Today I am going to talk about 3 things that recently happened and/or that are on my mind.

Sidewalk Labs pulled out of Toronto. I think this is sad. A lot of people have said that they're surprised, but not surprised. The official reason is that this unprecedented environment has made it financially infeasible for them to develop the 12-acre site, while still adhering to their core principles. I don't have any inside knowledge of the situation, but I can't help but think that this is probably just an opportune excuse. They were getting beat up pretty badly by Toronto on all fronts, even though they had put forward an incredibly ambitious development proposal. As I said before, I can't imagine many (or any) "conventional" developers coming forward with something like this. The last plan I saw was 1/3 non-residential, and 40% of the residential component was to be priced below market. And never mind all of the other innovations that were being contemplated.

In other tech news, Uber just led a $170 million investment in Lime (the micromobility scooter company). I think this is smart -- both from an overall mobility standpoint and, selfishly, as a shareowner of $UBER. It is being reported that this round of investment values Lime at about $510 million. This is a 79% decline from April 2019 when it raised its last round. So presumably, Uber is getting a pretty good deal here. The bet is that the urban landscape demands multi-modal transportation solutions, everything from bikes and scooters to cars and public transit. There is also an argument to be made that in the short-term, our post-pandemic world is going to gravitate toward individual mobility and away from things like public transit. I've heard a few people say that, as we re-open the global economy and try to maintain social distancing, we're going to face two major mobility bottlenecks: transit and elevators. Sounds like more testing would be a prudent idea.

Above, I was very careful to say "in the short-term" because I think the narrative that is emerging around the demise of urban density is entirely overblown. Few of us are clamoring to jump back into a mosh pit right now (perhaps a metaphorical mosh pit), but I also don't believe that we will suddenly look to sprawling Brasilia as a source of urban inspiration. While it is true that "disease did shape architecture in the 20th century" (Alex Bozikovic wrote a good piece on this over the weekend) and that there have been oscillations in terms of how we view urbanity, I also know that this isn't the first pandemic that our cities have lived through. The Hong Kong flu of 1968 is thought to have killed one million people around the world after, allegedly, emerging in one of the densest cities ever created. Hong Kong's relationship with Beijing is a tenuous one right now, but it still remains one of the world's most important global cities.

Perhaps cities are more resilient than we give them credit for.

Photo by Touann Gatouillat Vergos on Unsplash

In June of this year, Sidewalk Labs released its draft Master Innovation and Development Plan (MIDP) for Toronto's eastern waterfront. I wrote about it here. It was a draft document that was subject to further discussion and refinement, with October 31, 2019 being an important deadline for a lot of that to happen.

Some of the critical issues included project scope (just Quayside?), the possibility of a Waterfront LRT (needs to happen), data governance (who owns and manages the data that will be generated by this new smart city?) and, of course, land value. How much is Quayside worth?

A number of these key issues have now been "realigned," including the land value piece. Waterfront Toronto and Sidewalks Labs have agreed on a fair market value of $590 million (before accounting for any investments that will be required in order to achieve Waterfront Toronto's goals).

For a summary of the critical issues and what has been agreed to, click here. With these items now firmed up, Waterfront Toronto's board voted unanimously to proceed to the next phase. The next critical date is March 31, 2020, which is when the project will seek final approval. Mark your calendars.

Sidewalk Labs just released its draft Master Innovation and Development Plan ("MIDP") for Toronto's eastern waterfront. It's called Toronto Tomorrow: A New Approach for Inclusive Growth, and it's massive. Over 1,500 pages. It consists of an overview and 3 volumes, all of which can be downloaded here.

At a high-level, the objectives of the plan are twofold. They want to revitalize the eastern waterfront (it's currently appalling) and they want to test new urban ideas that could benefit the broader city, as well as the rest of the world. Deploying new technologies at a larger scale is one of the ways the company intends to make money.

I am still working my way through the plan (I may never finish), but here's a breakdown of the development program for the Quayside precinct:

If you're looking for a quick overview of the plan, here are five things to know about the Sidewalk Toronto project and here is an overview of the public-private partnership that they are proposing. Of course, there's also no shortage of criticism on Sidewalk's plans for the waterfront. Some links here, here, and here (paywall).

Sidewalk Labs is trying to assuage public concerns through some of its open commitments. They have said that they will not seek special tax subsidies, control urban data, sell personal info and/or use it for ads, or develop the entire eastern waterfront themselves. But the plan remains highly controversial.

I think part of the issue is that, because so much of what they are proposing hasn't been done before, there are a lot of unanswered questions and a great deal of uncertainty around the future. Many are interpreting this as the company hiding its true intentions. Maybe it is. Or maybe it isn't.

But let's not forget what Waterfront Toronto requested back in 2017 for these lands. It wanted an innovation and funding partner:

Waterfront Toronto is seeking a unique partner, one with invention ingrained in its culture, which can transform conventional business practices and help to establish a benchmark climate positive approach that will lead the world in city building practices.

There's no question that what Sidewalk Toronto has put forward is bold. As I scanned through the plans today, I found myself hard pressed to think of any "conventional" developer that would be willing to come forward with a proposal as ambitious as this one.

As you all know, Sidewalk Labs' parent company is called Alphabet. But I think it's worth mentioning that "alpha" is a finance term that refers to the excess return of a strategy beyond that of a benchmark index. Put differently: How much better are you than the status quo?

The whole point of Alphabet is that they're supposed to make "alpha bets" on ambitious projects. They are given the "resources, freedom, and focus" to try new things. Sometimes those projects will fail. But in other cases they will succeed in moving the world forward.

Every city today is trying to grow a thriving technology ecosystem. We want to be innovative. We want to transform conventional businesses practices. And we want to lead the world. Unfortunately, that rise to the top is almost never a smooth and linear one. There will be mistakes along the way.

How badly do we want to lead?