Exactly a year ago, I wrote this post talking about "what might happen in 2024." Now let's see what actually happened and how I did with my predictions.

• Interest rate cuts: This was perhaps an easy one as there was already a market consensus that rates would start to come down in 2024. The Bank of Canada cut its policy interest rate by 175 bps (target of 3.25%), and the US cut its federal funds rate by 100 bps (target of 4.5%). [1 point]

• Impact of higher rates: I predicted that things would get worse in 2024 before they started to get better (maybe toward the end of 2024 or perhaps in 2025). In some ways, I think I was right. But I'm not sure we've returned to a "risk-on" approach in commercial real estate, like I suggested. Toward the end of the year, my American friends were telling me that things were suddenly feeling a lot more optimistic and that more deals were being done. But I still feel like we've been kicking the can down the road here in Canada. The public markets certainly did very well, but I think the private markets are still hiding some underwater real estate investments. [0.5 point]

• Balanced residential resale market: I thought that we would return to a more balanced resale market in 2024, certainly for the most-in demand cities and submarkets. Here in Toronto, it remains a buyer's market on the condominium side, but the freehold market in Central Toronto has shown signs of improvement over the last few months. Detached house values are up 4.6% year-over-year, despite listing supply also being up 29%. The resilience of core submarkets is what you would expect to see right now during this part of the cycle. (If you're interested in Toronto real estate, my friend Christopher Bibby has a great newsletter that he publishes periodically.) At the same time, I thought that the Bank of Canada would be more resistant to lowering rates compared to other central banks, and that this would be good for the Canadian dollar. I was wrong. [0 points]

• Finding good real estate deals in 2024: I argued that this year would be a pivotal year for finding new opportunities. Maybe that was the case for some of you, but as I said above, I think that here in Canada we're still kicking the can down the road. So this one is hard to say. 2025 may end up being more pivotal for many real estate developers and investors. [0 points]

• Declining hard costs: Like many of my other predictions, this is market specific. But this absolutely happened here in Toronto. For some trades and divisions, costs are down in the range of 25-30%. And I can tell you that over this past year I received many phone calls from construction executives that sounded something like this, "Hey, I'm about to lay off a bunch of people, so I just wanted to call and see if you might have any new projects starting up in the near future." [1 point]

Total score: 6/11 (~55%). Not bad.

I like this score because it means I'm not being too consensus. What fun would that be? That said, I do think some of my predictions were a little obvious. I don't want to be just extrapolating existing data forward; I want to be thinking critically. I also try not to stray too far into topics that I'm not well versed on, like shopping on TikTok. But it's a fine line given my strong interest in tech and crypto. I'll see what I can do to tighten things up and be a little more non-consensus with my predictions this year.

Stay tuned.

I grew up watching Arnold Schwarzenegger movies, and I have always found him to be a super impressive guy. Bodybuilding, movies, and politics -- he always seems to have the discipline and the confidence to accomplish his goals. But what some of you may not be aware of is that he actually had an illustrious real estate career before he became a movie star, and that this side hustle made him a millionaire before he ever starred in Conan.

Here's an excerpt from a recent interview that he did with Tim Ferriss:

I did not rely on my movie career to make a living. That was my intention because I saw over the years the people that worked out in the gym and that I met in the acting classes, they were all very vulnerable because they didn’t have any money and they had to take anything that was offered to them because that was their living. I didn’t want to get into that situation. I felt like if I am smart with real estate and take my little money that I make in bodybuilding and in seminars and selling my courses through the mail orders, I could save up enough money to put down money for an apartment building.

I realized in the 70’s that the inflation rate was very high and therefore an investment like that is unbeatable. Buildings that I would buy for $500K within the year were $800K and I put only maybe $100K down, so you made 300% on your money. You couldn’t beat that. I quickly developed and traded up my buildings and bought more apartment buildings and office buildings on Main Street down in Santa Monica and so on. The investments were very good and it was just one of those magic decades.

Exactly a year ago, I wrote this post talking about "what might happen in 2024." Now let's see what actually happened and how I did with my predictions.

• Interest rate cuts: This was perhaps an easy one as there was already a market consensus that rates would start to come down in 2024. The Bank of Canada cut its policy interest rate by 175 bps (target of 3.25%), and the US cut its federal funds rate by 100 bps (target of 4.5%). [1 point]

• Impact of higher rates: I predicted that things would get worse in 2024 before they started to get better (maybe toward the end of 2024 or perhaps in 2025). In some ways, I think I was right. But I'm not sure we've returned to a "risk-on" approach in commercial real estate, like I suggested. Toward the end of the year, my American friends were telling me that things were suddenly feeling a lot more optimistic and that more deals were being done. But I still feel like we've been kicking the can down the road here in Canada. The public markets certainly did very well, but I think the private markets are still hiding some underwater real estate investments. [0.5 point]

• Balanced residential resale market: I thought that we would return to a more balanced resale market in 2024, certainly for the most-in demand cities and submarkets. Here in Toronto, it remains a buyer's market on the condominium side, but the freehold market in Central Toronto has shown signs of improvement over the last few months. Detached house values are up 4.6% year-over-year, despite listing supply also being up 29%. The resilience of core submarkets is what you would expect to see right now during this part of the cycle. (If you're interested in Toronto real estate, my friend Christopher Bibby has a great newsletter that he publishes periodically.) At the same time, I thought that the Bank of Canada would be more resistant to lowering rates compared to other central banks, and that this would be good for the Canadian dollar. I was wrong. [0 points]

• Finding good real estate deals in 2024: I argued that this year would be a pivotal year for finding new opportunities. Maybe that was the case for some of you, but as I said above, I think that here in Canada we're still kicking the can down the road. So this one is hard to say. 2025 may end up being more pivotal for many real estate developers and investors. [0 points]

• Declining hard costs: Like many of my other predictions, this is market specific. But this absolutely happened here in Toronto. For some trades and divisions, costs are down in the range of 25-30%. And I can tell you that over this past year I received many phone calls from construction executives that sounded something like this, "Hey, I'm about to lay off a bunch of people, so I just wanted to call and see if you might have any new projects starting up in the near future." [1 point]

Total score: 6/11 (~55%). Not bad.

I like this score because it means I'm not being too consensus. What fun would that be? That said, I do think some of my predictions were a little obvious. I don't want to be just extrapolating existing data forward; I want to be thinking critically. I also try not to stray too far into topics that I'm not well versed on, like shopping on TikTok. But it's a fine line given my strong interest in tech and crypto. I'll see what I can do to tighten things up and be a little more non-consensus with my predictions this year.

Stay tuned.

I grew up watching Arnold Schwarzenegger movies, and I have always found him to be a super impressive guy. Bodybuilding, movies, and politics -- he always seems to have the discipline and the confidence to accomplish his goals. But what some of you may not be aware of is that he actually had an illustrious real estate career before he became a movie star, and that this side hustle made him a millionaire before he ever starred in Conan.

Here's an excerpt from a recent interview that he did with Tim Ferriss:

I did not rely on my movie career to make a living. That was my intention because I saw over the years the people that worked out in the gym and that I met in the acting classes, they were all very vulnerable because they didn’t have any money and they had to take anything that was offered to them because that was their living. I didn’t want to get into that situation. I felt like if I am smart with real estate and take my little money that I make in bodybuilding and in seminars and selling my courses through the mail orders, I could save up enough money to put down money for an apartment building.

I realized in the 70’s that the inflation rate was very high and therefore an investment like that is unbeatable. Buildings that I would buy for $500K within the year were $800K and I put only maybe $100K down, so you made 300% on your money. You couldn’t beat that. I quickly developed and traded up my buildings and bought more apartment buildings and office buildings on Main Street down in Santa Monica and so on. The investments were very good and it was just one of those magic decades.