In some ways, the findings of this walkability study should feel intuitively obvious. But at the same time, it's an important reminder that we are all products of our environment. If you grow up and live in a city like San Francisco, there's going to be a higher probability that you will choose a career in something tech-related versus if you're in, say, Scranton, Pennsylvania. If you grow up and live in a city like Copenhagen, there's going to be a higher probability that you will cycle versus if you're in, say, Badger, Alaska.
And, it turns out, if you live in a walkable city, you're more likely to walk. Importantly, it doesn't appear to be because of some sort of "selection effect," meaning that people who like to be active naturally gravitate to more walkable cities. In the study, researchers analyzed smartphone data from 2013 to 2016 for 2 million people, including more than 5,000 people who moved during this time. What they found was that after relocating to a more walkable city, people took on average about 1,100 more steps a day (roughly 11 minutes of extra walking).
The inverse was also true: people who relocated to less walkable cities tended to walk less. Again, on some level, this may seem intuitive, but it shows just how mutable our behaviours are. People will generally do what their built environments have been designed to accommodate — whether that's driving, cycling, or walking. Perhaps this also explains why, when I'm traveling, I want to buy that absurd article of clothing that I know I'll never wear back home in Toronto.
At the time, and in that environment, it feels appropriate.
Cover photo by Abby Rurenko on Unsplash
Map from Scientific American
Earlier this month, self-driving car company Waymo announced that it had raised $16 billion (largely from its parent company, Alphabet) at a $126 billion post-money valuation. This is a big number. And according to Bloomberg, the company's annualized revenue run rate is around $350 million, meaning its current valuation is sitting at 360x revenue.
Multiples can often be sky-high for new, huge-bet companies, but Om Malik recently offered an interesting take on the "physics of the problem."
As of the end of 2025, Waymo was operating approximately 2,500 vehicles across its cities, with San Francisco and Los Angeles currently responsible for about 68% of the company's rides. And these cars are already running 16 hours a day, with an estimated 18 minutes of average idle time between trips.
To get from 400,000 trips per week (where they are today) to 1 million trips per week (where they want to be by the end of 2026), Om estimates that the company will need to add at least another 3,500 vehicles to its fleet.
If I then ask Gemini to extrapolate this out such that its revenue increases enough to drop its multiple down to 30x revenue, the company needs a global fleet close to 25,000 vehicles. That's ~22,500 more than it has today, and at $175k per Jaguar, that's an additional $4 billion in vehicles.
I guess it has the money for that, but it'll be fascinating to see how easily the company is able to scale around the world. This year, the plan is to expand to 20 more cities (with a list that erroneously leaves out Toronto). If successful, this will have a profound impact on our cities. And the lofty valuation represents an expectation that it will be.
Cover photo by Josh Hild
Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.
The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).
A number of things stand out.
The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.
The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).
Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).
Back to the office, I guess.
Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.
In some ways, the findings of this walkability study should feel intuitively obvious. But at the same time, it's an important reminder that we are all products of our environment. If you grow up and live in a city like San Francisco, there's going to be a higher probability that you will choose a career in something tech-related versus if you're in, say, Scranton, Pennsylvania. If you grow up and live in a city like Copenhagen, there's going to be a higher probability that you will cycle versus if you're in, say, Badger, Alaska.
And, it turns out, if you live in a walkable city, you're more likely to walk. Importantly, it doesn't appear to be because of some sort of "selection effect," meaning that people who like to be active naturally gravitate to more walkable cities. In the study, researchers analyzed smartphone data from 2013 to 2016 for 2 million people, including more than 5,000 people who moved during this time. What they found was that after relocating to a more walkable city, people took on average about 1,100 more steps a day (roughly 11 minutes of extra walking).
The inverse was also true: people who relocated to less walkable cities tended to walk less. Again, on some level, this may seem intuitive, but it shows just how mutable our behaviours are. People will generally do what their built environments have been designed to accommodate — whether that's driving, cycling, or walking. Perhaps this also explains why, when I'm traveling, I want to buy that absurd article of clothing that I know I'll never wear back home in Toronto.
At the time, and in that environment, it feels appropriate.
Cover photo by Abby Rurenko on Unsplash
Map from Scientific American
Earlier this month, self-driving car company Waymo announced that it had raised $16 billion (largely from its parent company, Alphabet) at a $126 billion post-money valuation. This is a big number. And according to Bloomberg, the company's annualized revenue run rate is around $350 million, meaning its current valuation is sitting at 360x revenue.
Multiples can often be sky-high for new, huge-bet companies, but Om Malik recently offered an interesting take on the "physics of the problem."
As of the end of 2025, Waymo was operating approximately 2,500 vehicles across its cities, with San Francisco and Los Angeles currently responsible for about 68% of the company's rides. And these cars are already running 16 hours a day, with an estimated 18 minutes of average idle time between trips.
To get from 400,000 trips per week (where they are today) to 1 million trips per week (where they want to be by the end of 2026), Om estimates that the company will need to add at least another 3,500 vehicles to its fleet.
If I then ask Gemini to extrapolate this out such that its revenue increases enough to drop its multiple down to 30x revenue, the company needs a global fleet close to 25,000 vehicles. That's ~22,500 more than it has today, and at $175k per Jaguar, that's an additional $4 billion in vehicles.
I guess it has the money for that, but it'll be fascinating to see how easily the company is able to scale around the world. This year, the plan is to expand to 20 more cities (with a list that erroneously leaves out Toronto). If successful, this will have a profound impact on our cities. And the lofty valuation represents an expectation that it will be.
Cover photo by Josh Hild
Here is a chart from Residential Club showing home price changes in America's 50 largest metro areas.
The month-over-month figure is between August and September 2025. The year-over-year figure is between September 2024 and September 2025. And the "shift since 2022 peak" is the change in home prices since each market's respective 2022 peak (not always the same date apparently).
A number of things stand out.
The month-over-month figures do not look encouraging. The vast majority of markets have gone negative. Of course, one month does not make a trend. The year-over-year column (which is how this table is sorted) looks more balanced, but the national average is still at 0%.
The most prominent outliers in the negative direction are New Orleans (which has been uniquely flat since the start of the pandemic in March 2020), San Francisco and Phoenix (which have both seen a double digit percentage drop since the peak), and Austin (which is down over 25% since the peak).
Austin is a prime example of what happens when you bring a lot of new housing supply to a market — prices come down. Earlier this year we spoke about apartment rents being down 22% from their August 2023 peak. These effects are also being heightened by increased outmigration from the city (previously the fastest growing US metro area).
Back to the office, I guess.
Even with the declines since 2022, most markets remain up significantly, with many smaller markets like Buffalo and Hartford continuing to show strong year-over-year gains. It is interesting to me that over 5 years later, we are still working through the market distortions brought about by the pandemic. The market is searching for a new equilibrium.
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