Over the weekend, we spoke about how the "GTA condo market is in a state of economic lockdown." What this generally means is that the math isn't making sense to build new condominiums. And so the market is necessarily pausing.

We spoke about what this will likely mean for supply in the coming years, but I think it's also interesting to talk about this in the context of something else: unfunded inclusionary zoning.

As a reminder, inclusionary zoning is, in its most basic form, a requirement to build a certain amount of affordable housing as part of new housing developments. And what I mean by "unfunded" is that there are no subsidies or other incentives being provided to the project.

This means that the cost of providing this housing -- and there is an additional cost -- needs to be shouldered by the project, which ultimately means the market-rate units need to pay for it.

Which is why if you look at most policy studies, you'll often find recognition that, because of this economic reality, IZ tends to work better in areas where home prices/rents are higher. And again, that's because the market-rate homes need to shoulder the cost.

We have questioned, many times, on this blog, whether this is the right approach to delivering affordable housing, but I think this question becomes even more critical in our current market environment.

If the entire market is, for the most part, in a state of economic lockdown, should we really be layering on additional costs and making it broadly more difficult to build any sort of new housing? It seems counterintuitive.

For more on this topic, check out this recent Sightline article by Dan Bertolet.

It is hard to argue that this isn't a beautiful building:

Designed by Morris Adjmi Architects and located at the corner of Grand and Mulberry in New York City, it is exactly the kind of building that many of us would like to see more of in our cities. It has retail at grade and it's, you know, modest in scale at only 7 stories, 20 units, and 35,765 square feet.

Looking inside, here are some of the floor plans:

Overall, I would say that these layouts are more generous than what you would typically find in new builds here in Toronto. For new condominiums, 686 sf would be considered large for a one bedroom. Many/most sales teams/departments would tell you to turn this into a two bedroom.

But this doesn't mean that developers in NYC are simply being more generous with their square feet. It all costs money. And according to StreetEasy, the average sale price in this building is US$1,979,210 and the average price per square foot is US$2,384 (19 most recent sales).

This is another reminder that modest and beautiful can often equal expensive. It's how you make the math work, or at least hope to.

Last year in the Greater Toronto Area, condominium construction starts fell to a 9-year low of 15,891 homes. And this year, condominium construction starts are forecasted to fall to a 15-year low of 11,500 homes (though new sales are expected to rebound). Both of these figures are from Urbanation's Q4-2023 market data.

One possible explanation for this drop in construction starts could be that developers are somehow colluding to keep supply low and prices high. Another one could be that more developers are right now independently speculating that prices will be higher in the future, and so they think it's better to just wait. But both of these explanations would be wrong.

The correct answer is that more developers are unable to start construction because the market isn't there. In the case of Toronto's condominium market, this means that the pre-sales aren't there. This might seem obvious, but there seems to always be a contingent of people who believe that developers can choose to build whenever they want.

It is for this same reason that some people think that zoning approvals should have an expiry date. Call it a use-it-or-lose-it approach. But as I think we can see in the above numbers, developers don't control the market. And so I would never want to be in a position where I need to start construction by a certain date, or else.

That's not entirely within my control. In fact, sometimes it's completely out of my control.