As per tradition around here, I like to bookend the new year with two posts: a post that revisits my random predictions for the year and a post that talks about what might happen in the year to follow. Today's post is the former. So let's see how I did:
I thought the interest rate hikes would come to an end in Q1-2023. But that didn't happen until the summer. I also thought this would lead to a mild recession in Canada. Technically, we are not actually in one, but according to some, we kind of are.
I thought the real estate sector would start seeing some distress in the first half of the year, and that a new equilibrium would be found in the second half. This proved to be overly optimistic in terms of timing. A lot ended up being on pause for the entire year, and I now think that my forecast was at least a year too early. The sea change is still underway.
As per tradition around here, I like to bookend the new year with two posts: a post that revisits my random predictions for the year and a post that talks about what might happen in the year to follow. Today's post is the former. So let's see how I did:
I thought the interest rate hikes would come to an end in Q1-2023. But that didn't happen until the summer. I also thought this would lead to a mild recession in Canada. Technically, we are not actually in one, but according to some, we kind of are.
I thought the real estate sector would start seeing some distress in the first half of the year, and that a new equilibrium would be found in the second half. This proved to be overly optimistic in terms of timing. A lot ended up being on pause for the entire year, and I now think that my forecast was at least a year too early. The sea change is still underway.
Given the overall slowdown in real estate, I felt that construction costs had to see some softening. This did, in fact, happen with some of the "earlier trades", such as shoring and excavation, and we did see some specific trade pricing, such as concrete formwork, come down by as much as 30%. The smart cost consultants we work with now expect to see overall hard costs come down by a further 5-6% next year in Toronto. This makes sense given construction starts are way down.
With me expecting the interest rate increases to stop in Q1, I thought that pre-construction condominium sales would return in a meaningful way by the spring. While we did see some buoyancy around that time, it was short lived. Sales remained nearly shutoff for the entire year, but for maybe a handful of projects. The more successful projects tended to be outside of the Toronto core and at lower price points.
With respect to home prices in more tertiary/fringe markets, my sense then, as it is now, was that these prices would remain below the peaks for many years. In addition to the upward momentum created by low rates, my view was/is that some of this pricing was the result of a bet on urban decentralization. I don't think that has played out as many expected it to, so that's why I think it will be many years before the pricing we saw in early 2022 returns.
The momentum around "expanding housing options" in our low-rise neighborhoods is many years in the making. And a lot of progress was made in 2023. Here in Toronto, we adopted new multiplex policies that now allow fourplexes plus an accessory dwelling (so 5 homes in total) on an as-of-right basis. I continue to believe that this momentum is only going to grow. I also think we will see the arrival of more mixed-use opportunities.
I believed that, broadly speaking, urban transit ridership would remain below pre-pandemic levels for all of 2023. This proved to be the case for most US and Canadian cities. But things are improving. For Canada as a whole, it looks like we'll see full recovery sometime in 2024 based on this trend line.
I thought 2023 was going to be the year I took my inaugural ride in an autonomous vehicle. Sadly, this didn't happen. The sector as a whole also saw some setbacks. Hopefully I'll get a chance next year.
I assumed that Apple would finally release its augmented reality device. And though they didn't technically releaseVision Pro, they did announce it. So I guess that counts for something. I also thought that 2023 would be a big year for "phygital" goods. Maybe it was. Or maybe it was more of a building year. A lot of people are curious to see how Vision Pro does in 2024. It's not set up for the mass market, just yet, but I think it will do exactly what it is supposed to once it's out in the wild.
Finally, crypto. I know that a lot of you like to skip over these posts, but it is something that I feel strongly about. A year ago, though, I was pretty bearish on Solana. Boy was I wrong. Solana ended the year as the best performing major crypto asset -- up 933% at the time of writing this. Oops! However, Ether is also +91%, and I continued to dollar-cost average in all throughout the year.
Next up: What will, or more accurately, what might happen in 2024.
BlogTO recently asked: Is it a good time or a bad time to buy a condo in Toronto right now? My unsolicited opinion is that if you are someone who would like a home in Toronto, now is an excellent time to buy it. But that's not actually what I want to talk about today.
If you read the post, you'll come across this line: "She emphasized that these are unprecedented interest rates..." Hmm. I think it's important to point out that these are not unprecedented rates. Rates today are certainly higher than they have been for about two decades. But they've been even higher before and, if you go back to say the 1980s, rates today still look historically low.
We just got used to ultra low rates and now we need to adjust to them being higher. And we will. The first step is feeling confident that rates won't go even higher in the short term. Because if you think you know where rates are going to hang out, you can then make decisions around that.
Given the overall slowdown in real estate, I felt that construction costs had to see some softening. This did, in fact, happen with some of the "earlier trades", such as shoring and excavation, and we did see some specific trade pricing, such as concrete formwork, come down by as much as 30%. The smart cost consultants we work with now expect to see overall hard costs come down by a further 5-6% next year in Toronto. This makes sense given construction starts are way down.
With me expecting the interest rate increases to stop in Q1, I thought that pre-construction condominium sales would return in a meaningful way by the spring. While we did see some buoyancy around that time, it was short lived. Sales remained nearly shutoff for the entire year, but for maybe a handful of projects. The more successful projects tended to be outside of the Toronto core and at lower price points.
With respect to home prices in more tertiary/fringe markets, my sense then, as it is now, was that these prices would remain below the peaks for many years. In addition to the upward momentum created by low rates, my view was/is that some of this pricing was the result of a bet on urban decentralization. I don't think that has played out as many expected it to, so that's why I think it will be many years before the pricing we saw in early 2022 returns.
The momentum around "expanding housing options" in our low-rise neighborhoods is many years in the making. And a lot of progress was made in 2023. Here in Toronto, we adopted new multiplex policies that now allow fourplexes plus an accessory dwelling (so 5 homes in total) on an as-of-right basis. I continue to believe that this momentum is only going to grow. I also think we will see the arrival of more mixed-use opportunities.
I believed that, broadly speaking, urban transit ridership would remain below pre-pandemic levels for all of 2023. This proved to be the case for most US and Canadian cities. But things are improving. For Canada as a whole, it looks like we'll see full recovery sometime in 2024 based on this trend line.
I thought 2023 was going to be the year I took my inaugural ride in an autonomous vehicle. Sadly, this didn't happen. The sector as a whole also saw some setbacks. Hopefully I'll get a chance next year.
I assumed that Apple would finally release its augmented reality device. And though they didn't technically releaseVision Pro, they did announce it. So I guess that counts for something. I also thought that 2023 would be a big year for "phygital" goods. Maybe it was. Or maybe it was more of a building year. A lot of people are curious to see how Vision Pro does in 2024. It's not set up for the mass market, just yet, but I think it will do exactly what it is supposed to once it's out in the wild.
Finally, crypto. I know that a lot of you like to skip over these posts, but it is something that I feel strongly about. A year ago, though, I was pretty bearish on Solana. Boy was I wrong. Solana ended the year as the best performing major crypto asset -- up 933% at the time of writing this. Oops! However, Ether is also +91%, and I continued to dollar-cost average in all throughout the year.
Next up: What will, or more accurately, what might happen in 2024.
BlogTO recently asked: Is it a good time or a bad time to buy a condo in Toronto right now? My unsolicited opinion is that if you are someone who would like a home in Toronto, now is an excellent time to buy it. But that's not actually what I want to talk about today.
If you read the post, you'll come across this line: "She emphasized that these are unprecedented interest rates..." Hmm. I think it's important to point out that these are not unprecedented rates. Rates today are certainly higher than they have been for about two decades. But they've been even higher before and, if you go back to say the 1980s, rates today still look historically low.
We just got used to ultra low rates and now we need to adjust to them being higher. And we will. The first step is feeling confident that rates won't go even higher in the short term. Because if you think you know where rates are going to hang out, you can then make decisions around that.
Last week was "forum week" in Toronto. (That is, it was the Toronto Real Estate Forum.) And as is the case every year, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC, opened up the event with his usual macro view of the world. For those of you who missed it (as I did), here are some of his key points (via RENX):
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate will ultimately/likely settle into the 2.75-3% range (currently it sits at 5%). He expects rates to start coming down this summer.
Inflation is down, but we're not yet at the 2% target. The "last mile" is always the toughest.
But as we know, the BofC will take a recession over high inflation, any day.
The mortgage market has fallen faster than in the early 90s recession. Tal said that the residential real estate market in Canada is right now facing "the biggest test" since then.
Canada is in what he calls a "per capita recession". But for the million or so immigrants that the country accepted over the last year, we'd be in a full-blown official recession.
Finally, he called this correction in the housing market both "real" and "healthy"; he spoke about normalcy returning in 1-2 years; and he posited that the market will be "crazy" when it does return because of a supply deficit.
This last point is an important one. New housing supply is mostly shut off right now. I say mostly because there are obviously still projects under construction, and there have been and there will continue to be some successful launches. But by and large, most developers are waiting right now, principally because the absorption isn't there. They have no other choice.
But Canada continues to grow. People from around the world continue to want to move here. And there continues to be a need for a lot more new housing. So when the market does return -- and it, of course, will -- there is going to be a supply-demand imbalance. And as is always the case in real estate, there will be a lag in responding to this imbalance.
Last week was "forum week" in Toronto. (That is, it was the Toronto Real Estate Forum.) And as is the case every year, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC, opened up the event with his usual macro view of the world. For those of you who missed it (as I did), here are some of his key points (via RENX):
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate will ultimately/likely settle into the 2.75-3% range (currently it sits at 5%). He expects rates to start coming down this summer.
Inflation is down, but we're not yet at the 2% target. The "last mile" is always the toughest.
But as we know, the BofC will take a recession over high inflation, any day.
The mortgage market has fallen faster than in the early 90s recession. Tal said that the residential real estate market in Canada is right now facing "the biggest test" since then.
Canada is in what he calls a "per capita recession". But for the million or so immigrants that the country accepted over the last year, we'd be in a full-blown official recession.
Finally, he called this correction in the housing market both "real" and "healthy"; he spoke about normalcy returning in 1-2 years; and he posited that the market will be "crazy" when it does return because of a supply deficit.
This last point is an important one. New housing supply is mostly shut off right now. I say mostly because there are obviously still projects under construction, and there have been and there will continue to be some successful launches. But by and large, most developers are waiting right now, principally because the absorption isn't there. They have no other choice.
But Canada continues to grow. People from around the world continue to want to move here. And there continues to be a need for a lot more new housing. So when the market does return -- and it, of course, will -- there is going to be a supply-demand imbalance. And as is always the case in real estate, there will be a lag in responding to this imbalance.
