Subscribe
As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
City Observatory tracks something that they call “The Young and Restless.” It refers to the segment of the US population that is between 25-34 years old and has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
We know that people in this age bracket tend to be relatively mobile and that the likelihood of moving decreases as people age. So it’s a potential leading indicator for the city regions of the future. It also adds a bit more nuance to the urban vs. suburban growth debate.
According to City Observatory, between 2012 and 2016 the number of 25 to 34 year olds with a 4-year degree living in one of the 53 largest largest cities in the US increased by 19%. This is compared to a 4% increase in the overall population in these cities.
This increase in young well-educated adults is also happening 50% faster in the largest cities. So the young and educated still seem to be demanding city living, even if the world is arguably still suburbanizing.
Below is a snapshot of City Observatory’s latest data. I’ve sorted the list by total change in population (2012 to 2016). Happy to see Philadelphia near the top. If you do it based on percentage, Detroit wins with a 64% increase.
As a kid growing up in the suburbs, I got my driver's license the day I turned 16. Being able to drive was a big deal. But we know that this desire to drive has been changing in profound ways. Here's some recent stats on the percentage of licensed drivers in the US by age (taken from the WSJ):
In 1983, about 46% of 16-year-olds had a driver's license. By 2014, this number had dropped to 24.5%, which is the lowest it has been in recent years, and was probably impacted by the broader economy. As of 2017, this number was up to about 26%.
If you're a car company, I would imagine that these are pretty important numbers. They represent the top of the sales funnel. Most people probably like to have a driver's license in hand before they go out and buy a car.
Supposedly, some people in Detroit are betting that young people will still eventually buy a car. And when they do, it'll be a nice big one like an SUV or a truck. But, the data suggests that it is not just young people who are eschewing driving.
Here's some data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (via NPR), looking at the proportion of licensed drivers in the US by all age categories:
While the biggest drop has certainly happened among younger generations, licensing is still down for older cohorts. Based on these numbers, we don't hit parity until somewhere around 50 to 54 years old.
And the only cohorts where licensing has increased significantly are when people reach over 55. Over 70 is up by a huge margin -- more than the drop among 16 year olds -- which is probably a symptom of people living longer.
Some of this decrease among young people can probably be attributed to delayed family formation and people living in denser urban environments, where it is more convenient to get around without a car. But I don't think that's all of it.
Which suggests to me that the race to autonomy is a pretty important one to win.
City Observatory tracks something that they call “The Young and Restless.” It refers to the segment of the US population that is between 25-34 years old and has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
We know that people in this age bracket tend to be relatively mobile and that the likelihood of moving decreases as people age. So it’s a potential leading indicator for the city regions of the future. It also adds a bit more nuance to the urban vs. suburban growth debate.
According to City Observatory, between 2012 and 2016 the number of 25 to 34 year olds with a 4-year degree living in one of the 53 largest largest cities in the US increased by 19%. This is compared to a 4% increase in the overall population in these cities.
This increase in young well-educated adults is also happening 50% faster in the largest cities. So the young and educated still seem to be demanding city living, even if the world is arguably still suburbanizing.
Below is a snapshot of City Observatory’s latest data. I’ve sorted the list by total change in population (2012 to 2016). Happy to see Philadelphia near the top. If you do it based on percentage, Detroit wins with a 64% increase.
The result is that golf and country club memberships are down about 20% since 1990. In the 90s there were more than 5,000 full service clubs of this type in the US. And today it’s somewhere south of 4,000. In the 90s, about 9 million people aged 18 to 34 played golf (again in the US). And today that number is somewhere around 6.2 million. All stats taken from the article.
But at the same time, the article argues that Millennials may still like country clubs, they’re just about 10 years behind because of higher education, travel, and delayed family formation. The article also talks about the rise of private clubs like Soho House, as well as others. And so here’s one counter argument: Millennials are open to private clubs and many have the means. They just want them to be, well, cooler and more urban.
As a young person who largely fits within the trend line described in the CityLab article, my gut tells me that this is largely a case of changing consumer preferences and urbanizing wealth. That’s why we’re seeing established country club operators open up “urban basecamps.” But that’s my view. What is yours? Let us know in the comments below.
Photo by Andrew Rice on Unsplash
For the full list of cities, check out City Observatory.
The result is that golf and country club memberships are down about 20% since 1990. In the 90s there were more than 5,000 full service clubs of this type in the US. And today it’s somewhere south of 4,000. In the 90s, about 9 million people aged 18 to 34 played golf (again in the US). And today that number is somewhere around 6.2 million. All stats taken from the article.
But at the same time, the article argues that Millennials may still like country clubs, they’re just about 10 years behind because of higher education, travel, and delayed family formation. The article also talks about the rise of private clubs like Soho House, as well as others. And so here’s one counter argument: Millennials are open to private clubs and many have the means. They just want them to be, well, cooler and more urban.
As a young person who largely fits within the trend line described in the CityLab article, my gut tells me that this is largely a case of changing consumer preferences and urbanizing wealth. That’s why we’re seeing established country club operators open up “urban basecamps.” But that’s my view. What is yours? Let us know in the comments below.
Photo by Andrew Rice on Unsplash
For the full list of cities, check out City Observatory.
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog