Bruno Carvalho has just published a new book that is right in the wheelhouse of this blog. It's called The Invention of the Future: A History of Cities in the Modern World.
The book starts in the mid-18th century with cities like Lisbon, Paris, and London. However, more than being just a history of cities, it is (from what I've read) the story of how city builders throughout history have tried to predict and create the future, only to often get it wrong.
In the words of Carvalho (via CityLab): "The constant of urbanization is change, so we have to always imagine our solutions as being contingent."
The same is, of course, true today. For example, building tunnels for Tesla cars may seem like a clever and futuristic solution to urban traffic congestion, except that it's hard to imagine it actually working (also via CityLab):
"One of the values of history is to give us a sharper sense of what’s new in the present. Many people imagine solutions that to them represent the great rupture, but that’s not always the case. The tunnels are a good example; they bring together the problems of cars having very low carrying capacity and subways being very hard to build. That doesn’t strike me as a very futuristic approach to mobility, but rather one that just hasn’t learned enough about the past."
I now have Carvalho's book on my reading list, and I thought I would share it here in case some of you would like to do the same.
Cover photo by Michiel Annaert on Unsplash
The Monte Palace Hotel on São Miguel Island opened in 1989.
Perched up 500 or so meters above sea level, the hotel offered panoramic views of Lagoa das Sete Cidades. It had 88 rooms, two restaurants, a bar/nightclub, and a total construction area of approximately 13,104 m². Notably, it was the first luxury five-star hotel in the Azores. And in 1990 it was even awarded "Hotel of the Year" in Portugal.
Then, the place closed — just 18 months after its opening.
Today, it looks like this:
Supposedly the hotel failed for a number reasons. It was hard to get to. It lacked on-site amenities. It didn't, for example, have a pool. And the unpredictable (and often foggy) weather of the Azores made it so that a lot of the time you couldn't even see the main attraction, which was the view. The sponsors may have also overshot the market at the time.
In 2017, the abandoned property was finally listed for sale at €1.5 million. Level Constellation ended up buying it for an undisclosed amount at the end of the year. They are a Lisbon-based developer founded by Chinese entrepreneurs. The plan was/is to reopen another 5-star hotel, but that hasn't happened yet. Though there's certainly no lack of visitors to the property today!
I don't know how you address the weather thing, but nowadays there are many other 5-star hotels on the archipelago. Regardless, my bet is that the existing structure will end up being demolished. I mean, it's been abandoned and unmaintained for about 35 years.
I first wrote about Bird, the electric scooter company, back in March 2018. At the time, they had just raised $115 million and their pitch was that they were going to solve the last-mile mobility problem. This is a real problem, and so lots of urbanist-type people, including myself, were excited. I then rode my first shared scooter in 2019 in Lisbon, and I had a ton of fun. I wrote: "Now I know what all the fuss is about."
But it wasn't all puppy dogs and ice cream. People started getting annoyed by the clutter that dockless scooters were creating in our cities (see above photo). Safety also became a great concern, and so they started getting viewed as a nuisance. Toronto never allowed them (despite my insistent blog posts) and Paris -- which had arguably become the scooter capital of the world -- banned them in early 2023.
Now there's this: Bird announced this week that it has filed for bankruptcy. The once unicorn, which had its stock halted back in September because its market cap fell below $15 million for too long, needs cash. According to FT, they have about $3.25 million the bank, but they have an immediate need for $16.8 million to meet some "financial obligations" in January.
This is maybe not unexpected. But I think the important question is: Is this an existential moment for micro-mobility and shared scooters (i.e. this is a fundamentally bad business), or is it more of a case that money used to be mostly kind of free, and now it's not? Either way, I think there's no question that the latter is going to cause further distress throughout 2024.
But the question remains: Can shared scooters be a sustainable business?
My day job is not to be a scooter analyst. But I do think that a number of things are true:
Riders seem to really like using electric scooters and so top-line demand continues to grow.
There are many headwinds for this business ranging from winter usage to politics.
Barring regulation, there appears to be low barriers to entry.
Lime has already claimed to be the first micromobility company to post a full profitable year.
These first and last points are important ones. I believe it's always going to be easier to get people onto electric scooters and bikes than onto regular bikes; people will generally always choose what is easiest. At the same time, here is a company that has allegedly figured out how to offer this service profitably. Assuming these two things remain true, I think we'll continue to find scooters in our cities.
Photo by Gemma Evans on Unsplash