Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Most of us have felt the effects of supply chain disruption during this pandemic. When we were building Mackay Laneway House this past winter, it was right when lumber prices were peaking. We had no choice but to just absorb the cost premiums and move forward with the job. On bigger projects with longer construction schedules, I know that a lot of us are trying to time what they can with the expectation that things will eventually sort themselves out.
When things are working as they should, this is the sort of thing that you can take for granted. But now you really need to consider lead times and cost premiums. I was reading this morning that the average number of wait days from anchorage to berth in a port in Los Angeles is now 13 days. What that means is that vessels are sitting out in the water, on average, for almost 2 weeks waiting a spot. This costs money.
As of last week, this translated into 79 container ships sitting in front of Los Angeles and Long Beach waiting to berth (see above chart). If you do the math, which Freight Waves tried to do over here, you get to a value of somewhere around $26 billion worth of stuff sitting out in the water. As I understand it, a big part of the problem is a lack of trucks and drivers to pick up the cargo once these ships have berthed. So you can run the ports 24/7, but you still have a bottleneck.
Logistics clearly matter.
Chart: American Shipper with data from Marine Exchange of Southern California, via Freight Waves
https://youtu.be/ZBoG6hH-Z8o
This is a great 30 minute talk by Horace Dediu that is structured around his 10 commandments of micromobility. If you can't see the embedded video above, click here. What I think that many of you will appreciate about the talk is that he focuses on smaller interventions. Think bike lanes over big hyperloop moonshoots. In his words, we're going to get to where we want to go not through hyperbole, but through humility. And micromobility is all about humility.
I'm also a big fan of his last commandment. It is titled: cities always win. Yup.
McKinsey published a report last month on the future of electric vehicles and what that will mean for the industry. Many countries, cities, and companies have set some sort of electrification target for 2030. The US is targeting 50% EVs by 2030. Several countries have announced a flat-out end to ICE sales by 2030. And a number of OEMs have committed to the same.
But there are already cities, such as Oslo, which have reached EV majority. In July of this year, its passenger EV adoption figure was 66%, making Norway a global leader. What is clear is that the electrification of personal transport is well underway. Anecdotally, we are seeing that play out with the number of people now inquiring about electric charging infrastructure in our buildings (here in Toronto).
This move to electric will have many repercussions, including a major shift in the entire supply chain (which McKinsey outlines in their report). While ICE vehicles and EVs still both have things like tires, EVs require a whole slew of new and now growing components:
Most of us have felt the effects of supply chain disruption during this pandemic. When we were building Mackay Laneway House this past winter, it was right when lumber prices were peaking. We had no choice but to just absorb the cost premiums and move forward with the job. On bigger projects with longer construction schedules, I know that a lot of us are trying to time what they can with the expectation that things will eventually sort themselves out.
When things are working as they should, this is the sort of thing that you can take for granted. But now you really need to consider lead times and cost premiums. I was reading this morning that the average number of wait days from anchorage to berth in a port in Los Angeles is now 13 days. What that means is that vessels are sitting out in the water, on average, for almost 2 weeks waiting a spot. This costs money.
As of last week, this translated into 79 container ships sitting in front of Los Angeles and Long Beach waiting to berth (see above chart). If you do the math, which Freight Waves tried to do over here, you get to a value of somewhere around $26 billion worth of stuff sitting out in the water. As I understand it, a big part of the problem is a lack of trucks and drivers to pick up the cargo once these ships have berthed. So you can run the ports 24/7, but you still have a bottleneck.
Logistics clearly matter.
Chart: American Shipper with data from Marine Exchange of Southern California, via Freight Waves
https://youtu.be/ZBoG6hH-Z8o
This is a great 30 minute talk by Horace Dediu that is structured around his 10 commandments of micromobility. If you can't see the embedded video above, click here. What I think that many of you will appreciate about the talk is that he focuses on smaller interventions. Think bike lanes over big hyperloop moonshoots. In his words, we're going to get to where we want to go not through hyperbole, but through humility. And micromobility is all about humility.
I'm also a big fan of his last commandment. It is titled: cities always win. Yup.
McKinsey published a report last month on the future of electric vehicles and what that will mean for the industry. Many countries, cities, and companies have set some sort of electrification target for 2030. The US is targeting 50% EVs by 2030. Several countries have announced a flat-out end to ICE sales by 2030. And a number of OEMs have committed to the same.
But there are already cities, such as Oslo, which have reached EV majority. In July of this year, its passenger EV adoption figure was 66%, making Norway a global leader. What is clear is that the electrification of personal transport is well underway. Anecdotally, we are seeing that play out with the number of people now inquiring about electric charging infrastructure in our buildings (here in Toronto).
This move to electric will have many repercussions, including a major shift in the entire supply chain (which McKinsey outlines in their report). While ICE vehicles and EVs still both have things like tires, EVs require a whole slew of new and now growing components:
It is also going to force new public infrastructure:
But in parallel to the electrification of personal vehicles, we are also seeing a number of other trends and shifts. The electrification of public transport (Shenzhen has already electrified its entire bus and taxi fleets). The rise of micro-mobility (things like e-scooters). The ongoing push to discourage driving in urban centers. And the continuing goal of autonomous vehicles.
What all of this suggests to me is that the electrification of personal vehicles is only part of the story. The entire mobility landscape in our cities is changing and it will probably look a lot different by 2030.
It is also going to force new public infrastructure:
But in parallel to the electrification of personal vehicles, we are also seeing a number of other trends and shifts. The electrification of public transport (Shenzhen has already electrified its entire bus and taxi fleets). The rise of micro-mobility (things like e-scooters). The ongoing push to discourage driving in urban centers. And the continuing goal of autonomous vehicles.
What all of this suggests to me is that the electrification of personal vehicles is only part of the story. The entire mobility landscape in our cities is changing and it will probably look a lot different by 2030.
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