s).

    One of the interesting takeaways from this study is that there appears to be a correlation between chaininess and built form. Generally speaking, the study revealed that auto-centric communities tend to have more chain restaurants, versus more independent restaurants in pedestrian-centric communities.

    This is perhaps intuitive if you’ve ever driven and traveled across the US, but it is interesting to consider what is actually leading to this food and beverage outcome. Density certainly plays a role.

  • The next wave of computing innovation

    Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) has just launched a new site called Future. It is a site for “understanding the future, how tech shapes it, and how we build it.” I just subscribed to it and, if you’d like to do the same, click here. At the same time, the company also just announced their latest crypto fund (a $2.2 billion fund). Here’s an excerpt from the release:

    We believe that the next wave of computing innovation will be driven by crypto. We are radically optimistic about crypto’s potential to restore trust and enable new kinds of governance where communities collectively make important decisions about how networks evolve, what behaviors are permitted, and how economic benefits are distributed. 

    I’ve been reading a lot more about crypto over the last few months (which is something that I mentioned I was doing here.) I am not in this world day-to-day, but I am now fully convinced that we are in the very early innings of a profound shift. So pretty soon this is going to become my day-to-day, whether I like it or not.

  • Unicorns overwhelmingly originate in big cities

    In the world of startups, a unicorn is used to refer to a company with a market cap greater than $1 billion. A decacorn, the latest benchmark, is what it sounds like in that it’s a company with a market cap greater than $10 billion.

    While unicorn status is just one measure, valuations are an important yardstick for cities and countries. How many big new companies are you creating? That is a critical question because, presumably, these big new companies are going to create a bunch of new jobs and generate a lot of new wealth for people.

    This recent blog post by Elad Gil is a great summary of what’s happening in the world from this perspective. The raw data is also available if you’d like to dig deeper.

    Here are the number of new unicorns since October 2020 by city:

    Silicon Valley, not surprisingly, continues to dominate, followed by New York.

    Here is a breakdown for the United States as a whole:

    Miami and Austin have been in the news a lot over the past year and their startup scenes may very well be on the rise relative to other US cities. But it’s interesting to see other smaller cities on this list, like Salt Lake City, who are, at least right now, holding their own.

    I found this last set of two charts particularly interesting:

    They are showing unicorn count (first) and unicorn market cap (second) as a percentage of their respective countries. For example, Silicon Valley is sitting at about 47% and 51%, respectively. So about half of all unicorns in the US have originated from this geography.

    But for most other cities on this list, the percentage is much higher and, in many cases, it is 100%. (Silicon Valley is perhaps relatively low because the US has lots of other big and important cities.) For me, this shows the continued dominance of cities. If you’re building the next great unicorn or decacorn, the data tells us that you’re probably doing it in a big city somewhere. And I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

  • The Surfside tragedy

    What happened in Surfside, Florida this week with the partial collapse of a 12 storey building is a horrible tragedy. My heart goes out to everybody who has been affected. I can’t imagine how this must feel. The New York Times is reporting that some 159 people are still unaccounted for, as of last Friday night. At least 4 people have been killed in the incident.

    The focus right now is on saving as many human lives as possible. Without a doubt, that is priority number one. But this situation also raises a critically important question: How the hell could this happen in North America? When I saw the terrible news this week, I immediately flipped the article to one of our structural engineers with a note asking basically this.

    As many of you know, buildings are typically designed and built with lots of structural redundancies. This is so that these sorts of tragedies can be avoided. It is too early to know exactly what happened here, but there are going to be questions around the building’s original design and construction, its maintenance program (saltwater is awful for buildings), and much more.

    I am sure that all of this will come out in the fullness of time. And it is important that it does.

  • Releasing the shackles on mid-rise development

    I love mid-rise buildings. I think they are an incredibly livable scale of housing, which is why I am looking forward to moving into Junction House when we begin occupancies next year. But as we have talked about many times before on the blog, the mid-rise economics are challenging in this city, which is why we also don’t have any other Avenue-style mid-rise projects in the pipeline right now. We haven’t been able to find land where the math works.

    Here are two excerpts from a recent Globe and Mail article — titled “Toronto’s mix of planning rules limits growth of mid-rise housing” — that speaks to this dynamic:

    For well over two decades, Toronto’s official plan has called for transit-oriented intensification along the “Avenues,” much of it expected in the form of mid-rise apartments that can be approved “as of right” – meaning without zoning or official plan appeals. Such buildings are often seen as more livable and human scale than 50- or 60-storey towers.

    Yet, ironically, the highly prescriptive Mid-Rise Guidelines – combined with skyrocketing land, labour and building costs, as well as timelines that can run to six years for a mid-sized building – have turned these projects into pyramid-shaped unicorns, often filled with deep, dark and narrow units dubbed “bowling alleys.”

    “The economics are so frail,” says architect Dermot Sweeny, founding principal of Sweeny & Co., who describes the angular plane requirements as “a massive cost” because they make the structure more complicated and expensive while reducing the amount of leasable or saleable floor space.

    The critiques extend beyond the industry. Professor of architecture Richard Sommer, former dean of the John H. Daniels Faculty of Landscape, Architecture and Design at the University of Toronto, describes the controls in the guidelines as “very crude.” “They’re built around a mindset of deference to low-rise communities.”

    My opinion is that, at a minimum, we need to revisit the “guidelines” that govern these kinds of projects and we need to make this scale of development “as-of-right.” In the same way that laneway suites work, where you simply apply for a building permit, we need to make it just as easy for mid-rise housing. There just too many barriers and too many opportunities for something to come up that could hold up the entire project for months or years.

    Building at a variety of scales is important for the fabric and vitality of our cities. Unfortunately, I have all but made up my mind that small doesn’t work unless it’s as-of-right. I would love to build another laneway house and I fully expect that to happen at some point in the near future. But I just can’t seem to get my head around another mid-rise building right now. I wish that wasn’t the case. And it’s certainly not because of a lack of effort.

  • One Delisle is a BILD Awards finalist for Project of the Year

    BILD just announced its finalists for the 2021 BILD Awards.

    This is probably the most noteworthy awards program in the development industry here in the Greater Toronto Area. And so I am pretty excited to announce that One Delisle is a finalist for the following awards:

    • Project of the Year, Mid/High-Rise (Pinnacle Award)
    • People’s Choice Award (Voting Opens August 2021)
    • Best Suite Design, Large — West Penthouse Residence
    • Best Innovative Suite Design – Sky Collection Suite

    The full list can be found over here (PDF). All of the finalists’ work is also going to be posted on the BILD Awards website before the end of this week.

    The actual winners will be announced this fall at the Awards Gala on October 7, 2021. I’m not sure if it has been decided yet whether it will be in person or online, but we all know that in person would be much better. Let’s hope that will be the case.

    Given the good news, our office decided that it was probably a good idea to make a few margaritas this evening:

    Whatever the end result, we are thrilled to be a finalist.

    We are also a past recipient of the “Best Innovative Suite Design” award, which was given to our House Collection of suites at Junction House. So I guess we like working our floor plans.

    Congratulations to the full One Delisle team. This is well deserved.

  • Luminar announces vision for autonomous vehicle future

    Luminar Technologies, which is an autonomous vehicle technology company that I have written about before, just hosted its first ever “Studio Day” in New York City this week. And at the event they announced two new technologies.

    The first is called Iris, which is a small lidar device that is intended to be integrated into regular consumer production vehicles — on the roof just above the windshield. And supposedly the company is on track to have these into full production and available to their OEM partners by the end of next year (2022).

    The second technology is something that they are calling Blade, which is a lidar system that can offer a 360 degree field of vision and is intended for use in robo-taxis, trucks, and other consumer vehicles. It’s called Blade because it’s kind of like a blade that wraps around the tops of these vehicles.

    We’ve been talking about autonomous vehicles for what seems like a long time. And it is now clear that this is not an easy problem to solve. But from what I have read, lidar seems like the promising technology and something that will become necessary for full autonomy. So I am now long $LAZR. Whether this is the right move is still to be determined.

    The full Studio Day video is embedded at the top of this post. If you’re reading via email subscription and can’t see it, click here.

    I liked the bit (just after the 9 minute mark) about how headlights were first introduced and how it took some time before they were fully absorbed and integrated into the design of cars. Today they are now a signature design element for most car brands. It’s a clever parallel for what Luminar is trying to do with Iris and Blade.

  • A story about oranges

    A friend of mine circulated this tweet storm over the weekend. It is an explanation of how NYC’s housing market works using the example of oranges. The author ends by saying that, “it is a parody and an exaggeration, but I promise you it’s not much of one.”

    The crux of this story about oranges is that if you don’t deliver enough to meet market demand, you’re going to invariably run into a problem of affordability. If people really want oranges, they are going to bid up the price of whatever oranges they can get their hands on. The same is true for housing.

    But there are, of course, some obvious differences between homes and oranges. People don’t live in oranges. And I would imagine that there are other ways to get your daily recommended intake of vitamin C.

    As far as I know, people also don’t buy oranges with the hope that they can derive a rental income stream and/or that they will be worth more tomorrow. And so I’m sure that many of you will be quick to point out that it is perhaps the speculative nature of housing that makes it different from most oranges.

    Still, there’s no denying that, in most cities around the world, we do a lot to make it exceedingly difficult to build new housing. We constrain supply — such that we perpetually underserve the market — and then we wonder why prices continue to rise.

    Disagree with this take? Let me know in the comment section below.

  • Brazilian architect Paulo Mendes da Rocha dies at 92

    “The city has to be for everybody, not just for the very few.” –Paulo Mendes da Rocha

    Brazilian architect, Paulo Mendes da Rocha, died this past weekend. He was 92. Though he hadn’t really completed many buildings outside of his home country, his work and his contributions to São Paulo are widely celebrated. Some of his accolades include the Mies van der Rohe Prize for Latin American Architecture (2000), the Pritzker Prize (2006), the Venice Biennale Golden Lion for Lifetime Achievement (2016), and the Royal Institute of British Architect’s Royal Gold Medal for Architecture (2017). I’ve always had a soft spot for Brazilian modernism. They were early adopters of European modernism and ultimately made it their own. I don’t think Mendes da Rocha would necessarily appreciate this classification, but as I’ve mentioned here before, modernism, and more particularly brutalism, took on very different qualities in Latin America. Exposed concrete just seems to hit differently in a tropical setting. Here and here are some examples of his more famous projects.

    Photo by Leonardo Finotti via Dezeen

  • An international travel boom is coming

    I was reading up on vaccine passports this morning. What is clear is that countries are scrambling to figure this out right now, though I understand Israel is already up and running, as is South Korea, which has a system built on top of the blockchain. (This feels like a great use case for the technology.)

    What is also clear (see above charts) is that many countries are highly motivated to figure this out sooner rather than later. The geographies that are weighted toward tourism dollars don’t want to miss out on yet another summer travel season. And given how dominant Europe is in terms of international arrivals, I suspect that they might end up leading the way in terms of rolling out some form of internationally accepted passport system. I would imagine that true universality is going to be a challenge though.

    Domestic travel in the US has already bounced back in a significant way. Looking at TSA screenings for the first half of this month (May 2021), travel right now is at about 70% of 2019 volumes. This is in comparison to just under 10% last year (May 2020). Once international travel gets streamlined in the second half of this year, I’m sure the same thing will happen on that front.

    One of my predictions at the beginning of this year was that we would see an explosion in global travel, probably in the second half of the year. I stand by that view. Many/most of us have spent the last year in various forms of lockdown and many/most of us have spent the last year with almost no work-life balance (a symptom of WFH).

    According to some recent data from home website Zillow, the company saw traffic skyrocket in 2020 from 1.5 billion visits to 9.6 billion visits (compared to the year prior). This is people looking at homes, and, in many cases, looking at homes that are more expensive than what they currently own. Real estate websites, you could argue, became a form of escapism last year, which is something that travel is normally pretty good at.

    People are restless and ready to unplug. I reckon that’s going to happen in a meaningful way later this year.

    Charts: Financial Times