I have been through two major downturns in my real estate career. The first was the 2007-2008 financial crisis. And the second is what's happening right now. Right before the first one, I was working for a small real estate developer/consultancy in Dublin and, let me tell you, it was an exuberant time. Ireland was at what ended up being the tale end of its "Celtic Tiger" and everything was possible.

One of the projects I was working on was the proposed U2 Tower at the mouth of the River Liffey in the Docklands area. We were running the international design competition to select an architect and everyone from Foster and Partners to Zaha Hadid was participating. It was going to be the tallest tower on the island of Ireland and in the penthouse was going to be a recording studio for the rock band U2.

But then, the great financial crisis happened and the tower got cancelled. By then, I had returned from the US (where I was finishing grad school) to work in Toronto. The writing was starting to be on the wall, but I managed to get a summer internship for a developer. By fall, shit had hit the fan and they reneged on my full-time offer, citing that the market was just too bad.

In reality, though, things were much worse in the US. I vividly remember developers claiming that it would take decades for development to return to feasibility. That's how bad things felt. In hindsight, this was pivotal timing for me for two reasons. One, it taught me early on in my career just how bad things can get in real estate, and I try to always remember that. And two, it forced me out of the US after graduation.

I had initially planned to stay and work there for a few years, but there were simply no real estate jobs and, if there was one, they weren't going to hire a Canadian with a background in architecture. Who knows where I would have ended up had I stayed. Despite it being my plan, it's possible I may have never returned to Toronto.

During this period, I remember thinking to myself that development is super risky, it shuts off periodically, and so it's a good idea to also own long-term assets with long-term leases, like office buildings. And after returning to Toronto, I ultimately went to work for a company that did both development and that owned office buildings, among other commercial assets.

This seemed like a reasonable approach up until 2020, which is of course when office buildings were negatively impacted by the pandemic. But I don't know how anyone could have predicted this. It was truly a black swan event that had far reaching implications on real estate beyond just office assets.

But here's the thing: I feel lucky with the timing I've had. These are the best times to be starting something. During the first cycle, I was just starting my real estate career and it taught me things. And now, during this current downturn, I'm focused on growing Globizen. It's hard to imagine a better time to find opportunities that the rest of the market may be overlooking or simply can't execute on.

In 2007, I spent the summer working in Dublin, Ireland for a boutique real estate consulting firm called Urban Capital. (For those of you who are from Toronto and know the industry, there’s no connection between the Urban Capital in Dublin and the Urban Capital in Toronto.)

At the time, they were working with a number of government agencies on the development of masterplanned communities, as well as on specific development projects. Real estate was booming and everyone wanted to be a part of it – including the band U2.

But as you all know, the following year (2008) wasn’t kind to the real estate industry and, in particular, to Ireland. That year the country fell into recession for the first time since the 1980s and became labeled as one of the “PIGS.”

I really wish I had started this blog by that point because it would be interesting to look back today on my posts from that summer and see how I was thinking about the Dublin real estate market. I remember having many Guinness-fueled discussions about whether the bull market could continue.

In any event, the Irish economy is coming back.

This year GDP is expected to grow by 5.4%, which would make it the fastest growing economy in Europe. National debt is also falling. At the end of 2013 it stood at €215 billion or about 123% of GDP. And at the end of 2014 it had fallen to €203 billion or about 109% of GDP. The national debt is expected to fall below 100% of GDP by 2018.

At the same time, Ireland also got permission to pay off its bailout loans early. That’s a good sign.

I’m thinking and reading about all of this today because I was looking through my photo collection this morning and I stumbled upon a folder titled “Dublin 2007.” The photo at the top of this post was the terrace that I had outside of my apartment in the Docklands area. I don’t think I used it once that summer. 

And here’s a photo of my bedroom. It must have been the curtains that sold me on the apartment.

I had a great time in Dublin that summer. It’s a fun and young city and I remember being incredibly impressed by the quality of city building that was going on. I’m sure that wasn’t lost in the Great Recession.