The unbundling of the home
Why self-storage continues to be a growing real estate asset class
I have never rented a self-storage unit. I have stored things at my parents' places during certain periods of my life, such as when I moved to the US for grad school, but as a general rule, I never seem to conclude that I have too much stuff and that I should maybe rent some storage. However, I do on occasion fantasize about having a garage or large "man cave" where I could store an assortment of exotic snowboards, bicycles, and other life essentials. I mean, who doesn't, right?
In any event, I seem to be in the minority, because self-storage is a growing real estate asset class:
Investors have dramatically increased their allocation to self-storage over the last several years [in the US]. A rush into the asset class occurred from 2020 to 2022, when transaction volume hit $50 billion, far exceeding the $35 billion spent during the entire seven‑year period from 2013 to 2020, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Transaction volumes are now normalized but remain well above their pre‑pandemic baseline.
It proved to be the best-performing sector in the NCREIF Property Index from 2005 to 2022, with returns since 2010 nearly double that of the overall index.
So what's driving this? Some of the explanations include a frozen housing market, millennials who haven't yet bought a garage and are starved for room, and small-scale entrepreneurs who use it as cheap warehouse space. According to some reports, this latter use case accounts for nearly a third of total demand. And this makes sense to me. But generally, I have tended to apply an egocentric bias to this asset class. My mind discounts it because I don't personally use it.
One way to look at self-storage is that it represents the "unbundling of residential real estate." Housing has gotten so expensive that we continue to search for ways to make it smaller and more efficient. One second-order consequence of this is that storage now needs to be disaggregated and moved to an off-site location where land is cheaper and the build costs are lower. From this perspective, there are strong structural reasons for the sector's growth.
There are also noteworthy differences between Canada and the US. Americans use self-storage at roughly 2 to 3x the rate of Canadians when measured by square footage per capita. Is this because Americans are bigger consumers and have more stuff? Or is it because the industry is more mature and built out at this point? It's likely both of these factors.
According to Avison Young, the supply of new self-storage in Canada is projected to nearly double year-over-year from under 1 million square feet in 2025 to over 1.8 million square feet in 2026. Another specific demographic factor contributing to this growth is Canada's aging population. People are downsizing and then needing to put their stuff somewhere. How long this stuff stays in storage, I don't know, but it's there.
I think the personal tension I have with self-storage is that there's a big part of me that aspires to have less stuff. When I travel, I take great pride in often packing only a carry-on. There's something liberating about having everything I need in one roller. Less is more. But then again, I could really use a new commuter bicycle and I have been meaning to get into splitboarding. How much do those storage units cost again?
Cover photo by Aga Adamek on Unsplash
A closed-end real estate fund is an investment vehicle with a finite life (call it anywhere from 5 to 12 years, plus extension options). These types of funds have a specific timeframe for raising capital, investing, harvesting the investments they have made, and then distributing proceeds to investors. This is in contrast to an open-ended fund, also known as an "evergreen" fund, which has an infinite life and can accept investments throughout its lifespan.
As a result of these differences, closed-end funds are often used for opportunistic or value-add opportunities where the defined strategy is to buy, fix/develop, and then sell, whereas open-ended funds are often used for core opportunities, where the assets are intended to be held indefinitely for income. Neither fund structure is inherently good or bad; each has its benefits and drawbacks.
However, the perceived weighting of these benefits and drawbacks shifts during market cycles. Since global real estate markets started to turn downward in 2022, the ability to be patient and think long-term has become a key ingredient for survival. You may have done everything you said you would do perfectly, but the market may not be there to grant you the liquidity you had originally planned for.
Now the question becomes: How patient can and should we be?
In my opinion, the greatest opportunities exist for (1) the larger firms that have a strong balance sheet and defensible income-producing properties and (2) the smaller, nimble firms that can capitalize on the dislocation in the market (and aren't overly burdened with legacy assets that are sucking up resources and capacity).
This perspective is true of other sectors as well. This weekend, venture capitalist Chris Dixon of a16z wrote a post titled, "The long game for crypto." In it, he alludes to the current market downturn (ETH is down nearly 60% from its all-time high) and says that "we play the long game at a16z and a16z crypto: Our funds are structured with 10+ year horizons because building new industries takes time."
The fact that he wrote this post says a lot, I think, about the psyche of investors today. The perceived weighting has changed, and people are now investing and building more for the future. As the late Charlie Munger once said, "The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting."
Cover photo by KAi'S PHOTOGRAPHY on Unsplash
When it’s hard to find great deals, it’s easy to find money.
When it’s hard to find money, it’s easy to find great deals.
This tweet by Sean Sweeney is, of course, 100% true. It is also true of markets and investing in general. When everyone feels confident, money becomes available, and then returns fall. There's too much competition. But when everyone is scared and liquidity dries up, bargains emerge. Now there's very little competition.
Warren Buffett has made an entire career out of playing this paradox. It's his well-known "be greedy when others are fearful" mantra. But in order to do this, you need to be patient, you need to have the resources, and you need to have the right emotional temperament when things are in meltdown.
I am seeing this first-hand in Toronto real estate. To give just one example, development land is right now worth, oh I don't know, roughly half of what it was before (a broad generalization).
There are very good reasons for this. The value of land depends on what you can do with it, and if you can't do anything with it, then it's not worth very much. But as soon as you can once again do something with it, and clarity returns to the market, the bargains disappear.
So to find the "great deals" you have to be willing to wade into areas where most of the market is unwilling to go in the current moment. Put differently, there's money to be made when you're right about something that most people think is wrong, or when you're able to do something that most people can't do for whatever reason.
All of this is easier said than done, but I think about Sean's tweet a lot these days. It's easy to find reasons to say no right now. But here's the approach I'm trying my best to take: it's a great time to be in real estate. In fact, it's a generational opportunity. And so it's my job to find the great deals.
Cover photo by Sean Pollock on Unsplash