Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Nationwide across the US, transit ridership is only at about 70% of where it was in 2019 before the pandemic. But this is not the case in all cities around the world. According to this recent Bloomberg article, Madrid, Hong Kong, and Paris are all above their 2019 ridership levels. Seoul and Shanghai are also close at just over 90%, and London is at 85%.
So this problem of fewer people riding transit seems to be a North and South American phenomenon. Rio de Janeiro is at 73%, Mexico City is at 70%, and San Francisco is somewhere near or at the bottom at 44%. The obvious explanations for this are that Europe and Asia are generally denser and less car-oriented, their return-to-office patterns have been much stronger (less WFH), and their governments probably care more about transit (and spend more money on it).
Broadly speaking, I think this is all true, but I'd love to know more precisely what's driving these differences. Because it's not exactly obvious. Consider, for example, Paris and London. Paris is at 103% of its 2019 levels, whereas London is only at 85%. Why is that? Both cities share a lot of similarities. They have a river that weaves through the middle, they're dense, they have lots of trains, and both are alpha global cities.
So why the delta? What exactly is Paris doing that is encouraging more transit usage?
Charts via Bloomberg
Toronto never adopted a shared e-scooter program. And as far as I know, e-scooters in general are technically illegal to use on our public roads, though this illegality seems to be minimally enforced. But today, more cities around the world seem to be following suit.
Paris — which had become the leading scooter market in Europe — voted to ban them in 2023 (albeit with an extremely low voter turnout). Shared e-scooters are now also banned in Madrid, Malta, and in all of the Netherlands.
But I continue to think that this is a shame. I first tried a shared e-scooter in Lisbon in 2019. And at the time, I wrote "I now know what all the fuss is about!" It was a lot of fun. I used it to ride out to the Museum of Art, Architecture, and Technology. I also said that they would be arriving in Toronto imminently. Nope.
The main concerns seem to be around urban clutter and riders using them irresponsibly. But I think you could say the exact same thing about cars, and we're not going to ban those anytime soon.
So I agree with what Karen Vancluysen says in this recent CityLab interview: Keep e-scooters on the menu and give people as many transportation alternatives as possible. They're not going to work for everyone, but that's okay. They're one option in a broader mobility network.
Cover photo by Kseniia PENKOVA
The autonomous vehicle narrative has historically gone something like this: remove the labor component of rides (i.e. drivers) and rides will become significantly cheaper. Then, people won't need or want to own a car anymore. They'll just Uber or Waymo or whatever around.
But as Waymo provides in and around 250,000 paid trips per week in the 4 cities in which it operates, the opposite has proven to be true — at least so far. A recent report by Obi (an app that aggregates real-time ride pricing) has just revealed the following for San Francisco during the period of March 25 to April 25, 2025:
In other words, Waymo is more expensive than Uber and Lyft, especially for shorter distances. Is this right? Well, Waymo may not have to pay drivers, but they do own and operate their own cars. Uber and Lyft do not. This represents a very different cost structure.
Nationwide across the US, transit ridership is only at about 70% of where it was in 2019 before the pandemic. But this is not the case in all cities around the world. According to this recent Bloomberg article, Madrid, Hong Kong, and Paris are all above their 2019 ridership levels. Seoul and Shanghai are also close at just over 90%, and London is at 85%.
So this problem of fewer people riding transit seems to be a North and South American phenomenon. Rio de Janeiro is at 73%, Mexico City is at 70%, and San Francisco is somewhere near or at the bottom at 44%. The obvious explanations for this are that Europe and Asia are generally denser and less car-oriented, their return-to-office patterns have been much stronger (less WFH), and their governments probably care more about transit (and spend more money on it).
Broadly speaking, I think this is all true, but I'd love to know more precisely what's driving these differences. Because it's not exactly obvious. Consider, for example, Paris and London. Paris is at 103% of its 2019 levels, whereas London is only at 85%. Why is that? Both cities share a lot of similarities. They have a river that weaves through the middle, they're dense, they have lots of trains, and both are alpha global cities.
So why the delta? What exactly is Paris doing that is encouraging more transit usage?
Charts via Bloomberg
Toronto never adopted a shared e-scooter program. And as far as I know, e-scooters in general are technically illegal to use on our public roads, though this illegality seems to be minimally enforced. But today, more cities around the world seem to be following suit.
Paris — which had become the leading scooter market in Europe — voted to ban them in 2023 (albeit with an extremely low voter turnout). Shared e-scooters are now also banned in Madrid, Malta, and in all of the Netherlands.
But I continue to think that this is a shame. I first tried a shared e-scooter in Lisbon in 2019. And at the time, I wrote "I now know what all the fuss is about!" It was a lot of fun. I used it to ride out to the Museum of Art, Architecture, and Technology. I also said that they would be arriving in Toronto imminently. Nope.
The main concerns seem to be around urban clutter and riders using them irresponsibly. But I think you could say the exact same thing about cars, and we're not going to ban those anytime soon.
So I agree with what Karen Vancluysen says in this recent CityLab interview: Keep e-scooters on the menu and give people as many transportation alternatives as possible. They're not going to work for everyone, but that's okay. They're one option in a broader mobility network.
Cover photo by Kseniia PENKOVA
The autonomous vehicle narrative has historically gone something like this: remove the labor component of rides (i.e. drivers) and rides will become significantly cheaper. Then, people won't need or want to own a car anymore. They'll just Uber or Waymo or whatever around.
But as Waymo provides in and around 250,000 paid trips per week in the 4 cities in which it operates, the opposite has proven to be true — at least so far. A recent report by Obi (an app that aggregates real-time ride pricing) has just revealed the following for San Francisco during the period of March 25 to April 25, 2025:
In other words, Waymo is more expensive than Uber and Lyft, especially for shorter distances. Is this right? Well, Waymo may not have to pay drivers, but they do own and operate their own cars. Uber and Lyft do not. This represents a very different cost structure.
They also have a more inelastic supply base, meaning they have cars whether demand is high or not. Whereas in the case of Uber and Lyft, supply can be variable. That's the idea behind "surge pricing" — to induce more drivers onto the road when it's needed the most.
Fewer Waymos also means that wait times are going to be longer and that their cars are probably spending more time driving around without paying passengers. That's a cost.
Whatever the reasons, lots of people seem to be willing to pay the premium. Part of this almost certainly has to do with the novelty of riding in an autonomous vehicle. I'd pay more if they were in Toronto today. But another reason seems to be that people really appreciate being in the car alone. I guess it's akin to driving your own car.
It, of course, remains to be seen how Waymo's cost structure and pricing model will evolve over time, but I have no doubt that privacy will remain a feature people are willing to pay something for. In the modern world, we are all going to have at least two places of solitude: bathrooms and Waymos.
Cover photo by gibblesmash asdf on Unsplash
They also have a more inelastic supply base, meaning they have cars whether demand is high or not. Whereas in the case of Uber and Lyft, supply can be variable. That's the idea behind "surge pricing" — to induce more drivers onto the road when it's needed the most.
Fewer Waymos also means that wait times are going to be longer and that their cars are probably spending more time driving around without paying passengers. That's a cost.
Whatever the reasons, lots of people seem to be willing to pay the premium. Part of this almost certainly has to do with the novelty of riding in an autonomous vehicle. I'd pay more if they were in Toronto today. But another reason seems to be that people really appreciate being in the car alone. I guess it's akin to driving your own car.
It, of course, remains to be seen how Waymo's cost structure and pricing model will evolve over time, but I have no doubt that privacy will remain a feature people are willing to pay something for. In the modern world, we are all going to have at least two places of solitude: bathrooms and Waymos.
Cover photo by gibblesmash asdf on Unsplash
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