Toronto may not be selling that many new condominiums these days, but population growth remains high across the region. For the 12-month period ending July 2024, the Toronto census metropolitan area added approximately 269k people. And for the 12-month period ending July 2023, it added about 255k people. In the context of Canadian and American cities, this makes it the fastest growing metropolitan area for two years running (see above chart). Lower immigration targets are expected to bring this number down going forward, and so it'll be interesting to see what these numbers look like for the period ending this summer, but this is still over half a million people in two years. I think it's also noteworthy that our housing market turned and pre-construction sales slowed around the middle of 2022, and yet our population growth and immigration levels remained the highest in Canada and the US for at least another two years. Maybe this lag helps us recover sooner than some might expect.

Chart from the Centre for Urban Research and Land Development at TMU; cover photo by Mikayla Martorano on Unsplash

Last month, I wrote a post called, More people, fewer new homes. And in it, was a chart showing that for the 12 months ending July 1, 2023, Toronto grew by approximately 126,000 people, and the Greater Toronto Area grew by about 233,000 people. Big numbers. At the end of the post, I also mentioned that this is more growth than the city has seen over the six preceding years.

But how does this compare to other cities in Canada and the US? If we look at only central cities (not metro areas), Toronto is, in fact, first. Canadian central cities, in general, also seem to be growing more quickly than their US counterparts. After Toronto is Calgary, which added nearly 87,000 people for the same time period.

Looking at metro areas, Toronto is still first. I don't know why the ~222k figure, here, doesn't reconcile with the ~233k figure from last month's post, but presumably it's some sort of boundary difference. In any event, Toronto is first. But now, once you include metro areas, US cities do much better in this list. Number two is Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

This difference between central cities and metro areas likely tells us something about the way in which these city regions are growing. Still, it would be interesting to see how much of this population growth is being accommodated through infill development vs. greenfield development. One way to measure that might be to look at changes in the footprint of their built up areas.

For more about the above two charts, check out this recent post from TMU's Center for Urban Research and Land Development.

This is an interesting chart from the Centre for Urban Research and Land Development at Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU).

It is based on recent population estimates from Statistics Canada, and what it is saying is that the Greater Toronto Area grew by 233,000 people during the 12 months ending July 1, 2023. If you include Hamilton, this number increases to 246,000. And if you include the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe, it increases to 340,000.

This is significantly more population growth compared to any of the six preceding years. And assuming this 2021 population estimate of about 9.8 million people is more or less correct, it represents an almost 3.5% growth rate. That's remarkable. It's also happening at a time when housing starts are declining.