Here's an interesting figure from the Missing Middle Initiative showing the change in population of 0-4 year olds in Southern Ontario between 2016 and 2021:

What this shows is that the population of young children declined in the Greater Toronto Area and in Ottawa, but increased dramatically in areas further out, such as in Lanark County (outside of Ottawa) and Oxford County (between London and Hamilton). If you know what home prices are like in Southern Ontario, then this probably makes intuitive sense to you. Families are, as the old saying goes, "driving until they qualify."

But let's look at the data more closely. What the Missing Middle uncovered was that the metric most highly correlated with the population growth of children under the age of 5 was the increase in the supply of housing with three or more bedrooms. More specifically, though, it was highly correlated with an increase in the number of larger owner-occupied homes. Rental housing did not have the same correlation.

They go on to remind us that correlation is not causation, which is true. But regardless, there's a clear recipe here: If cities want to become more family-friendly, house more young children, and not lose them to exurban areas, then they need to figure out a way to unlock more 3-bedroom homes at price points that more families can afford.

Note: As is typical on this blog, I am using the term home to include all housing types, not just single-family housing. A home is not a housing type. It is simply a place where people, families, and households live permanently. Associating the term home with only single-family housing creates a cultural bias that I believe is suboptimal for cities.

Create Streets recently published this review of the proposed Shoreditch Works development project in Hackney, London. And one of the interesting things they did as part of it was something they call a visual preference survey. What this means is that they showed a statistically representative sampling of over two thousand British people some before and after images so they could choose which they prefer.

Here's how they responded:

As you can see, from a visual perspective, there was/is strong support for the proposed development. At least according to these three views. This is despite the fact that the proposal is, of course, taller than what's there today. What I think this starts to show is that good design matters. People respond positively to beauty. And, that it's important to show what will happen at street level above all. This is how we all experience cities.

Visual preference surveys aren't all that common. I'm not sure I've seen one conducted for a new development. But it's a great idea and I plan to borrow it from Create Streets.

Cover photo from Shoreditch Works

Last month, the UK ended its non-domiciled tax regime. This change had been announced in 2024, but its effective date was April 2025. The way this program worked was that if you lived in the UK but were "domiciled" somewhere else, you could limit the amount of taxes that you had to pay in the UK.

Only income and gains earned in the UK and foreign income and gains brought into the UK were taxed. If foreign income stayed abroad, it was not taxed. There was still an annual charge for long-term residents of the UK, but at a high level, this is how the tax regime worked.

The advantage for a rich people is that they could decide to reside in the UK because, hey, London is pretty cool, but at the same time they could nominate a lower-tax country as their domicile. For non-rich people, this became a controversial program, and so it was swapped for tax regime based on residency.

The reason I mention this is because it seems to be having a direct impact on Milan's real estate market. Since 2017, Italy has had a flat tax regime that allows new residents to pay a fixed annual tax rate of €200,000, regardless of how much money they earn abroad.

This has proven to be attractive among rich people and, between 2017 to 2022, the program attracted 2,730 individuals according to the Financial Times. But then the UK made its change and so Italy decided to colloquially rebrand its program to "svuota Londra", which translates to "empty London" in Italian.

It became about taking direct advantage of what the UK had done. And it seems to be working even better. In 2024, approximately 2,200 high-net-worth individuals relocated from the UK to Italy, with Milan being the primary destination. This has created a notable uptick in the luxury property market — more transactions and higher prices.

Whether you agree with these policy decisions or not, they will have an impact on the fortunes of London and Milan going forward. In 2023 alone, it is estimated that individuals holding "non-dom" status in the UK paid almost £9 billion in taxes and contributed to the creation of some 44,000 jobs.

Part of this is now flowing south to Milan.

Note: None of this is tax advice.

Cover photo by ANASTASIIA BUCHINSKAIA on Unsplash