It seems like just yesterday that people were protesting Uber for disrupting the traditional taxi business. Now the question has become: are AVs about to disrupt Uber?
Over the last six months, Uber's stock price has declined nearly 19%. At the time of writing this post, its market cap is around $155 billion, compared to Waymo's private market valuation of $126 billion (though I'm sure many would argue this is a wee bit high).
The market seems to think that self-driving cars are a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla. If this is true, what role will Uber play?
Uber has naturally tried to assuage concerns. Alongside their Q4 2025 earnings, they
It seems like just yesterday that people were protesting Uber for disrupting the traditional taxi business. Now the question has become: are AVs about to disrupt Uber?
Over the last six months, Uber's stock price has declined nearly 19%. At the time of writing this post, its market cap is around $155 billion, compared to Waymo's private market valuation of $126 billion (though I'm sure many would argue this is a wee bit high).
The market seems to think that self-driving cars are a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla. If this is true, what role will Uber play?
Uber has naturally tried to assuage concerns. Alongside their Q4 2025 earnings, they
Last week, Uber announced something called "digital tasks." These are simple, quick tasks that drivers can do when they are not driving — things like recording a voice note in a person's mother tongue, submitting a document in a different language, or uploading images of everyday items (such as a menu or storefront).
This is Uber expanding its data-labeling and AI-training business, and they are positioning it as a "new way to earn" for drivers. But another way to think about this move is that it's a way for Uber to start to repurpose its workforce in preparation for a world where human drivers are far less essential to the business. That feels like the case to me.
On a related note, Waymo also announced last week that it will start operating its autonomous ride-hailing service in London, beginning in 2026. This is another first for the company: the first commercial operation outside of the US. Though they are also driving vehicles around Tokyo in preparation for eventually launching there.
Things continue to happen. As a casual observer of this market, Waymo feels like it is out front, which often makes me wonder about Tesla's sky-high valuation. Does the market really believe their Robotaxis have more potential?
Last week, Uber announced something called "digital tasks." These are simple, quick tasks that drivers can do when they are not driving — things like recording a voice note in a person's mother tongue, submitting a document in a different language, or uploading images of everyday items (such as a menu or storefront).
This is Uber expanding its data-labeling and AI-training business, and they are positioning it as a "new way to earn" for drivers. But another way to think about this move is that it's a way for Uber to start to repurpose its workforce in preparation for a world where human drivers are far less essential to the business. That feels like the case to me.
On a related note, Waymo also announced last week that it will start operating its autonomous ride-hailing service in London, beginning in 2026. This is another first for the company: the first commercial operation outside of the US. Though they are also driving vehicles around Tokyo in preparation for eventually launching there.
Things continue to happen. As a casual observer of this market, Waymo feels like it is out front, which often makes me wonder about Tesla's sky-high valuation. Does the market really believe their Robotaxis have more potential?
AVs will change how trips are supplied, but not how demand is aggregated. History suggests that over time as supply fragments and technology commoditizes, the platform that can bring the highest utilization to assets, and superior reliability to customers, will capture a large share of value. That is the role Uber is set up to play.
One of the arguments for this is that rideshare demand is highly variable throughout a week. A typical Monday can be less than half of a Saturday night, and daily troughs can decline to something like 5% of peaks.
AVs will change how trips are supplied, but not how demand is aggregated. History suggests that over time as supply fragments and technology commoditizes, the platform that can bring the highest utilization to assets, and superior reliability to customers, will capture a large share of value. That is the role Uber is set up to play.
One of the arguments for this is that rideshare demand is highly variable throughout a week. A typical Monday can be less than half of a Saturday night, and daily troughs can decline to something like 5% of peaks.
So, if you try and service this demand variability with only AVs, you're going to have a lot of underutilized vehicles during off-peak times. This makes sense to me right now, but I'm not certain it will persist or always matter as the space evolves.
When Uber sold its AV division in 2020, I understood why (to try and reach profitability), but it always felt a little unsettling to me. AVs were very clearly the future — are you sure you want to sell this off?
Now I suspect they'll have to re-enter in a meaningful way. They're going to need to do it as long as the market continues to believe the current narrative.
I use Uber on a regular basis, but I already have the Waymo app on my phone (I downloaded it on a long layover in SFO where I contemplated a joy ride). As soon as rides become available in Toronto at reasonable prices, I wouldn't think twice about switching.
Cover photo by clement proust on Unsplash
Stock graph from the WSJ
Demand chart from Uber Q4 2025 Earnings — Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight
So, if you try and service this demand variability with only AVs, you're going to have a lot of underutilized vehicles during off-peak times. This makes sense to me right now, but I'm not certain it will persist or always matter as the space evolves.
When Uber sold its AV division in 2020, I understood why (to try and reach profitability), but it always felt a little unsettling to me. AVs were very clearly the future — are you sure you want to sell this off?
Now I suspect they'll have to re-enter in a meaningful way. They're going to need to do it as long as the market continues to believe the current narrative.
I use Uber on a regular basis, but I already have the Waymo app on my phone (I downloaded it on a long layover in SFO where I contemplated a joy ride). As soon as rides become available in Toronto at reasonable prices, I wouldn't think twice about switching.
Cover photo by clement proust on Unsplash
Stock graph from the WSJ
Demand chart from Uber Q4 2025 Earnings — Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight
In theory, this could be true. Their decentralized model — where individuals own the vehicles and plug them into their ride-hailing network — could allow them to scale quickly. But this is less proven — they're still in the pilot/validation phase. They also seem to chronically overpromise.
Regardless, I would really like to see Waymo launch in Toronto in the near future. As I understand it, regulatory barriers are the problem. I hope whoever is in charge is working on fixing this.
In theory, this could be true. Their decentralized model — where individuals own the vehicles and plug them into their ride-hailing network — could allow them to scale quickly. But this is less proven — they're still in the pilot/validation phase. They also seem to chronically overpromise.
Regardless, I would really like to see Waymo launch in Toronto in the near future. As I understand it, regulatory barriers are the problem. I hope whoever is in charge is working on fixing this.
One thing that I do not do on this blog is provide investment advice. And this post is certainly not that. But here's an idea and thought exercise that relates to urban mobility. Let's assume you own a personal vehicle that is currently valued at US$30k, and that this car is what you use to go about your daily life. Now imagine that you sold this car today, harvested all of the proceeds, and invested them into the following three companies: Uber, Alphabet, and Tesla. If you did this equally, your US$30k would end up as the following (based on today's share prices and if rounded down):
111 shares in Uber ($89.56/share)
49 shares in Alphabet ($201.42/share)
30 shares in Tesla ($329.68/share)
Then, instead of driving yourself around, you'd put the money that you would have normally spent on insurance, gas, and maintenance toward Ubers and Waymos (assuming Waymo is available in your city). Perhaps you even own a parking spot that could be rented out for an extra few hundred dollars each month. Whatever the specifics, let's just assume that what you used to spend to operate and service your car is now being spent on getting around using ride sharing services. It's a wash. So the only difference is that instead of having US$30k tied up in a depreciating asset, you're now part owner of the above three businesses.
This, once again, is not investment advice. I personally don't know how to make sense of Tesla's current valuation. There's a hell of a lot of optimism being priced in. I'm simply picking these three companies as a way to bet on Waymo's autonomous vehicle program (which is currently in the lead), Tesla's robotaxi promises (which, who knows, could actually materialize), and the fact that Uber might still remain the dominant marketplace for rides (though there's already evidence that Waymo is on track to overtake Uber in San Francisco within the next ~8 months).
It's not clear who will be the primary beneficiary of this shifting mobility landscape. Is Tesla right about
One thing that I do not do on this blog is provide investment advice. And this post is certainly not that. But here's an idea and thought exercise that relates to urban mobility. Let's assume you own a personal vehicle that is currently valued at US$30k, and that this car is what you use to go about your daily life. Now imagine that you sold this car today, harvested all of the proceeds, and invested them into the following three companies: Uber, Alphabet, and Tesla. If you did this equally, your US$30k would end up as the following (based on today's share prices and if rounded down):
111 shares in Uber ($89.56/share)
49 shares in Alphabet ($201.42/share)
30 shares in Tesla ($329.68/share)
Then, instead of driving yourself around, you'd put the money that you would have normally spent on insurance, gas, and maintenance toward Ubers and Waymos (assuming Waymo is available in your city). Perhaps you even own a parking spot that could be rented out for an extra few hundred dollars each month. Whatever the specifics, let's just assume that what you used to spend to operate and service your car is now being spent on getting around using ride sharing services. It's a wash. So the only difference is that instead of having US$30k tied up in a depreciating asset, you're now part owner of the above three businesses.
This, once again, is not investment advice. I personally don't know how to make sense of Tesla's current valuation. There's a hell of a lot of optimism being priced in. I'm simply picking these three companies as a way to bet on Waymo's autonomous vehicle program (which is currently in the lead), Tesla's robotaxi promises (which, who knows, could actually materialize), and the fact that Uber might still remain the dominant marketplace for rides (though there's already evidence that Waymo is on track to overtake Uber in San Francisco within the next ~8 months).
It's not clear who will be the primary beneficiary of this shifting mobility landscape. Is Tesla right about
So I think there's a relatively high probability that everyone who owns a personal vehicle would be better off if they did what I am suggesting in this not-investment-advice-don't-do-what-I-write blog post. In other words, if we freed ourselves of the old ways and made some bets on the future. And that's ultimately the purpose of this post. It's so that you and I can come back to it on August 10th, 2030, and see how I did with my prediction. The reminder has been set.
Cover photo by Artur Aldyrkhanov on Unsplash
So I think there's a relatively high probability that everyone who owns a personal vehicle would be better off if they did what I am suggesting in this not-investment-advice-don't-do-what-I-write blog post. In other words, if we freed ourselves of the old ways and made some bets on the future. And that's ultimately the purpose of this post. It's so that you and I can come back to it on August 10th, 2030, and see how I did with my prediction. The reminder has been set.
Cover photo by Artur Aldyrkhanov on Unsplash
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Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
