Between 2020 and 2021, so right when the pandemic hit, Manhattan alone lost $16 billion of federally-taxable income, according to this recent study by Economic Innovation Group. And San Francisco saw net migration that reduced its federal income tax base by more than $8 billion. At the time, this represented about a 20% decline.
Now, I don't know to what extent this maybe changed, slowed, or reversed from 2021 to today, but the IRS tax data is pretty clear: the pandemic accelerated a longstanding trend of Americans moving out of older coastal cities toward newer, sunnier, and more sprawling cities in the sun belt and in the Mountain West region.
Here is a map from EIG showing the difference in incomes between households moving in and moving out of each US county. A dark blue county means that the people who moved in were richer than the people who left. (For an interactive version, click through to their website.)
To give two examples. Here is San Francisco County, which lost nearly 20,000 people with average incomes of around $240,000 per year.
And here is Summit County, Utah (home of Parkview Mountain House in the Mountain West region), which saw 81 new tax returns and an average newcomer income of $395,000 per year.
This is an important reminder that people -- especially people of means -- vote with their feet. If they stop liking a place, they will leave, along with their incomes, to somewhere else. Indeed, in the case of this IRS data, the income flows to these growth regions seem to have been largely driven by upper-income households.
Between 2020 and 2021, so right when the pandemic hit, Manhattan alone lost $16 billion of federally-taxable income, according to this recent study by Economic Innovation Group. And San Francisco saw net migration that reduced its federal income tax base by more than $8 billion. At the time, this represented about a 20% decline.
Now, I don't know to what extent this maybe changed, slowed, or reversed from 2021 to today, but the IRS tax data is pretty clear: the pandemic accelerated a longstanding trend of Americans moving out of older coastal cities toward newer, sunnier, and more sprawling cities in the sun belt and in the Mountain West region.
Here is a map from EIG showing the difference in incomes between households moving in and moving out of each US county. A dark blue county means that the people who moved in were richer than the people who left. (For an interactive version, click through to their website.)
To give two examples. Here is San Francisco County, which lost nearly 20,000 people with average incomes of around $240,000 per year.
And here is Summit County, Utah (home of Parkview Mountain House in the Mountain West region), which saw 81 new tax returns and an average newcomer income of $395,000 per year.
This is an important reminder that people -- especially people of means -- vote with their feet. If they stop liking a place, they will leave, along with their incomes, to somewhere else. Indeed, in the case of this IRS data, the income flows to these growth regions seem to have been largely driven by upper-income households.
We poured the concrete footings/foundations for Parkview Mountain House this week. Above is a photo of the pour. We're about two weeks behind schedule because of delays related to site works and excavation. (We're building into the side of a mountain.) But I'm hopeful we can make it up once we finish concrete work and move on to wood framing next month.
For those of you who like details, here's a section showing the footing and retaining wall on the back of the property facing the slope of the mountain:
Our tallest retaining wall is going to be 15 feet high, which, as I understand it, is more or less the maximum we could have done here without getting into more elaborate structural solutions (such as tiebacks). So the team spent a lot of time solving a design puzzle that involved the height of this retaining wall, the maximum allowable zoning height for the site, and our choice of established grade.
Onward. More concrete to come and then we move to wood. It's a race to get "closed in" before the snow starts up again.
We spent his morning meeting with prospective property managers for Parkview Mountain House. Here’s what we learned about the short-term rental market in Park City, Utah:
Property management fees generally range from 20-35% of revenue (these are turnkey solutions)
Airbnb is somewhere around 80% of the market here; though it does tend to skew toward slightly smaller rentals, whereas VRBO skews larger
Sundance Film Festival and New Year’s Eve are the two busiest times in Park City (demand greatly exceeds the available vacation rentals — 120%?)
Many Sundance guests tends to be people on expenses accounts: not price sensitive, but apparently very demanding
Winter is obviously peak demand because of snowboarding and skiing, but demand is still strong in the summer because of cycling, hiking, golfing, fishing, etc.
The two slowest times are spring (mud season) and fall
Many PMs will track booking lead times, which is the period of time between booking and check-in
This past winter season, demand was strong but average lead times were way down — meaning people were booking last minute and responding to snowstorms
During heavy snowfall seasons, like the one Utah had this past winter, you’ll likely need to budget for roof snow clearing (a few thousand for the season)
Heated driveways are a very good idea in the mountains
The most popular / most searched amenity is by far a hot tub; servicing one will run you about $125 per month
I always find it fascinating to dig in and learn about a new industry and/or market. And that’s exactly what we did this morning.
We poured the concrete footings/foundations for Parkview Mountain House this week. Above is a photo of the pour. We're about two weeks behind schedule because of delays related to site works and excavation. (We're building into the side of a mountain.) But I'm hopeful we can make it up once we finish concrete work and move on to wood framing next month.
For those of you who like details, here's a section showing the footing and retaining wall on the back of the property facing the slope of the mountain:
Our tallest retaining wall is going to be 15 feet high, which, as I understand it, is more or less the maximum we could have done here without getting into more elaborate structural solutions (such as tiebacks). So the team spent a lot of time solving a design puzzle that involved the height of this retaining wall, the maximum allowable zoning height for the site, and our choice of established grade.
Onward. More concrete to come and then we move to wood. It's a race to get "closed in" before the snow starts up again.
We spent his morning meeting with prospective property managers for Parkview Mountain House. Here’s what we learned about the short-term rental market in Park City, Utah:
Property management fees generally range from 20-35% of revenue (these are turnkey solutions)
Airbnb is somewhere around 80% of the market here; though it does tend to skew toward slightly smaller rentals, whereas VRBO skews larger
Sundance Film Festival and New Year’s Eve are the two busiest times in Park City (demand greatly exceeds the available vacation rentals — 120%?)
Many Sundance guests tends to be people on expenses accounts: not price sensitive, but apparently very demanding
Winter is obviously peak demand because of snowboarding and skiing, but demand is still strong in the summer because of cycling, hiking, golfing, fishing, etc.
The two slowest times are spring (mud season) and fall
Many PMs will track booking lead times, which is the period of time between booking and check-in
This past winter season, demand was strong but average lead times were way down — meaning people were booking last minute and responding to snowstorms
During heavy snowfall seasons, like the one Utah had this past winter, you’ll likely need to budget for roof snow clearing (a few thousand for the season)
Heated driveways are a very good idea in the mountains
The most popular / most searched amenity is by far a hot tub; servicing one will run you about $125 per month
I always find it fascinating to dig in and learn about a new industry and/or market. And that’s exactly what we did this morning.
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