The great housing debate continues: Are we building enough housing, or are we not?
Right now the media is talking about a new report from the Union of B.C. Municipalities, which is claiming that cities in British Columbia are actually building enough housing to keep pace with population demand.
Between 2016 and 2021, the province's population grew by 7.6% and the number of new dwellings grew by 7.2%, according to the report. So supply appears to be lining up with demand.
One problem with this robust analysis is that many people, including the Housing Minister, don't agree. Here's an excerpt from the Globe and Mail:
“The overly naive analysis comparing housing to population growth to declare the adequacy of our housing supply fails to understand that housing and population growth are intimately related,” said statistics analyst Jens von Bergmann, a regular decoder of housing statistics for Vancouver and Canada. “It’s a slap in the face of those who have been pushed out, or those who failed to move here, because of the unavailability of housing.”
The great housing debate continues: Are we building enough housing, or are we not?
Right now the media is talking about a new report from the Union of B.C. Municipalities, which is claiming that cities in British Columbia are actually building enough housing to keep pace with population demand.
Between 2016 and 2021, the province's population grew by 7.6% and the number of new dwellings grew by 7.2%, according to the report. So supply appears to be lining up with demand.
One problem with this robust analysis is that many people, including the Housing Minister, don't agree. Here's an excerpt from the Globe and Mail:
“The overly naive analysis comparing housing to population growth to declare the adequacy of our housing supply fails to understand that housing and population growth are intimately related,” said statistics analyst Jens von Bergmann, a regular decoder of housing statistics for Vancouver and Canada. “It’s a slap in the face of those who have been pushed out, or those who failed to move here, because of the unavailability of housing.”
And on a related note, here is a recent piece by Shawn Micallef (Toronto Star) talking about why the left can't get Toronto's housing right.
“If everyone is going left, look right." -Sam Zell
The right time to buy things is usually when other's aren't, which is why I've felt that this year was a great time to buy a centrally located condo. Cities aren't going anywhere. This isn't their first pandemic. Downtown demand will return as soon as urban life returns and the majority of people are back in their offices next year.
I've also been predicting that the run-up in single-family home prices that we have seen this past year here in Toronto will eventually lead to a surge in demand for condos (and perhaps even for larger suites). It's a question of relative affordability. And so it was interesting to see Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation predicting the same thing for 2021 in this recent Toronto Star article.
Hildebrand thinks the soaring prices of single-family homes will also push more buyers back to the condo market.
As of November, the average price gap between condos and detached houses was $596,000. The gap between a condo and a semi-detached or townhome was about $217,000. Both of those were at their second-highest levels since the market peaked in late 2016-early 2017, he said.
“This could really start to swing demand towards condos in the second half of the year,” said Hildebrand.
Realosophy data shows condo sales were already up year over year prior to the holidays — 23 per cent the first week of December, 31 per cent the second week and 72 per cent the week of Dec. 14. That means 727 condos sold that week, compared to 418 in the same week last year.
“If everyone is going left, look right." -Sam Zell
The right time to buy things is usually when other's aren't, which is why I've felt that this year was a great time to buy a centrally located condo. Cities aren't going anywhere. This isn't their first pandemic. Downtown demand will return as soon as urban life returns and the majority of people are back in their offices next year.
I've also been predicting that the run-up in single-family home prices that we have seen this past year here in Toronto will eventually lead to a surge in demand for condos (and perhaps even for larger suites). It's a question of relative affordability. And so it was interesting to see Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation predicting the same thing for 2021 in this recent Toronto Star article.
Hildebrand thinks the soaring prices of single-family homes will also push more buyers back to the condo market.
As of November, the average price gap between condos and detached houses was $596,000. The gap between a condo and a semi-detached or townhome was about $217,000. Both of those were at their second-highest levels since the market peaked in late 2016-early 2017, he said.
“This could really start to swing demand towards condos in the second half of the year,” said Hildebrand.
Realosophy data shows condo sales were already up year over year prior to the holidays — 23 per cent the first week of December, 31 per cent the second week and 72 per cent the week of Dec. 14. That means 727 condos sold that week, compared to 418 in the same week last year.
One of the debates that is happening in cities all around the world right now is about whether or not it makes sense to redistribute public space in order to help with current social distancing measures. We are all being told to stay at home as much as possible, but as we venture out for food and/or sanity walks, many have started noticing that a lot of our sidewalks are in fact too small if you're trying to stay 2m away from other humans. So with vehicular traffic way down, the question becomes: Should we start borrowing some of that space for pedestrians?
Here in Toronto the official position is no. Closing down streets and lanes to car traffic is usually referred to as creating an "open street." And the intent of these open streets is typically to bring people together for public life, which, of course, is the exact opposite of what we're trying to do right now. What this implies, however, is that there's a belief that additional space for pedestrians would induce demand, similar to what is believed to happen when you add additional lanes on a highway.
Lewis Mumford probably had it best when he allegedly said, "Adding highway lanes to deal with traffic congestion is like loosening your belt to cure obesity." So on the one hand, if you believe that more lanes doesn't solve traffic congestion, you might also be inclined to believe that more and bigger sidewalks isn't going to dampen the anxiety we currently feel when other humans get anywhere near us. The additional space would simply get filled with more bodies.
But maybe you could argue that this is a little bit of a different situation. We're in a global pandemic for God's sake and most of us have the better sense to stay home unless it's absolutely necessary. Perhaps in this case, demand would not increase and the greater supply would simply better serve the demand that is already there. Perhaps. I don't have a strong stance on this, but I'm fairly certain that technology could help with this decision.
One of the debates that is happening in cities all around the world right now is about whether or not it makes sense to redistribute public space in order to help with current social distancing measures. We are all being told to stay at home as much as possible, but as we venture out for food and/or sanity walks, many have started noticing that a lot of our sidewalks are in fact too small if you're trying to stay 2m away from other humans. So with vehicular traffic way down, the question becomes: Should we start borrowing some of that space for pedestrians?
Here in Toronto the official position is no. Closing down streets and lanes to car traffic is usually referred to as creating an "open street." And the intent of these open streets is typically to bring people together for public life, which, of course, is the exact opposite of what we're trying to do right now. What this implies, however, is that there's a belief that additional space for pedestrians would induce demand, similar to what is believed to happen when you add additional lanes on a highway.
Lewis Mumford probably had it best when he allegedly said, "Adding highway lanes to deal with traffic congestion is like loosening your belt to cure obesity." So on the one hand, if you believe that more lanes doesn't solve traffic congestion, you might also be inclined to believe that more and bigger sidewalks isn't going to dampen the anxiety we currently feel when other humans get anywhere near us. The additional space would simply get filled with more bodies.
But maybe you could argue that this is a little bit of a different situation. We're in a global pandemic for God's sake and most of us have the better sense to stay home unless it's absolutely necessary. Perhaps in this case, demand would not increase and the greater supply would simply better serve the demand that is already there. Perhaps. I don't have a strong stance on this, but I'm fairly certain that technology could help with this decision.
