Category: Tech

• Airbnb to add long-term rentals to its platform

  In a recent interview with FT, the CEO of Airbnb, Brian Chesky, said that the company is looking at the following expansion plans:

  • Offering long-term rentals of up to one year (currently, only about 18% of bookings on the platform are for 30 days or longer)
  • Offering more “things to do on your trip”, including car rentals and dining

  These brand extensions make natural sense. You book a trip and then maybe you need a car, or something fun to do. I have used Airbnb “experiences” on a number of occasions to book things like boat tours and photographers. It’s a great service.

  Perhaps more interesting, though, is how the housing component of their platform is evolving. They started by offering excess or found space for rent (which was very clever). Then it grew to become a short-term rental platform that competed with hotels.

  This has created a significant amount of regulatory risk for the company (see New York), and so it’s not surprising that they’re looking at other ways of slicing up housing: rooms, nights, months, and now years.

  Longer stays are less contentious.

  If you’re renting on a nightly basis, then you’re an annoying tourist that is taking away housing. And if you’re renting on a monthly basis, then you might be an annoying digital nomad and that is similarly problematic. But if you’re renting for a year, well, then, that’s perfectly fine.

  Now you’re just a normal city dweller.

  Is there a world where Airbnb becomes a major platform for traditional long-term rentals?

  2023.10.04

• The Livabl Launch podcast

  Matthew Slutsky (formerly of BuzzBuzzHome fame and now of Livabl fame) recently invited me on his podcast to talk about some of our current and upcoming condominium projects, as well as about the market in general.

  Despite my best attempts, I only briefly talk about NFTs and crypto (in the context of our One Delisle project). So if any of you are sick of hearing that from me, the episode should be overall fairly tolerable.

  To have a listen, click here. It’s about 30 minutes.

  Thanks again for having me, Matthew.

  2023.09.27

• Cold, warm, hot

  Sadly, this can very easily happen in the world of crypto. If you connect your wallet to a bad actor and sign a malicious transaction, it is possible for someone to drain all of your assets (coins, NFTs, and so on). It’s pretty terrifying. And I’m sure that a lot of people will see this and say to themselves, “that’s why I don’t like crypto! It’s too risky. Too many scammers. Bunch of rat poison.”

  There is no question that crypto is risky. It’s also not very user friendly. Clearly even sophisticated users can get tricked into signing the wrong kind of blockchain transaction. It happens all the time. But this is also a nascent space. And maybe this will become less common in the future as things mature.

  Either way, there are things you can absolutely do today to protect yourself if you’re planning to own and do crypto things. One of the most important rules to follow is this one here: you should have at least 3 crypto wallets. Let’s call them cold, warm, and hot wallets (which is often how they are described in web3 land).

  A hot wallet is the one you use to connect to sites, mint things, and do whatever else. Because of this, you want to keep almost nothing in it. If you want to mint an NFT, transfer in only whatever crypto is required to complete that transaction. That way if something bad happens, it’s not devastating. Once your mint is complete, transfer out the NFT to a colder wallet.

  A cold wallet is essentially your vault. This is where you store your Mona Lisas. These are the NFTs (or whatever else) that you plan to own for the long-term. The only transactions with this wallet should be to move things in and out of it. You should never connect it to any sites/services, even if they’re reputable ones. Once you do that, it’s no longer a cold wallet. It’s now a warmer wallet.

  A warm wallet lives somewhere in between. You connect it to sites/services that you trust, and you use it to hold NFTs that you might be looking to sell in the short-term (to give just one use-case example). In my case, brandondonnelly.eth is my warm wallet. It’s where I mint the NFT photography that nobody ever buys.

  I realize that all of this probably sounds convoluted, especially to those who are unfamiliar with this space. But in today’s world, if you want to be crypto literate, you need to take things like this into consideration. My NFTs might be finally totally worthless, but I love my growing art collection and I like it being on ice in a vault.

  2023.09.26

• What’s real anymore?

  Generative AI has made it a lot easier to make things up using software like Photoshop. This, of course, isn’t a new thing. But it has gotten significantly easier for people like me who aren’t experts in photo editing.

  Here are two examples that I created this morning. The first is a photo of me from last summer in the Salt Flats of Utah:

  

  And here I am again after adding new clothes, a dog friend, a couple taking photos, a more impressive backdrop, and some sort of body of water in front of me:

  

  The second is a photo from Paris:

  

  Now here it is again with tall buildings in the background, glass storefronts, a few neon signs, string lights above the middle of the street, a bollard blocking car access, and a few more people:

  

  These aren’t entirely perfect if you’re really paying attention. But for the most part, I think they’re pretty convincing — especially the second one.

  Generated images are only going to get better going forward and I don’t think that’s a bad thing. But we do have to start training ourselves to question whether something is real or doctored. It’s already hard to tell.

  2023.09.23

• Beyond visual line of sight

  Drone delivery is one of those things that has always sounded really cool, but has yet to see a lot of adoption. As of May of this year, Amazon Prime Air has only made about 100 drone deliveries in California and Texas (the two states where it operates). This is compared to their initial target of 10,000 deliveries before the end of 2023.

  That said, last week, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved UPS (as well as other companies) to fly drones “beyond visual line of sight.” This seems like a pretty important approval, because I don’t know how you deliver anything meaningful if somebody needs to keep the drone within their line of sight.

  The thing that I can’t get over in my mind, though, is how you deal with the noise population associated with lots of drones flying around. It’s one thing if you live in a low-density community and a lonely drone comes by once in a blue moon to say hello. But in the city, even just replacing every cubed-shaped Uber Eats backpack would equal a hell of a lot of drones.

  Presumably they would fly, at least some of the time, on top of our existing streets, just above the cars. Because the authorization is only for altitudes below 400 feet. So for tall buildings, you wouldn’t always be able to do deliveries from the roof. And I guess that would be fine so long as they stop sounding like giant insects.

  If that were to be the case, it’s interesting to think about what that would do to all the real estate that exists at that same elevation.

  2023.09.12

• New York City enacts strict short-term rental law

  This past week, New York City enacted a new short-term rental registration law that is not very friendly toward platforms like Airbnb and VRBO. Here are some of the new rules:

  • All hosts must register with the city
  • No more than 2 paying guests can stay in a short-term rental at one time, regardless of the size of the home (does this mean families are excluded?)
  • Hosts and visitors must leave all doors inside the dwelling unlocked (presumably this is to stop people from creating self-contained suites within a larger home)
  • And the host must be physically present while the dwelling is being rented

  So in a way, this takes us back to the original use case of Airbnb: “Hey, I have extra space in my home. Would you like to rent this mostly clean air mattress in my living room and be my roommate for a bit?” Of course, this is not how most people like to Airbnb today. And so this is also a kind of ban on short-term rentals in New York City.

  It’s certainly stricter than the regulations we have in Toronto. Here, it must be your principal residence. Meaning you’re only legally allowed to operate one short-term rental at a time. But you don’t need to be physically present while the home is being rented. If you want to earn some extra cash while you’re away in Rio de Janeiro for New Year’s Eve, you can do that.

  However, the rules are still fairly strict. For instance, if you have a basement apartment or a laneway suite on your property, you are not technically permitted to short-term rent these dwellings, even if you live in the main portion of the home. It has to be your exact principal residence.

  Presumably the intent behind this is to not remove any housing from the long-term rental market. And if it’s your principal residence, then yeah, there’s no net loss. Though this feels like an overreach to me. It’s the same property and a homeowner could very easily decide to not even do a long-term rental in these secondary suites.

  But overall, I guess it’s still slightly more flexible than forcing hostel-like short-term rentals. Long live the hotel?

  2023.09.08

• Nobody wants to collect NFTs anymore

  

  Back when everyone wanted to buy and trade crypto, my friend Evgeny started a marketplace for NFT photography called Sloika. This, to me, felt like an obviously good idea, both in general and for him specifically. Evgeny had previously cofounded the photo company 500px, and so Sloika was initially conceived of as 500px, but for web3. This is a good story.

  I have collected a number of photos via Sloika and, in general, I continue to regularly collect NFTs. Of course today, relatively few people want to trade and collect NFTs. The market is largely dead. What is obvious is that there was a giant NFT bubble and it popped in 2022, along with some other asset bubbles.

  But does this necessarily mean that NFTs and NFT art are bad ideas?

  When I think of bubbles I often think of something that Fred Wilson wrote on his blog. His argument was that bubbles tend to be directionally right; it’s the magnitude that we get wrong. A good example of this is the dot com bubble. Yes, it was a massive bubble. But it was directionally right. The internet was going to matter — a lot it turns out.

  Even if we go back to “tulip mania” during the Dutch Golden Age — which is often brought up as the pinnacle of dumb bubbles — one could argue that it was still directionally right. Today, tulips remain the most sold flower in the US. So we still love them; we just got a little too excited back in the 17the century.

  When it comes to NFT art, I like to think in terms of these questions:

  • Will humans continue to appreciate art? (Seems obvious.)
  • Will humans continue to want to collect things? (This is arguably a fundamental human instinct.)
  • Will provenance and authenticity continue to matter in art? (Blockchain technologies are really good at this.)

  Perhaps the only question that remains is whether people will want to collect digital art. But even this feels fairly obvious to me. The challenge, I think, is that the display side of the market needs to be more built out. Because alongside the instinct to collect things is the instinct to display them. That’s why NFTs initially took off as profile pics on social media.

  So as a start, I think more, better, and cheaper displays would be a big help. There’s something very different about projecting an NFT in your living room versus having it live in a crypto wallet on your phone or computer. You need to really experience it, just as you would a conventional piece of art. And like all art, context matters.

  I haven’t yet invested in a dedicated NFT display, but I plan to do that in the near future. And I’m looking forward to displaying my collection of NFTs, including the one at the top of this post. It’s a drone shot of the west side of Toronto in the middle of winter, and it was gifted to me by Evgeny. Thank you for that. It’s an honor to have it as part of my art collection.

  Photo: Six Bling (via SuperRare)

  2023.09.07

• Climate-friendly apparel

  Bloomberg published an article today talking about “climate-friendly apparel startups.” One of the companies is a British one called Techniche International. Their main target market seems to be construction workers and supposedly their clothes can lower skin temperatures by as much as 8C.

  The way they work is through evaporative cooling. Workers start their day by soaking their “StayQool” suits. Once activated, the uniforms will then consistently remove heat from the body for up to 7 hours. (I am curious if it’s akin to putting on somebody else’s wet life jacket.)

  This is an obviously useful thing in a place like Qatar — the example that Bloomberg gives and where summer temperatures can hit 50C. But the overall trendline suggests this is going to be a growing market. Especially if the tech works really well, it doesn’t feel like you’re putting on a wet life jacket, and if there are demonstrable productivity improvements.

  According to Bloomberg, the company did £150,000 of revenue in 2014 and £7 million last year.

  2023.09.01

• Silicon Valley wants to build a new city about 60 miles northeast of San Francisco

  We talk a lot about housing supply on this blog. And most of the time it is about creating more and better infill housing, In other words, housing that leverages existing infrastructure and uses previously developed land as efficiently possible.

  But I suppose there are other options. You could, for instance, form an anonymous holding company, raise hundreds of a millions of dollars from leading venture capitalists in the Bay Area, spend $800 million on cheap agricultural land, and then just build an entirely new city about 60 miles northeast of San Francisco.

  And apparently that is happening:

  In 2017, Michael Moritz, the billionaire venture capitalist, sent a note to a potential investor about what he described as an unusual opportunity: a chance to invest in the creation of a new California city. The site was in a corner of the San Francisco Bay Area where land was cheap. Mr. Moritz and others had dreams of transforming tens of thousands of acres into a bustling metropolis that, according to the pitch, could generate thousands of jobs and be as walkable as Paris or the West Village in New York.

  Here’s the area; it’s generally between Fairfield and Rio Vista in Solano County:

  

  The real estate opportunity is an obvious one. The majority of the land in Solano County, roughly 62% of it, is zoned for agricultural uses. So it was and is relatively cheap to acquire. In isolation, I would imagine that it would be pretty difficult, if not impossible, to rezone any of it for other uses. But if you buy enough of it and if you have the resources, then maybe you figure it out.

  And if you do, it’ll all be worth significantly more, which is why this group has been reportedly paying many multiples of market value over the last 5 years. Because here’s the thing, paying $6,000 per acre instead of $1,500 per acre is almost certainly not going to move the needle considering the broader strategy. More important is that you get enough contiguous land to execute on the vision of a new city.

  This will be an interesting one to watch. And from what I have read, it sounds like they’re just now coming out of stealth acquisition mode and preparing to engage the broader community.

  2023.08.26

• I became more French & German

  I first did 23andMe back in 2015. And at that time, my ancestry composition looked like this.

  At the highest level, I was 50.6% East Asian & Native American and 49.2% European. Going one level deeper, I was 43.7% Chinese, 16.5% British & Irish, 6% French & German, and 11.5% Broadly Northern European. 23andMe uses the term “broadly” when there’s a DNA match across multiple places and it’s not exactly sure what country or countries it might be.

  Last night, I decided to log back in to 23andMe and see if anything had changed in the 8 or so years since I first did the test and, frankly, since I logged into their website. And it turns out that it has. It seemingly got more precise. I guess that’s the power of more people using the product and more data. Now my ancestry composition looks like this:

  

  So what changed? Well, at a high level I’m still half Asian and half European. But 23andMe is now telling me that my Chinese roots likely trace back to Guangdong, a southern province that borders Hong Kong. This is news to me as I’m many generations removed and I had always thought it was somewhere more northern, partially because of my height.

  Apparently, I am also no longer British & Irish (0.6%). I am now 31.1% French & German and 3.3% Broadly Northwestern European (admittedly this could include Ireland). This was surprising to me since Donnelly is clearly an Irish last name. Though, my maternal grandmother did indeed have direct French roots.

  Along with this, I became more southern European (13%), with Spanish & Portuguese being the most common match (5.6%). So am I more this than Irish? I don’t know, these matches are pretty far removed and possibly go back 5-8 generations. At the great-grandparent level, I am, according to 23andMe, (1) Chinese and (2) French & German.

  I find all of this extremely fascinating and so I think I’ll spend more time exploring the site and my family tree. They are also telling me that it’s time to order another sampling kit, since I did mine so long ago. I plan on doing that, as well as ordering two for my parents. Let’s see what that does to my ancestry composition.

  Have any of you used 23andMe and found surprising results?

  2023.08.25