What is clear is that these platforms are growing very quickly and that COVID-19 was of course great for the business of eating at home. The demand is there.
But what is also clear is that food-delivery is a low-margin business that depends on scale. Last-mile and single-point delivery is tough. This is despite the fact that consumers have shown to be willing to pay a fairly significant premium in exchange for the conveniences of on-demand meals.
Here's a chart from McKinsey that looks at the unit economics of delivery apps:
It is a race to capture "stomach share."
But surely this evolves and gets further optimized with the continued rise of things like "ghost kitchens" and maybe autonomous delivery robots.
I remember driving home one night during the thick of the pandemic and placing an order on Uber Eats for pickup. When I arrived, I found a small food truck and one lonely guy in the middle of an empty (and wintery) parking lot on Lake Shore East. He handed me my poke bowls and I was on my way.
This is what is happening behind our apps and it's changing the way we eat.
McKinsey published a report last month on the future of electric vehicles and what that will mean for the industry. Many countries, cities, and companies have set some sort of electrification target for 2030. The US is targeting 50% EVs by 2030. Several countries have announced a flat-out end to ICE sales by 2030. And a number of OEMs have committed to the same.
But there are already cities, such as Oslo, which have reached EV majority. In July of this year, its passenger EV adoption figure was 66%, making Norway a global leader. What is clear is that the electrification of personal transport is well underway. Anecdotally, we are seeing that play out with the number of people now inquiring about electric charging infrastructure in our buildings (here in Toronto).
This move to electric will have many repercussions, including a major shift in the entire supply chain (which McKinsey outlines in their report). While ICE vehicles and EVs still both have things like tires, EVs require a whole slew of new and now growing components:
It is also going to force new public infrastructure:
But in parallel to the electrification of personal vehicles, we are also seeing a number of other trends and shifts. The electrification of public transport (Shenzhen has already electrified its entire bus and taxi fleets). The rise of micro-mobility (things like e-scooters). The ongoing push to discourage driving in urban centers. And the continuing goal of autonomous vehicles.
What all of this suggests to me is that the electrification of personal vehicles is only part of the story. The entire mobility landscape in our cities is changing and it will probably look a lot different by 2030.
Here's a weekly round up of links and articles that you may find interesting. The topics cover the sorts of things that we usually talk about on this blog.
The latest Mackay Laneway House update is now live on the Globizen Journal. The ground floor steel is complete, with framing currently underway. The post has some background on the challenges faced in order to get to this stage.
Brick comparison. Here's a recent tweet of mine. I'm curious if any of you can tell the difference between these two brick finishes and if you have a clear preference. One of them is stamped concrete and the other is real brick (precast concrete with brick slips).
Pools as art. Apparently this is a trend right now, but it's not necessarily a new one. Pablo Picasso accidentally created one when he "signed" the bottom of one in Spain back in the early 1960s. A pool would be fun right now. [FT paywall]
Alley house in King's Cross by architect David Adjaye is currently on the market for £6.5 million. Lots of black. I love the mint green room with the exposed concrete ceiling. Oh, and there's a pool.
Nightclubs are, not surprisingly, really struggling. Most have been closed since March. Unlike restaurants, you can't really hack together a solution with outdoor dining, heat lamps and takeout. They're predicated on people being proximate to each other. [Sorry, another FT paywall]
SPACs are so hot right now, particularly in the world of Chamath Palihapitiya and Social Capital. A good follow-up to this week's earlier post about $IPOB's merger with real estate startup Opendoor.
Monocle has just published a new book about "gentle living." It's a guide to "slowing down, enjoying more and being happy." I'm trying to do more of this, or at least be more mindful about it. It doesn't always/usually work. Perhaps I need this book.
"Decade of the home." Opinion piece about the current desire for suburban over urban locations. If you're a regular reader of this blog, you'll know that I am steadfast in my belief that urban life is going to prove to be incredibly resilient on the other side of this.
McKinsey report about the impact that lockdown is having on digital adoption, e-commerce penetration, and the overall customer experience. You'll need to enter some information in order to download the PDF, but it's free.
Photo: Lost House by Adjaye Associates via The Modern House
