I opened up X this afternoon and I saw a photographer tweet that he hadn't sold a single NFT in the last four months. His conclusion: The NFT market is dying, if not already dead. There are no collectors left. Damn.
I'm sure it probably feels this way to most. But the reality is that there are a lot of asset classes that feel this exact same way today. (I know that many of you will contest whether NFTs are actually an asset class.) There aren't a lot of buyers out there right now.
But that doesn't necessarily mean that the NFT market, in particular, is done with. In fact, if you look around, there are countless signs that point to the opposite.
I, for example, find it interesting that if you're an architect or a city planner in the US, and looking to check off some continuing education units, you can now register for a course at Harvard called From Crypto to the Metaverse: Blockchain Applications in Real Estate.
And if you look at the learning objectives, it includes things like demystifying how Blockchain technologies work, how they might impact real estate businesses in the future, and what opportunities they may create. This suggests we're still early.
Right now just feels like that time in the cycle that tests both your conviction and your discipline. It's easy to believe in something when everyone else does. But what about when most people don't?
Back when everyone wanted to buy and trade crypto, my friend Evgeny started a marketplace for NFT photography called Sloika. This, to me, felt like an obviously good idea, both in general and for him specifically. Evgeny had previously cofounded the photo company 500px, and so Sloika was initially conceived of as 500px, but for web3. This is a good story.
I have collected a number of photos via Sloika and, in general, I continue to regularly collect NFTs. Of course today, relatively few people want to trade and collect NFTs. The market is largely dead. What is obvious is that there was a giant NFT bubble and it popped in 2022, along with some other asset bubbles.
But does this necessarily mean that NFTs and NFT art are bad ideas?
When I think of bubbles I often think of something that Fred Wilson wrote on his blog. His argument was that bubbles tend to be directionally right; it's the magnitude that we get wrong. A good example of this is the dot com bubble. Yes, it was a massive bubble. But it was directionally right. The internet was going to matter -- a lot it turns out.
Even if we go back to "tulip mania" during the Dutch Golden Age -- which is often brought up as the pinnacle of dumb bubbles -- one could argue that it was still directionally right. Today, tulips remain the most sold flower in the US. So we still love them; we just got a little too excited back in the 17the century.
When it comes to NFT art, I like to think in terms of these questions:
Will humans continue to appreciate art? (Seems obvious.)
Will humans continue to want to collect things? (This is arguably a fundamental human instinct.)
Will provenance and authenticity continue to matter in art? (Blockchain technologies are really good at this.)
Perhaps the only question that remains is whether people will want to collect digital art. But even this feels fairly obvious to me. The challenge, I think, is that the display side of the market needs to be more built out. Because alongside the instinct to collect things is the instinct to display them. That's why NFTs initially took off as profile pics on social media.
So as a start, I think more, better, and cheaper displays would be a big help. There's something very different about projecting an NFT in your living room versus having it live in a crypto wallet on your phone or computer. You need to really experience it, just as you would a conventional piece of art. And like all art, context matters.
I haven't yet invested in a dedicated NFT display, but I plan to do that in the near future. And I'm looking forward to displaying my collection of NFTs, including the one at the top of this post. It's a drone shot of the west side of Toronto in the middle of winter, and it was gifted to me by Evgeny. Thank you for that. It's an honor to have it as part of my art collection.
I recently collected two NFTs from aerial photographer Vitor Esteves. I purchased one of Menton, France and one of Las Negras, Spain (pictured above). Both are from his 1/1 Coastline Villages collection on Sloika. I know that NFTs aren't nearly as popular as they were last year, but that is exactly why now is a great time to be collecting. Talented artists continue to create, but ETH gas fees have come way down (a few dollars versus sometimes over a hundred at the peak) and there is now far less competition out there. It is no different than trying to buy great real estate when the rest of the market is sleeping.
At some point, I'm going to need to pull the trigger on a good NFT display. I've been contemplating a Tokenframe, but I also think that most TVs are going to appropriate this function pretty soon. Some already have.
