Category: Housing

• Toward more rental housing

  The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area is expected to see 6,821 new rental homes completed this year. This is a “multi-decade high”, according to Urbanation’s latest rental report. Indeed, you need to go back to the 1970s to get rental supply figures of this magnitude.

  A big part of this has to do with the fact that we are now taxing rental housing less. Toward the end of last year, the federal government removed their portion of the HST on new rental housing and, then in November, the province of Ontario followed with theirs.

  This was “a big first step” for the industry, according to leading apartment developers like Fitzrovia.

  But there’s another reason that many developers are now looking to purpose-built rentals: fewer people are buying new condominiums. And if you can’t presell condos, well then you’re going to need to find another path forward for your land.

  However, flipping over to rental is not necessarily a panacea. The margins are generally razor thin (+/- 50 bps). It requires more and different capital (typically). And you need to believe in some fairly non-consensus assumptions (high rent growth, low cap rates, etc.).

  It’ll be interesting to see how many developers are able to successfully flip over to rental and how sustained this rental supply number will be.

  2024.04.30

• Rents are lower, but what does that ultimately mean?

  Paris is the first city in France to implement some form of residential rent control. The first came in 2014 (enacted in the market in 2015), but this was later removed in 2017. The second came in 2019, and this current program remains in place until November 2026, at which time it will be reviewed.

  But given that it has already been in place for a number of years, people have started to analyze it’s effectiveness. Here is a study by Atelier Parisien d’Urbanisme (APUR) that was published this month.

  The report is in French, but I can tell you that, what they did, was compare the Paris region to 8 other cities in France — all of which do not have the same rent controls. They were: Aix-en-Provence, Grenoble, Marseille, Nantes, Nice, Strasbourg, Toulon, et Toulouse. These were allegedly chosen because their housing markets are thought to be similar to that of Paris’.

  What they found was that from July 2019 to July 2023, legislated controls in Paris lowered rents by approximately 4.2%, compared to where they would have been without any market intervention.

  At the same time, they noticed that these same controls seemed to become more effective over time. From July 2019 to June 2020, they lowered rents by 2.5%, but from July 2022 to June 2023, they lowered rents by 5.9%.

  Finally, they also found that the controls seemed to impact smaller places the most. For apartments between 8 and 18 m2, rents were 10.2% lower than expected during July 2019 and July 2023.

  This is all interesting stuff, but in many ways, it is expected. Rent controls are intended to depress rental growth. That’s the whole point. And based on this data from APUR, it is working in Paris.

  But the really tough questions pertain to the possible knock-on effects. If rents are 4.2% lower, but operating costs are now growing faster than rents, then this is a problem for the housing market. You’re on an unsustainable path.

  And if lower rents mean that fewer developers are going to build new housing, then this is also a problem, because less supply will eventually translate into more upward pressure on rents. I don’t know for sure that this is happening in Paris, right now, but these are crucial considerations.

  It’s never as simple as just looking at rents and thinking lower is better for long-term affordability.

  2024.04.24

• XS in Philadelphia, not Tokyo

  

  This is the sort of housing project that you’d fully expect to find in Tokyo. Seven homes built on a small urban lot measuring only 11 feet wide by 93 feet deep. But in this case, it’s not Tokyo; it’s Chinatown, Philadelphia, where a residual lot that was created when the sunken Vine Street Expressway was carved through the middle of the city in the 1950s.

  Designed by Philadelphia-based Interface Studio Architects (ISA), the project contains 7 levels of livable space. What’s interesting, though, is that from a building code perspective this is still a 4-story building. There are two mezzanine levels that don’t get counted (and that create some great double-height spaces). This also seems to be what allowed them to get away with a single egress stair in the middle of the building.

  

  The other technique that was used to maximum density is facade projections. Philadelphia’s zoning code allows for projections up to 3 feet in the horizontal dimension. And if you look at the above plans, you’ll see that these were used to “top up” or extend the site’s 11 foot width to 14 feet, when it made sense to do so from a programming standpoint. The result is some very livable spaces.

  

  I am endlessly fascinated by these sorts of projects because they demand creativity and because you ultimately end up unlocking something that the market had been overlooking. Here is an example of a small leftover urban parcel that was previously used as surface parking for two cars. Now it’s seven beautiful homes.

  Photos/drawings: ISA

  2024.04.21

• Investors vs. end users

  Over the years, we have spoken a lot about the role that investors play in Toronto’s pre-construction condominium market. In the media, they are often spoken about pejoratively. They are seen as being a well-capitalized group that outbids end-users for a limited supply of new housing.

  But on the other hand, we know that (1) they have been a major contributor to new rental housing in this city (they filled the gap after we decided in the 1970s that we didn’t like purpose-built rentals) and that (2) they play an important function in getting new housing financed.

  For better or for worse, we know that, without an investor market, there would have been far fewer new homes constructed over the last cycle. Pre-sales are generally always a prerequisite for a construction loan. And the fastest, and therefore safest, way to get pre-sales is/was to target investors.

  But the world has changed since then. Investor demand has diminished. So much so that you could argue that the opposite is now true.

  I was speaking to my friend Christopher Bibby this morning and he reminded me that end-users, who are passionate about specific projects and neighborhoods, are the more resilient demand base during a downturn. Because if you need a place to live, you need a place to live.

  Perhaps it’s no coincidence that every single sale that we have had at Junction House this year has been to an end-user who moved in.

  2024.04.20

• More sellers than buyers

  This week, Urbanation released its condominium market update for Q1-2024. And I’d like to point out two data points. Firstly, across the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA), there were 1,461 new condominium sales for the quarter.

  This is the lowest quarterly total since Q1-2009 (the global financial crisis) and the second lowest total since the mid-1990s. (Remember when we spoke about right now being the toughest market since the early 90s?)

  Secondly, during this same time period, 2,361 new condominiums began construction across the region. This represents a 52% annual decrease. So all in all, fewer people are buying new homes and fewer new homes are starting construction.

  What is obvious is that the market is slow right now. What is not obvious is what happens next. It’s unknowable. There’s risk. My gut is that the market will come back more slowly than many people are expecting, or perhaps hoping. There’s inventory that needs to work its way through the system first.

  But ultimately it will come back. Toronto is one of the greatest cities in the world and there remains a need for more homes. Which is why I continue to believe that, if you are in the market for a new one, now is arguably a wonderful time. You get to buy when most others aren’t.

  2024.04.19

• Les chambres de bonne

  

  This evening in French class we discussed a Parisian apartment type called the chambre de bonne. The direct translation is “maid’s room”, and it’s exactly what it sounds like. A small one-room apartment that is found on the top floor of bourgeoisie apartment buildings. Indeed, nearly one-third of Paris’ entire supply of chambres de bonne are in the wealthy 16th arrondissement.

  Their original function was to house servants. The reason they were on the penthouse floor is because, when they emerged in Paris in the 1830s, the elevator hadn’t yet been invented. And so this was the least desirable floor. The people staying in these rooms typically worked for the people living on the lowest floors in the same building. That’s where you wanted to be. Fewer stairs.

  Fast forward to today, and it is estimated that Paris has somewhere around 114,000 chambres be bonne (also known as chambres de service). They are also occupied by a broad cross section of different people:

  

  But it means living small. The smallest allowable size for an apartment in Paris is 9 m2 (area) or 20 m3 (volume). Meaning, even if the surface area is under the 9 m2 threshold, it might still be able to pass as livable if the ceilings are tall enough. But under these figures, and the place can’t be rented. And supposedly, about half of Paris’ chambres de bonne do not meet these minimum thresholds.

  These requirements are immediately interesting to me — not only because they’re much smaller than what we allow in Toronto — but because most people don’t think of real estate in terms of volumes. Ceiling heights, yes. But when have you ever seen or measured the volume of an apartment? It’s clearly appropriate in this instance given that many of these apartments sit under sloping rooflines.

  But the most interesting question, I think, is whether this housing type is functionally obsolete. On the one hand, Paris is an expensive city, and these apartments represent what is likely the most affordable housing option. Go on YouTube and you’ll find lots of students giving tours of their compact room-apartments. On the other hand, census data shows that occupancy within his housing type has been steadily declining since at least the 1960s:

  

  Based on these figures from 2011, only about 17,300 chambres de bonne are occupied as a principal residence. This doesn’t seem like a lot for a big city like Paris. (It’s around 1.25% of its entire housing supply based on my rough math.) The rest of these apartments appear to be vacant, ineligible for renting, or serving as a secondary space for owners in the same building.

  This represents an ~85% vacancy rate, which begs the question: Is there something more productive that Paris could be doing with all of this under-utilized penthouse space? Though perhaps it’s helpful to start with: would you live in 9 square meters or 97 square feet? This is smaller than the minimum size of a parking space in Toronto.

  Photo by Matt Boitor on Unsplash; Charts: Atelier Parisien d’Urbanisme

  2024.04.10

• New single-family houses in the US are getting smaller — at least right now

  I came across this chart in Charlie Bilello’s weekly newsletter:

  

  What it shows is the average size of new single-family houses in the US. And what it tells us is that median and average floor areas are falling. They are now roughly back to where they were in 2010, following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This is noteworthy because it shows that homebuilders are responding to lower affordability. Interest rates went up, buyers can now afford less home, and so the market is responding by shrinking square footages to reduce sticker prices. It is the same reason that condominiums also tend to follow a similar size trendline (at least here in Toronto); it’s about affordability. That said, if you go back even further in the above chart — to 1999 — the trendline is up and to the right. Meaning that when the market allows, the average new single-family house is generally getting bigger. That also tells us something.

  2024.04.01

• San Francisco is highly proficient at making housing more expensive

  

  If you’re looking to block new development, drive up the cost of housing, and appear “progressive” all at the same time, one generally effective technique is to do it under the guise of historic preservation. San Francisco is really good at this, as are many other cities. And it works because, who doesn’t think that history is important?

  This exact thing just transpired in San Francisco, where earlier this year Supervisor Aaron Peskin passed an ordinance enacting new density controls for most development in the Northeast Waterfront Historic District, the Jackson Square Historic District, and the Jackson Square Historic District Extension (solid neighborhood names).

  Of course, sometimes you can run into resistance when you’re trying to push through new anti-housing policies. And in this case, San Francisco Mayor London Breed actually vetoed Peskin’s bill. In a letter dated March 14, 2024, she wrote:

  Restricting new housing runs counter to the goals of our Housing Element, which the Board of Supervisors unanimously approved just over a year ago. It also runs counter to what we need to do to make this City a place that creates opportunities for new homes for the people who need them today and for future generations growing up in San Francisco.

  This ordinance passes off anti-housing policy in the guise of historic protections. Existing rules already protect against impacts to historic resources. I believe we can add new homes while also supporting and improving the vibrancy of our unique neighborhoods. Many areas of San Francisco, including eastern neighborhoods like the South of Market, Potrero Hill, and the Mission, have also already removed density limits to encourage new housing.

  However, her veto was ultimately overridden by the Board of Supervisors and so, as far as I understand it, the above density controls stand.

  What’s particularly frustrating about this outcome — sarcasm now firmly off — is that it so obviously reeks of NIMBY selfishness. Here’s an elaborate infographic created by Max Dubler explaining what many in San Francisco believe is the real reason behind this downzoning:

  

  Here is also a street view image from the area, along The Embarcadero:

  

  But like I said, San Francisco seems to be really adept at this sort of maneuvering.

  2024.03.30

• Project Profile: Iconik Apartments, Prague

  

  Today, let’s take a look at the Iconik Apartments in Prague.

  Completed in 2023 and designed by edit!, this mid-rise project is split into two distinct volumes — a 9-story one and an 8-story one. This was done to respond to both the surrounding context and the way that the parcels were divided on the site prior to redevelopment. In total, the building is 5,433 m2 and has 48 apartments.

  

  

  There are 3 levels of below-grade parking, which are accessed via a single parking elevator (pictured above). Based on the one example parking plan provided (which has 13 spaces), I’m guessing the project has somewhere around ~39 total parking spaces (13 x 3). This is a higher parking ratio (39/48 = 0.81) than I would have expected for what looks to be a central and urban location.

  The color of the traffic coating in the garage is nice, though.

  

  

  The lobby is simple. It contains one elevator and one staircase running up the building. I like how prominent and accessible they made the latter. It encourages you to take the stairs if you live on one of the lower floors.

  

  Above is what one of these lower floors might look like. There are two dual-aspect apartments on either end of the plate, meaning they have windows facing both the street and the rear courtyard. There are also a handful of studio apartments facing this same courtyard.

  

  Finally, above is what the outdoor spaces look like for the penthouses at the top. The clear heights appear a little low, but presumably they were working to an overall building height.

  I like studying this scale of project because it is a housing type that we should be building more of in our cities. So it is helpful to see how others are doing it. In the case, there are a number of obvious takeaways: no onerous loading/servicing requirements on the ground floor, a single parking elevator in lieu of a space-consumptive ramp (though less parking would would be even more ideal), and a single means of egress throughout the building.

  If you’re looking to build at this scale, these are good places to start.

  Drawings/Photos: edit! and BoysPlayNice

  2024.03.24

• The Walk-Up

  

  Today on the blog, I thought we’d feature a new fourplex being developed here in Toronto at 2343 Gerrard Street East called The Walk-Up. Designed by Studio JCI and presented by Paul Johnston of Unique Urban Homes, this is the first in a series of “missing middle” projects now being developed by Urbinco.

  Housed on your typical single-family lot, The Walk-Up is somewhere between 3-4 stories and has four homes: a garden suite, a ground suite, a center suite, and a sky suite. And each is family-oriented both in terms of design and size. They all have over 1,000 square feet of interior space, have two bedrooms, and have access to outdoor space.

  In other words, it is exactly the kind of housing solution that Toronto needs a lot more of! Thankfully, this form of housing has been permitted (as-of-right) in Toronto since May 2023. Unfortunately, there are still many municipalities and politicians who don’t seem to get it. But that’s okay. This is usually how things go. Toronto leads, and then others follow.

  For more information on The Walk-Up, click here.

  2024.03.23