Today, I'm excited to share that I'll be attending the second annual Elevate event this December as an industry ambassador. This means I get to ride alongside industry celebrities like Norm Li. (He better be DJ'ing.)

Put on by Zonda, in partnership with Livabl and ARCHITECT Magazine, the event is focused exclusively on "the art of high-rise luxury living." Everything from the overall state of the housing market to how to sell branded residences.

Here's the agenda and here's the list of speakers.

I wasn't able to attend last year, but I heard from a number of industry friends that it was very well done, which is why I agreed to participate this year. That now means I have a discount code you can all use if you'd like to attend -- BRANDONVIP30.

For those of you who like art and culture things, the event also happens to fall right after Art Basel. This was done on purpose, and so now you have at least two good reasons to be in Miami Beach in December.

Shane Dingman's recent piece in the Globe and Mail about shrinking lot sizes raises two interesting points.

One, new low-rise lot sizes seem to be shrinking and that's probably a normal market outcome. Similar to the way in which average unit sizes have been generally coming down for mid-rise and high-rise product, it is a way to maintain some semblance of affordability in the face of ever-rising costs.

The average price of a new condo in the City of Toronto last quarter was nearly $1,300 psf. That means that if you had an average unit size of 1,000 square feet, you'd have an average selling price of $1.3 million (to state the obvious). Not everyone can afford this ticket price, and so there's downward pressure on unit sizes in order to get the face prices down.

Two, developer margins aren't increasing just because home prices have been going up. At best, they've remained constant (Shane provides a quantitative example in his article). But there are also many cases where margins are getting squeezed as a result of rising costs.

All of this to say that I think we can continue to expect downward pressure on lot sizes and unit sizes as the Toronto region continues to grow.

February data (2018) for the new home market in the Greater Toronto Area was released this past week by BILD and Altus. I seem to have gotten into the habit of writing about this every month.

The benchmark price for new low-rise single-family housing was down slightly from January to $1,219,874, but still up 12.8% from a year prior.

The benchmark price for new high-rise housing was up a whopping 39.5% year-over-year to $729,735. But part of this is being driven by an equally dramatic increase in average unit sizes.

Here is the relevant graph:

The story continues to be about tight supply, historically low developer inventories, and a lack of affordable low-rise product. 

As I have argued many times before on this blog, I believe these factors — and in particular the last one — are, at least partly, driving this recent pop in high-rise pricing. People are priced out and now searching for substitutes.

So my prediction continues to be that we will see a convergence (i.e. diminishing spread) between new low-rise and high-rise pricing.

That will also bring about design and product changes on the high-rise side.

Today, I'm excited to share that I'll be attending the second annual Elevate event this December as an industry ambassador. This means I get to ride alongside industry celebrities like Norm Li. (He better be DJ'ing.)

Put on by Zonda, in partnership with Livabl and ARCHITECT Magazine, the event is focused exclusively on "the art of high-rise luxury living." Everything from the overall state of the housing market to how to sell branded residences.

Here's the agenda and here's the list of speakers.

I wasn't able to attend last year, but I heard from a number of industry friends that it was very well done, which is why I agreed to participate this year. That now means I have a discount code you can all use if you'd like to attend -- BRANDONVIP30.

For those of you who like art and culture things, the event also happens to fall right after Art Basel. This was done on purpose, and so now you have at least two good reasons to be in Miami Beach in December.

Shane Dingman's recent piece in the Globe and Mail about shrinking lot sizes raises two interesting points.

One, new low-rise lot sizes seem to be shrinking and that's probably a normal market outcome. Similar to the way in which average unit sizes have been generally coming down for mid-rise and high-rise product, it is a way to maintain some semblance of affordability in the face of ever-rising costs.

The average price of a new condo in the City of Toronto last quarter was nearly $1,300 psf. That means that if you had an average unit size of 1,000 square feet, you'd have an average selling price of $1.3 million (to state the obvious). Not everyone can afford this ticket price, and so there's downward pressure on unit sizes in order to get the face prices down.

Two, developer margins aren't increasing just because home prices have been going up. At best, they've remained constant (Shane provides a quantitative example in his article). But there are also many cases where margins are getting squeezed as a result of rising costs.

All of this to say that I think we can continue to expect downward pressure on lot sizes and unit sizes as the Toronto region continues to grow.

February data (2018) for the new home market in the Greater Toronto Area was released this past week by BILD and Altus. I seem to have gotten into the habit of writing about this every month.

The benchmark price for new low-rise single-family housing was down slightly from January to $1,219,874, but still up 12.8% from a year prior.

The benchmark price for new high-rise housing was up a whopping 39.5% year-over-year to $729,735. But part of this is being driven by an equally dramatic increase in average unit sizes.

Here is the relevant graph:

The story continues to be about tight supply, historically low developer inventories, and a lack of affordable low-rise product. 

As I have argued many times before on this blog, I believe these factors — and in particular the last one — are, at least partly, driving this recent pop in high-rise pricing. People are priced out and now searching for substitutes.

So my prediction continues to be that we will see a convergence (i.e. diminishing spread) between new low-rise and high-rise pricing.

That will also bring about design and product changes on the high-rise side.