As a developer, or other market participant, it's easy to be pessimistic about the current housing market in Toronto. It's a challenge to make new projects work. That's suboptimal from a business and city-building standpoint, and for Type A personalities who thrive on accomplishment. But today, let's look at some of the positives and opportunities that are already here or are likely to happen going forward.

• If you're a developer who has been doing the same thing for decades, now is the opportunity to rethink your model and innovate. Why? Because the old model isn't working, and who knows if it ever will again when the fun times return.

• Already, we are seeing a renewed focus on end-user buyers and renters. This is healthy for the market. It signals a return to fundamentals and a deeper focus on our customers. What kind of homes do people actually want to live in?

• At the same time, if you're in need of a home, now is an excellent time to buy or rent. Similarly, for developers, now is an excellent time to buy sites, provided you've found a project that works or you have the balance sheet to be patient.

• Modular construction and mass timber are getting a lot more airtime. They aren't a silver bullet in this market, but these things take time and it's positive that more developers and builders are exploring and testing out their options.

• Crisis forces the hand of government. Already, we have seen a new HST rebate, cuts to development charges, and other helpful measures. I also think cities are more receptive to negotiation. If you have a wild and crazy idea that just might work, go talk to them!

• As incumbents struggle with their legacy assets and deals, the market is creating more space for new entrants and fresh ideas. I have no doubt that we will see a new generation of developers and entrepreneurs emerge during the next cycle.

Never let a good crisis go to waste, as they say.

Would you add anything to this list?

Cover photo by Lennon Kong on Unsplash

Many of you have probably visited or seen videos of the Maeklong Railway Market in Bangkok. (I've done the latter, not the former.) It is one of the largest seafood markets in Thailand and it is literally housed on the railway's tracks. Every time a train passes through, the entire market needs to be pulled up and relocated. Even the awnings that cover the market need to be collapsed. The videos I've seen have all been taken from grade. But the below video (via Vala Afshar on Twitter), showing the market in plan view (from what was likely a drone), is arguably even more impactful. There isn't a foot of wasted space.

CIBC World Markets recently published this report by Benjamin Tal talking about the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets. Here is an excerpt:

“But when the fog clears it will become evident that the long-term trajectory of the market will show even tighter conditions. The supply issues facing centres such as Toronto and Vancouver will worsen and demand is routinely understated. Short of a significant change in housing policies and preferences, there is nothing in the pipeline to alleviate the pressure.”

It’s a good read. Worth your time.

One stat that stood out and directly relates to some of the topics that we frequently talk about on this blog is the shift in Toronto from low-rise to high-rise housing.

In the report there’s a chart showing the “change in [housing unit] completions” in 2016 as compared to 2000. The switch from low-rise to high-rise is almost 1:1 in Toronto. In other words, we substituted high-rise housing for low-rise housing. 

I think this speaks volumes about the fundamentals underpinning the Toronto condo/apartment market. We are continuing to build up because it is the future of housing in this city.