
I just landed in Miami for the annual Elevate conference that is taking place here at the Fontainebleau Hotel. I'm an ambassador for the event and I'm also moderating a panel on Tuesday afternoon about resident experiences in multi-family buildings. So for the next few days, I suspect I'll be writing about the conference and some of my takeaways.
I love Miami. It's one of my favorite cities. I love the weather. I love the vibe. I love the entrepreneurial spirit. And I love that Spanish can feel like the first language here. It's almost always the first thing I hear when I get off the plane and there's something oddly comforting about that even though I don't speak a word of it. Maybe once I've mastered French I'll turn to Spanish.
What's less great about Miami, though, is the traffic. Between Art Basel and the herd of elephants on the beach that everyone is talking about right now, the traffic in this city is bad. Like, Toronto bad. As I write this post, I'm looking out the window at Collins Avenue, and it's been completely jammed the entire time.
The Miami region is car oriented and car-oriented cities do not deal well with sudden spikes in demand. It usually breaks them. They're also harder to scale up. So this region will have some big decisions to make as it continues to grow. That said, I'm noticing a lot more bike lanes across Miami and Miami Beach, and lot more people cycling and using e-scooters. That's good.
I know there's a fairly large contingent of Toronto real estate people here this week, so if you're also in town and attending Elevate, please do get in touch.
Elevate Miami, which I wrote about last month, just announced a number of new speakers and, more specifically, a number of new high-rise development projects that will be discussed at the conference. They are (not an exhaustive list):
Dolce & Gabbana Residences, Miami
Mercedes-Benz Places, Miami
Aman and One High Line Residences, New York
Indian Creek Residences & Yacht Club, Miami Beach
Edition Residences, Miami
AGE360, Curitiba, Brazil
What should be clear from this list is that Miami is like a different planet. It is one of the places where the richest people in the world go to spend their money, much of it on real estate. Because of this, you can think of this real estate as a luxury good, which is why so many of them are now branded.
In economic terms, a luxury good is typically defined as a good where demand increases -- more than what is proportional -- as incomes rise. For example, if a person's income goes up by 1%, but their demand for a particular thing goes up by 5%, then this thing would be considered a "luxury good," as opposed to a "normal good."
The technical definition is an income elasticity of demand that is greater than 1. More simply, this just means that as someone starts making more money, they will start spending a greater percentage of their income on luxury goods. This is in contrast to "necessity goods," where it doesn't matter how much money you make, you only need so much toilet paper, for example.
What all of this suggests is that as people from all over the world get rich, they are likely to want more branded residences in a place like Miami. However, the flip side of this dynamic is that as incomes fall, the demand for luxury goods should, in theory, also fall more than what is proportional. It works both ways.
So I'll be curious to hear -- from the developers at Elevate -- how things are going right now. We're at a time in the real estate cycle where everyone is rethinking their strategies. Or maybe, Miami truly is a different planet.

Boy, population densities can be so misleading. The typical approach is to just take the number of people and divide it by a given area. This then gives you something like X number of "people per square kilometer." The problem with this approach is that there are countless factors that can skew your result.
Hong Kong, for instance, is really dense. But as a city, it also has a lot of green space, mountains, and other undeveloped areas. Only about a quarter of Hong Kong's land is developed. So when you divide total people by its administrative boundary area, it is going to appear less dense than it really is.
One alternative approach is to use a method known as population-weighted density. The way this works is that you take the average densities of smaller more granular subareas and then weight them by the population of each subarea. It is a little more complicated to calculate, but the overall intent is to try and capture a density figure that more accurately reflects what the average person experiences on the ground.
And this is exactly the method that Jonathan Nolan decided to use in his new website CityDensity.com. What his site allows you to do is compare population-weighted densities across various cities, and then see how it tapers off as you move outward from their city centers.
Once again, it is hard to beat Paris' supremely dense mid-rise built form:

Well, that is, until you check out Hong Kong:

Charts: CityDensity.com
