"Anxiety is experiencing failure in advance." — Seth Godin

I mention and quote Seth Godin fairly often on this blog and so it only seems right to share this recent podcast that he did on the Tim Ferriss Show. Broadly speaking, the conversation is about "the game of life, the value of hacks, and overcoming anxiety." I think most of you will find it useful regardless of what you do and what you're involved in. It's over an hour long, but there's a full transcript available if you'd prefer to read, rather than listen. If you're looking for something even shorter, here's a quick video by Tim Ferris that has Seth talking about why worrying isn't productive and that it's really in service of our need for status quo and reassurance.

Seth Godin's blog post this morning, called "I hate this restaurant," is really excellent. I would encourage you all to read it. In it, he talks about a mismatch of expectations. More specifically, he gives the example of somebody going to a restaurant and not liking what's on offer, and therefore being upset. It's not that the food was bad or that the restaurant has failed, it's just that the person didn't get what they were expecting. There's a mismatch. And this, of course, happens all over the place and not just in restaurants. In his view, this failure is caused by a few different factors that ultimately result in us -- the people that are involved in everything from the arts to business -- having to make a decision about the kind of operation we would like to run. Below is an excerpt of those things. For the full post, click here.

This failure comes from a few contributing factors, all amplified by our culture:

First, you can’t know if you’re going to like an experience until you experience it. All you know is your understanding of what was on offer. And because there are so many choices and there’s so much noise, we rarely take the time to actually read the label, or we get carried away by the coming attractions, or we just don’t care enough to pay attention until we’re already involved.

[And marketers are complicit, because in the face of too much noise, they hype what’s on offer and overpromise…]

Second, because many people are afraid. They’re afraid of the new and even more than that, afraid of change. Most people in our culture would like to be entertained not transformed, lectured at instead of learning.

Third, the double-edged sword of giving everyone a microphone means that we’ve amplified the voices of dissent at the same time we’ve given people a chance to speak up about their desires. This means that mass culture is far more divisive than it ever was before, and it also means that bubbles of interest are more likely to be served.

And so the fork in the road:

You can either turn your operation into a cross between McDonald’s and Disney, selling the regular kind, pandering to the middle, putting everything in exactly the category they hoped for and challenging no expectations…

Or you can do the incredibly hard work of transgressing genres, challenging expectations and seeking out the few people who want to experience something that matters, instead of something that’s merely safe.

Back in 2008, I was living in the United States. And at that time, during the financial crisis, I remember people positing that the US wouldn't be able to build another commercial office building for at least the next twenty years. That's how bad things felt. People were panicking. But of course, that never happened. Yes, it took some time for real estate values to recover and for people to deleverage, but ultimately things did recover. New buildings were built and new ideas flourished.

In fact, I'll never forget what a close friend of mine said to me a few years after that moment in 2008. He said to me, "you know what Brandon, the crisis was probably one of the best things to happen to me. It meant that I couldn't find a job and I was forced to start my own company. I probably wouldn't have done that otherwise."

Today, we're living through a different kind of crisis with its own set of uncertainties. Some, or perhaps many, seem to think it could lead to the demise of cities, similar to how our last crisis was supposed to lead to the demise of new office buildings (at least for a period of time). It's easy to get caught up in narratives and headlines at times like this. And there are always ways to convince ourselves that this time might be different. Sure, we've had pandemics before, but previous generations didn't have the tech that we have, right? Perhaps.

The challenge is that we're all trying to decode how much of what's happening today is related to (1) short-term dislocation, (2) trends that were already happening and just got accelerated, or (3) durable and long-term structural changes. My own view is that the post-mortems will reveal more of (1) and (2), as opposed to (3). And that will mean that some of us have maybe been making long-term decisions (flee the city) based on short-term dislocation (a 1-2 year health crisis).

Of course, I could be wrong. But it's what I believe and what I have conviction around.

Headlines are designed to target what Seth Godin and others refer to as our "lizard brain." That being the primitive part of our brain that tells us when we're, among other things, scared, hungry, fearful, and horny. What excites the lizard brain is not a headline saying that everything will probably be just fine. What excites the lizard brain is a headline saying that everything is utterly broken and a new paradigm is now upon us -- pay attention or perish.

It's for this reason that I think it can be helpful to pause and ask yourself: "What is it that I truly believe?"