People in Toronto are deeply and rightly frustrated about our traffic. We have truly world-class congestion. But here's the thing, the way we're going about solving this problem is all wrong.
Transportation staff seem to believe that congestion charges would not reduce or deter traffic from coming into Toronto. Never mind all the global precedents, never mind that we have the tolled 407 highway to look to, and never mind that economics tells us that when the price of something increases, the quantity demanded decreases.
People in Toronto are deeply and rightly frustrated about our traffic. We have truly world-class congestion. But here's the thing, the way we're going about solving this problem is all wrong.
Transportation staff seem to believe that congestion charges would not reduce or deter traffic from coming into Toronto. Never mind all the global precedents, never mind that we have the tolled 407 highway to look to, and never mind that economics tells us that when the price of something increases, the quantity demanded decreases.
, including higher fines for disobedience. (Interestingly enough, higher fines are supposed to deter people, but congestion charges won't do the same. I'm confused.)
None of this will fix the mess we're in.
This is a case of politics over data and experience. Identify something that people are pissed off about, and then create the illusion that you're doing something to fix it. Good politics. But the reality is that this problem is much trickier to solve. It will require vision and meaningful change. That's a much tougher sell.
Think of this way. Can you identity a large car-oriented global city with millions of people that doesn't have a traffic congestion problem? Even the Katy Freeway in Houston, which counts as many as 26 total lanes, has a congestion problem. And the last time I checked, it didn't have any bike lanes.
Now let's look at the largest city region in the world -- Tokyo. The city proper has about 14 million people and the broader region has about 41 million. This is the entire population of Canada in one city region, and yet it's generally viewed as being one of the most well-run and efficient cities in the world. How do they do it?
Here are the modal splits within Tokyo's 23 wards (2018 data):
36% public transport (rail and bus)
27% passenger cars
23% walking
14% bicycles and motorcycles
Now compare this to the splits in Toronto's census metropolitan area (2021 census data):
76% passenger cars
16% public transport
5% walking
1% bicycles
2% other
Of course, if we were to look at the modal splits within the core of the city they would look quite different and much closer to Tokyo's numbers. This is why it can be so hard to achieve consensus on many city building issues -- we are quite literally a divided and different kind of city.
In the end, this is the root cause of our traffic problem. The vast majority of people in this city region drive. And they are not to be blamed. It's because we've designed this to be the only practical option.
But if we're serious about solving congestion, it's going to require some bold changes. It's going to require reducing this 76% figure. We can fool ourselves into thinking that better construction coordination, fewer bike lanes, and higher fines will somehow solve this enormous and deep-rooted problem, but the inconvenient truth is that they won't.
What we need are real solutions. Is anyone going to take the lead?
Waymo and Uber just announced a partnership that will bring Waymo's autonomous vehicles to the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta. Notably, this is an exclusive partnership, meaning the only way you'll be able to summon a Waymo vehicle in these cities will be through Uber.
The people who follow this space closely, people like Reilly Brennan of Trucks (VC) and Harry Campbell (The Rideshare Guy), think this is a really big deal for a number of reasons.
One, it signals a bifurcation in the industry where there will be companies, like Waymo, that supply autonomous vehicles, and companies, like Uber, that operate them and manage the overall ride hailing marketplace. As part of this deal, Uber is going to handle all of the maintenance and cleaning of the vehicles. This split is similar to the airline industry.
Two, it suggests, and this is Harry's argument, that Waymo needs Uber more than Uber needs Waymo. One of the reasons for this is that a 100% AV fleet is simply too expensive to operate if you're solving for peak demand loads. Because during off-peak times, you then need to pay for downtime.
Uber, on the other hand, doesn't pay for downtime with its human drivers. Most of its drivers are part-time and only plug in when they want to or when the surge pricing becomes too attractive to pass up. So they're the perfect compliment to an AV fleet. Harry argues that this is part of Uber's competitive moat.
And three, it signals that AVs are really starting to arrive, if not already here. The hype cycle certainly hit its trough of disillusionment and everyone switched to thinking that AVs weren't going to happen for many years, if not decades. But now it's happening. City by city.
A beautiful new 43-storey rental building was just approved in Toronto's Liberty Village neighborhood. More info about the project can be found, here. Not surprisingly, some people in the community were against it. Here is a recent article that blogTO published talking about people who live in high-rises not wanting a new high-rise next to them.
One argument that is being made is that the neighborhood is already full. It has reached its density limit. We also hear this about the City of Toronto as a whole. But we know this isn't true. Architect Naama Blonder recently did a study that found we could fit another 12 million people within our boundaries with more efficient land use policies.
This particular site in Liberty Village is also about 400 meters from a future subway stop on the Ontario Line. So it is exactly where we should be putting more density. The problem today is that the area is suffering from a massive infrastructure deficit. The road network is inadequate and the King streetcar hasn't been prioritized.
It's no wonder the area feels full. But the reality is that there are lots of examples of highly livable neighborhoods from around the world with much higher population densities. The difference is that they have the right infrastructure, the right public realms, and the right modal splits.
Liberty Village will get there as well and it's already underway. For a preview of the future, check out the City of Toronto's Public Realm Strategy for the area. It was published in April 2024 and it includes things like new streets, new mid-block connections, and new parks. It is what the area needs and it's exciting to see it happening.
, including higher fines for disobedience. (Interestingly enough, higher fines are supposed to deter people, but congestion charges won't do the same. I'm confused.)
None of this will fix the mess we're in.
This is a case of politics over data and experience. Identify something that people are pissed off about, and then create the illusion that you're doing something to fix it. Good politics. But the reality is that this problem is much trickier to solve. It will require vision and meaningful change. That's a much tougher sell.
Think of this way. Can you identity a large car-oriented global city with millions of people that doesn't have a traffic congestion problem? Even the Katy Freeway in Houston, which counts as many as 26 total lanes, has a congestion problem. And the last time I checked, it didn't have any bike lanes.
Now let's look at the largest city region in the world -- Tokyo. The city proper has about 14 million people and the broader region has about 41 million. This is the entire population of Canada in one city region, and yet it's generally viewed as being one of the most well-run and efficient cities in the world. How do they do it?
Here are the modal splits within Tokyo's 23 wards (2018 data):
36% public transport (rail and bus)
27% passenger cars
23% walking
14% bicycles and motorcycles
Now compare this to the splits in Toronto's census metropolitan area (2021 census data):
76% passenger cars
16% public transport
5% walking
1% bicycles
2% other
Of course, if we were to look at the modal splits within the core of the city they would look quite different and much closer to Tokyo's numbers. This is why it can be so hard to achieve consensus on many city building issues -- we are quite literally a divided and different kind of city.
In the end, this is the root cause of our traffic problem. The vast majority of people in this city region drive. And they are not to be blamed. It's because we've designed this to be the only practical option.
But if we're serious about solving congestion, it's going to require some bold changes. It's going to require reducing this 76% figure. We can fool ourselves into thinking that better construction coordination, fewer bike lanes, and higher fines will somehow solve this enormous and deep-rooted problem, but the inconvenient truth is that they won't.
What we need are real solutions. Is anyone going to take the lead?
Waymo and Uber just announced a partnership that will bring Waymo's autonomous vehicles to the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta. Notably, this is an exclusive partnership, meaning the only way you'll be able to summon a Waymo vehicle in these cities will be through Uber.
The people who follow this space closely, people like Reilly Brennan of Trucks (VC) and Harry Campbell (The Rideshare Guy), think this is a really big deal for a number of reasons.
One, it signals a bifurcation in the industry where there will be companies, like Waymo, that supply autonomous vehicles, and companies, like Uber, that operate them and manage the overall ride hailing marketplace. As part of this deal, Uber is going to handle all of the maintenance and cleaning of the vehicles. This split is similar to the airline industry.
Two, it suggests, and this is Harry's argument, that Waymo needs Uber more than Uber needs Waymo. One of the reasons for this is that a 100% AV fleet is simply too expensive to operate if you're solving for peak demand loads. Because during off-peak times, you then need to pay for downtime.
Uber, on the other hand, doesn't pay for downtime with its human drivers. Most of its drivers are part-time and only plug in when they want to or when the surge pricing becomes too attractive to pass up. So they're the perfect compliment to an AV fleet. Harry argues that this is part of Uber's competitive moat.
And three, it signals that AVs are really starting to arrive, if not already here. The hype cycle certainly hit its trough of disillusionment and everyone switched to thinking that AVs weren't going to happen for many years, if not decades. But now it's happening. City by city.
A beautiful new 43-storey rental building was just approved in Toronto's Liberty Village neighborhood. More info about the project can be found, here. Not surprisingly, some people in the community were against it. Here is a recent article that blogTO published talking about people who live in high-rises not wanting a new high-rise next to them.
One argument that is being made is that the neighborhood is already full. It has reached its density limit. We also hear this about the City of Toronto as a whole. But we know this isn't true. Architect Naama Blonder recently did a study that found we could fit another 12 million people within our boundaries with more efficient land use policies.
This particular site in Liberty Village is also about 400 meters from a future subway stop on the Ontario Line. So it is exactly where we should be putting more density. The problem today is that the area is suffering from a massive infrastructure deficit. The road network is inadequate and the King streetcar hasn't been prioritized.
It's no wonder the area feels full. But the reality is that there are lots of examples of highly livable neighborhoods from around the world with much higher population densities. The difference is that they have the right infrastructure, the right public realms, and the right modal splits.
Liberty Village will get there as well and it's already underway. For a preview of the future, check out the City of Toronto's Public Realm Strategy for the area. It was published in April 2024 and it includes things like new streets, new mid-block connections, and new parks. It is what the area needs and it's exciting to see it happening.
